955
FXUS64 KHUN 161459
AFDHUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Huntsville AL
959 AM CDT Wed Jul 16 2025

...New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM...

.NEAR TERM...
(Rest of Today through Thursday)
Issued at 958 AM CDT Wed Jul 16 2025

A hot and humid day is underway with temperatures warming into
the middle to upper 80s at this hour, with dew points in the
middle 70s. Some mixing may lower the dew points a bit this
afternoon, but heat index values still look to reach ~105F in the
HSV and Shoals metro areas where the hottest temperatures are
near 95F. Thunderstorm chances remain low (< 20%), with the
greatest chance in our eastern counties aided by terrain and a
slight increase in convergence as an inverted trough associated
the tropical wave in the northern Gulf swings through GA into
eastern AL. With low temperatures only in the middle 70s, and
another day of heat index values of 105+ in our western 2/3 of the
area, will extend the existing Heat Advisory through early
Thursday evening. Thunderstorm chances go up to 20-30% Thursday
afternoon, but coverage should be limited to go ahead and extend
the advisory.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Thursday night through Saturday)
Issued at 958 AM CDT Wed Jul 16 2025

As the tropical wave moves west into the central Gulf Coast
region Thursday night into Friday, deep southerly flow will be
induced increasing moisture further into the TN valley. The
inverted trough will have lifted north and west of our forecast
area, but CAMs and short range models all indicate an increasing
chance of showers and thunderstorms (mainly during the daytime and
early evening hours) into the low to medium range. Chances will
be a bit higher north of our area due to the proximity to the
convergence zone/surface boundary. Uncertainty with regard to the
track of the remnants of the tropical system remain into the
weekend. However, the westerlies in the Plains transport a
shortwaves and/or MCV east-southeast into the lower OH and TN
valleys Saturday, keeping at least medium chances of additional
showers and thunderstorms in the forecast. Areas of heavy rain
will be the main aspect of these storms given weak shear and a
very moist profile.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 914 PM CDT Tue Jul 15 2025

Long range models show mid level ridging retrograding across the
Gulf coast through the start of next week. This unfortunately
will amount to more of the same for the long term forecast. High
pressure will keep elevated dew points and temperatures anchored
to the TN Valley. This will amount to apparent temps near and just
over 100 nearly everyday of the long term forecast. Likewise,
daily afternoon rain chances look to remain in the forecast.
Around and along the northern edge of the ridge, NW flow may
support MCS development in the mid Mississippi and Ohio Valley as
we head into next week in. We will be keeping an eye on this trend
should dying MCS try to drop into our forecast area.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 636 AM CDT Wed Jul 16 2025

VFR conditions are expected at KHSV and KMSL through the TAF
period. Diurnal convection will be isolated across north Alabama
this afternoon, thus low confidence in direct impacts to
terminals but will monitor trends for any needed amendments.

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT Thursday evening for
ALZ001>007-016.

TN...None.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...17
SHORT TERM....17
LONG TERM....RAD
AVIATION...JMS