006
FXUS64 KHUN 040018
AFDHUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Huntsville AL
618 PM CST Tue Nov 3 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 917 AM CST Tue Nov 3 2026

 - Gusty southeasterly winds 20-25 mph expected through tonight.

 - High chances for showers begin tonight with a low chance for
   strong to severe thunderstorms.

 - Widespread 1-2 inches of rainfall with locally higher amounts
   up to 4 inches is expected which may result in flash flooding.

&&

.NEAR TERM...
(Tonight)
Issued at 204 PM CST Tue Nov 3 2026

Only small changes in the latest forecast. SPC has expanded the
Marginal (level 1 out of 5) risk further to the east and now
encompasses areas along and west of I-65. The main reasoning for
this is the morning CAMs show instability remaining around 500-750
J/kg as the line of storms arrives from MS. Low level shear is
quite impressive with 0-1km shear around 30 knots with good low
level curvature that would be favorable for tornadoes. The main
limiting factor appears to be the instability and how well
organized the line sticks together as we head through the evening.

Previous Discussion:
A mild start to the day across the Tennessee Valley with 15z
temperatures in the upper 60s to lower 70s. Satellite imagery
shows an northward expanding cloud deck across central AL that
should overspread the local forecast area later today. So enjoy
the peeks of sunshine through the clouds this morning before it
goes away. Main concern during the daytime is gusty SE winds up to
20-25 mph in response to a tightening pressure gradient due to
the low pressure system over the Plains.

By this evening, a cold front to the south of the aformentioned
low pressure system will swing through AL bringing high chances
for showers and low chances for strong to severe thunderstorms.
Strong moisture advection ahead of the front should initiate a few
showers this evening (around 00z), primarily along and west of
I-65. The main line of storms associated with the front is
forecast to arrive into NW AL around midnight tonight and slowly
move across the forecast area through the early morning hours. The
main concern is locally heavy rainfall that could result in flash
flooding. PWs rise between 1.5-1.75 inches and combined with the
slow propagation speeds, rainfall amounts of 1-2 inches is most
likely with higher amounts up to 4 inches where deeper convection
develops. As a result, areas in NW AL have been placed in a Slight
Risk (level 2 of 4) for excessive rainfall leading to flash
flooding.

As for the severe threat, there is an overall low risk with the
greatest concern across portions of NW AL. The line of storms is
expected to weaken a bit as it moves in from N MS. While shear
profiles especially in the low levels would be favorable for
severe storms and perhaps a few tornadoes, instability is weak and
vertical profiles show tall skinny CAPE. Given the time of year,
we cannot fully rule out a few strong to severe storms, but the
overall risk appears quite low.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Wednesday through Thursday Night)
Issued at 917 AM CST Tue Nov 3 2026

The line of showers and storms will continue to meander its way
slowly eastward across our local forecast area on Wednesday. Rain
chances end from west to east with portions of NW AL clearing out
around lunchtime and portions of NE AL finally drying out by
Wednesday evening. A cooler and drier airmass move in behind the
cold front bringing a nice dry day on Thursday with afternoon
highs warming into the lower 70s. Another shortwave is forecast to
push through the area late Thursday bringing low chances for
light showers to the area. However, there is some uncertainty in
how much moisture will be present with this wave, but for now kept
the low chance PoPs in our latest forecast.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday through Monday)
Issued at 938 PM CST Mon Nov 2 2026

We will end the work week with the passage of an upper wave early
Friday morning, with some uncertainty as to how much moisture
advection will happen ahead of this system. The GFS is a bit more
aggressive with moisture and would result in some light rain
during the early hours on Friday, while the ECMWF is drier and
would likely only result in increasing clouds. For this reason we
will stick with blended guidance capping PoPs near 20%, and any
rainfall that does occur should begin clearing by late Friday
morning. Dry weather will follow as high pressure spreads
southward from the Midwest in the wake of a cold front. High temps
will drop to the upper 60s/lower 70s behind this front with
northwesterly winds bringing in cooler and drier air. We should
also see clouds thinning through the morning hours on Friday
resulting in pleasant fall conditions by Friday afternoon.

Overall the weekend looks nice as zonal flow persists aloft. High
temps will reach the low to mid 60s each day with overnight lows
in the 30s to lower 40s. In fact, we will likely see our first
frost of the season in some locations, especially those north of
the TN River and in the higher terrain where current forecast
temperatures drop to 32 degrees. This will be a trend to watch
over the coming days, but there are still fairly significant
differences regarding the upper and mid level patterns in long
term guidance. Models do agree that by early next week upper flow
will shift to the north as a stronger trough axis shifts east over
the area, reinforcing high pressure and keeping dry, near
seasonable conditions over the TN Valley.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 618 PM CST Tue Nov 3 2026

MVFR CIGS are already in place at both terminals at this time.
KMSL has reported some very light SHRA that have not amounted to
any accumulations so far. Expect SHRA to remain possible between
00Z and 004Z at KMSL and between 01Z and 04Z at KHSV (thus tempo
group for both). Around 4Z, expect light showers to become more
persistent at KMSL and at 05Z at KHSV. Ahead of an approaching
cold front, expect a low chance of some -TSRA cold occur between
6Z and 10Z at KMSL. Then expect predominant TSRA at KMSL from 10Z
through 16Z. During this period MVFR to IFR CIGS or VSBYS could
occur.

A warm front ahead of the front could produce a medium chance of
thunderstorms between 9Z and 13Z further east at KHSV. Thus,
included a tempo group for it during that period. Around
daybreak, winds may pick up to around 25 knots gusting to around
30 knots at both terminals. At KMSL, expect -RA to remain
possible after 16Z. Predominant SHRA were kept in the forecast
after 13Z at KHSV. There is some uncertainty whether afternoon
redevelopment of storms could occur at KHSV. For now left this out
of the forecast, but may need to add in later issuance.

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...None.
TN...None.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...GH
SHORT TERM....GH
LONG TERM....25
AVIATION...KTW