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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Huntsville, AL
Issued by NWS Huntsville, AL
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679 FXUS64 KHUN 250523 AFDHUN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Huntsville AL 1223 AM CDT Tue Jun 25 2024 ...New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM... .NEAR TERM... (Today) Issued at 1222 AM CDT Tue Jun 25 2024 At the surface, a weak front which pushed south through our area early Monday morning has reached into central AL. High pressure has moved into the OH valley, edging into the TN valley. Dew points have dipped into the 50s across much of middle and eastern TN, with 60s over north AL. With a clear sky and calm winds, radiational cooling has dropped temperatures into the upper 60s in eastern portions of north AL into southern middle TN, with 70s to around 80 in the HSV metro and Quad Cities. The surface ridge will shift a bit further south today, allowing for drier air to cover the area. Persistence looks like best forecast today after looking at Monday`s highs, so will go close to that, just shy of 100 at KMSL and KHSV. && .SHORT TERM... (Tonight through Thursday night) Issued at 1222 AM CDT Tue Jun 25 2024 Another relatively "cool" night is expected again tonight with lower to middle 60s east and upper 60s to around 70 west. More hot temperatures on Wednesday, although the higher dew points near 70 will reside in NW AL into middle TN where heat index values of 100-105 are expected, with lower 60s further east in northeast AL and eastern portions of southern middle TN where heat index values may stay in the 90s once again. A rather potent MCS will be dropping southeast through the corn belt and into the OH Valley Wednesday as a shortwave and cold front drive southeast as well. Whether the MCS reaches all the way into southern middle TN or north AL is debatable at this point, but peak heating and westerly advection of moisture/Theta-E will likely help to generate new convection in advance of the MCS and/or outflow boundary. Or, the outflow boundary itself may help activate convection as well. In either case, still looks like our best shot of showers and thunderstorms in a while. A few strong thunderstorms will be possible due to moderate CAPE and steep low level lapse rates. But thankfully, deep bulk shear values will be modest at best. Convective chances will linger through Wednesday night, but I suspect the loss of peak heating will signal a decrease at least in more widespread activity until the front moves through. Thursday will be a nice break from the heat and added humidity that arrives ahead of the front on Wednesday. Highs will be in the upper 80s to lower 90s. && .LONG TERM... (Friday through Monday) Issued at 1222 AM CDT Tue Jun 25 2024 From Friday into the weekend, southerly flow will redevelop in low levels, elevating dew points into the lower to perhaps middle 70s. With highs staying in the lower to middle 90s, heat index values may reach 105+ in some areas, mainly central and west both days. The good news is, pulse afternoon convection is expected to develop Saturday afternoon, and then another cold front undercuts the 5h ridge across the region and arrives sometime Sunday depending on the model solution. So, we may get breaks in the heat at times both days due to thunderstorms. However, the front will be weakening and will likely lift back north by late Monday. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1010 PM CDT Mon Jun 24 2024 VFR flight weather conditions are forecast during the period. && .HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AL...None. TN...None. && $$ NEAR TERM...17 SHORT TERM....17 LONG TERM....17 AVIATION...17