119
FXUS64 KHUN 311644
AFDHUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Huntsville AL
1144 AM CDT Sun Aug 31 2025

...New AVIATION...

.NEAR TERM...
(Rest of Today and Tonight)
Issued at 959 AM CDT Sun Aug 31 2025

High pressure at the surface will gradually shift a little
further to the east today, but still remain the dominant weather
feature across the Tennessee Valley. As a result, expect
generally mostly sunny to perhaps partly cloudy conditions at
times through the remainder of the day. Highs once again will be
warm and seasonable for this last day of August, peaking in the
upper 80s to lower 90s, with ample sunshine. We could have a few
passing clouds overnight, but think that overall mostly clear and
calm conditions will be the rule again, resulting in a good setup
for radiational cooling. Low temperatures in the lower 60s will be
common again.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Monday through Wednesday)
Issued at 959 AM CDT Sun Aug 31 2025

A couple of shortwaves rippling southeast along a broad upper-
trough across the eastern CONUS will pivot into the Mid South on
Monday (Labor Day), bringing a return of low chances (20-30%) for
showers and thunderstorms during the afternoon and evening hours.
An even stouter shortwave will pass into the Tennessee Valley
Tuesday into Wednesday, helping to force a frontal boundary into
the region. Some added shear from this feature, combined with
appreciable instability could allow for at least a few strong,
more organized thunderstorms capable of gusty winds and locally
heavy rainfall. PoPs have added increased slightly to 30-60%
during this window and think everyone will have a decent shot of
seeing at least some precipitation during the Monday to Wednesday
timeframe. The added cloud cover and rain chances will help lower
high temperatures by a few degrees, especially Tuesday and
Wednesday, with highs in the upper 70s to mid 80s.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through Saturday)
Issued at 842 PM CDT Sat Aug 30 2025

By mid week, a low pressure system is forecast to push southward
into the Great Lakes region- bringing the shortwave southeastward
into the Ohio River and northern Tennessee Valleys. A subsequent
cold front is forecast to form and push southeastward by Thursday.
There continues to be slight disagreement on the eventual
placement of the aforementioned shortwave and adjacent cold front,
however, trends continue to point towards the feature remaining
north of our CWA (primarily in middle Tennessee). Therefore,
continued with blended guidance of low to medium chances of
showers/thunderstorms Wednesday through Thursday. The LREF shows
limited CAPE (~300-500 J/kg) with relatively weak shear and
unimpressive low level lapse rates (~6 C/km) Wednesday evening. We
will continue to monitor this trend as we push into early next
week. Post-frontal conditions are forecast to be cooler and dry
with dew points dropping into the low 50s by the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1143 AM CDT Sun Aug 31 2025

VFR conditions will be the predomiant flight category at each
terminal through the period with light winds and a mostly clear
sky.

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...None.
TN...None.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...AMP
SHORT TERM....AMP
LONG TERM....HC
AVIATION...AMP.24