020
FXUS64 KHUN 232211
AFDHUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Huntsville AL
511 PM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1008 AM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026

 - There are low to medium chances of thunderstorms for much of
   next week. However, timing and impact confidence remains low at
   this time.

&&

.NEAR TERM...
(Tonight)
Issued at 153 PM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026

No changes from previous forecast for tonight. Under sunny skies,
temps have warmed up into the upper 80s at this hour with light
north/northwesterly winds. Will see an increase of mid to upper
level clouds this evening and tonight, otherwise lows will reach
the low to mid 60s.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Monday through Wednesday)
Issued at 1008 AM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026

We will start out the week with an upper level low centered in
Quebec, a ridge centered in the southern Rockies but amplified up
into the Northern Plains and another upper level low in
Saskatchewan. Sfc high pressure will continue to push
southeastward into the region and keep an MCS dropping out of the
Central Plains on Monday to our west. The TN Valley will have a
much needed break from the heat and humidity on Monday as daytime
highs reach the upper 80s and dewpoints only in the 50s-60s! On
Tuesday, a sfc low in the Southern Plains will help return
moisture to the region and lift a warm front northward through the
day. Could see a few showers/storms return to the far west
portion of the CWA on Tuesday otherwise it will be moreso Tuesday
night for everyone. Still stuck in this northwesterly flow
pattern, a disturbance will slide into the TN Valley on
Wednesday, increasing POPs from low chances (20-40%) during the
day to to medium chances (50-60%) by Wednesday night. Daytime
highs will be in the upper 80s to lower 90s on both Tuesday and
Wednesday.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday night through Saturday)
Issued at 641 PM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026

We will continue to be in a northwest flow regime aloft for most of
the long term period. However, by Saturday, this pattern begins to
break down as the upper trough to the north/northeast flattens and
the upper ridge over the Desert Southwest flattens as well and pushes
farther east into the ArkLaTex. A lingering surface boundary will
also persist over the Southeast into Thursday before what looks like
a reinforcing cold front swings through. By late week and into the
first part of next weekend high pressure builds over the Appalachians
and Ohio Valley.

Overall, highs in the upper 80s to lower 90s with lows in the mid
60s to lower 70s will be common through the period. In addition, the
above pattern will lead to daily chances of showers and storms from
Tuesday through Thursday at least. Expecting lower chances come
Friday/Saturday. The best chances look to be during the afternoon and
evening hours, during peak heating when storms can take advantage of
the greater thermodynamics in place. Ample instability in addition
to bulk shear between 20-30 knots, 0-3km lapse rates between 7-8 deg
C/km, along with DCAPE around or above 1000 J/kg, will warrant us
keeping an eye on the forecast for at least strong to severe
downburst potential Wednesday and Thursday. As has been the case
recently, the main hazards are likely to be damaging winds, frequent
lightning, and perhaps some hail (but freezing levels may be too
high). As for heavy rain and flooding concerns, this will need to be
monitored as well, since most PWATS are generally between 1.7-2.0
inches Tuesday through Thursday. These values are between the 75th
and 90th percentiles when compared to BMX Sounding Climatology, which
means that showers and storms will be efficient rainfall producers.
Stay weather aware especially if you work outside or have outdoor
activities and check back for forecast updates!

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 511 PM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026

VFR flight weather conditions are forecast.

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...None.
TN...None.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...JMS
SHORT TERM....JMS
LONG TERM....26
AVIATION...17