525
FXUS64 KHUN 210415
AFDHUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Huntsville AL
1115 PM CDT Thu Aug 20 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 741 PM CDT Thu Aug 20 2026

 - A Slight Risk (level 2 of 5) for severe thunderstorms exists
   this evening into the overnight with primary risk of damaging
   winds.

 - Locally heavy rainfall, frequent lightning are also hazards
   with the thunderstorms tonight.

&&

.NEAR TERM...
(Tonight and Friday)
Issued at 741 PM CDT Thu Aug 20 2026

Convective clusters have redeveloped in middle and southwest TN
into northeast MS that have now edged into far northwest AL this
evening. This is along or just ahead of a cold front where dew
points have pooled in the upper 70s to lower 80s. The primary
hazards are gusty winds and locally heavy rain as MUCAPEs of
4000-6000 j/kg were located over much of the area, especially NW
AL into western TN. Effective shear of 25-35kt was developing over
northeast AR into southeast MO and western TN this evening as a
5h wind max of 30-40kt enters this region which will also aid the
maintenance of these storms possible into the overnight hours.
Patchy fog may develop late tonight into early Friday morning.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Saturday through Sunday Night)
Issued at 741 PM CDT Thu Aug 20 2026

Any remaining MCS clusters will shift south of the TN valley by
Friday morning. There is a very low chance of a shower or
thunderstorm along the cold front that will slip southeast into
the TN valley on Friday, but the chance is less than 15%. Dry
weather should last through Saturday. But then another northwest
flow shortwave and cold front arrives Saturday night which may
generate showers and thunderstorms in the eastern OH valley into
eastern TN. It is unclear if thunderstorms will be able to
develop southwest into the TN Valley Saturday evening or
overnight. We will monitor model trends, but for now most areas
will remain dry in the forecast. Dew points should drop into the
60s by Sunday behind this front which will be a welcome relief
from the higher dew points we have experienced lately.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday through Thursday)
Issued at 741 PM CDT Thu Aug 20 2026

A mean trough axis will remain in place over the eastern CONUS with a
strong ridge over the southern Rockies into the southern Plains. This
will keep a fairly active northwest flow regime over the central
Plains and upper Midwest through the OH and TN valleys. This will
keep at least low chances of showers and thunderstorms in play, with
the big question begin details of MCS timing and intensity. It`s far
too early to discern this with much confidence, so will side with the
NBM in this forecast. High temperatures will remain near normal in
the upper 80s to lower 90s with lows in the 60s to around 70.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1115 PM CDT Thu Aug 20 2026

Clusters of +TSRA will gradually shift southeast and end over the
next couple of hours. Areas of BR/FG are expected to develop as
well, affecting both KHSV and KMSL with MVFR and possibly IFR
conditions due to low visibility and low ceilings. Conditions
should return to VFR by ~16Z if not sooner.

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...None.
TN...None.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...17
SHORT TERM....17
LONG TERM....17
AVIATION...17