289
FXUS64 KHUN 021919
AFDHUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Huntsville AL
219 PM CDT Tue Sep 2 2025

...New NEAR TERM...

.NEAR TERM...
(Tonight)
Issued at 219 PM CDT Tue Sep 2 2025

Clusters of heavy showers continue to decrease in coverage and
intensity over northwest AL. Rain amounts of 3-6 inches in
eastern Colbert and Franklin Counties was estimated by radar.
There have been observations of 1-2.5 inches outside of this
bullseye of estimated rainfall. The rainfall and clouds have
reduced instability considerably in northwest and north central
AL, so expect minimal redevelopment at this time as a weak
shortwave continues to progress to the east-southeast. The
thunderstorms in northern middle TN and southern KY are not
expected to hold together all the way into our forecast area at
this time based on recent CAMS runs. Patchy to areas of fog are
forecast to develop overnight, especially in areas that received
rainfall earlier today. Fog trends will need to be monitored this
evening for the possibility of dense fog.


Previous Discussion...
Issued at 813 AM CDT Tue Sep 2 2025

A shortwave in northwest flow at 5h is aiding expansion of
multiple clusters of showers and thunderstorms this morning. This
trend will persist through the day, with the main hazard being
ponding of water and a low risk of isolated flash flooding (WPC
marginal risk). Clouds and precipitation will lend to keeping
temperatures in the upper 70s to lower 80s for most areas for
afternoon highs. A decrease in rain activity will occur after
sunset, but chances pick up again late tonight as yet another
upper level impulse arrives. Overnight lows in the lower 60s are
forecast.

&&

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Wednesday through Thursday night)
Issued at 813 AM CDT Tue Sep 2 2025

Wednesday will continue to present low chances of showers and
thunderstorms. With added sunshine as compared to Tuesday,
instability may become a bit greater, so a strong thunderstorm or
two cannot be ruled out. A stronger upper low will be digging into
the Great Lakes area by late Wednesday into Thursday, drawing a
stronger cold front and shortwave southeast through the eastern
Corn belt into the Ozarks, then east through the OH Valley into
the central and eastern TN Valley on Thursday. The tail end of
the cold front will bring a line of thunderstorms southeast into
eastern and middle TN into north AL Thursday afternoon. Weaker
forcing along this portion of the front may limit the southwest
extent of thunderstorms Thursday. Thus, PoPs will range 20-30% in
northwest AL and 40-60% in southern middle TN and far northeast
AL. The frontal boundary never passes through the local area, thus
temperatures will remain in the 60s Thursday night.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday through Monday)
Issued at 1044 PM CDT Mon Sep 1 2025

A little bad news for the fans of early fall weather, the long term
pattern looks a little warmer than previously expected as the work
week comes to a close and we head into the weekend. The upper trough
axis will pivot east of the area as an additional wave starts to dig
south over the Great Lakes toward the weekend. A strong cold front
will push south through the OH River Valley and approach the TN River
Valley late Friday into Saturday but is expected to stall near or
just to our north. Where exactly this front stalls will have a
fairly big impact on the temperatures as areas south of the front
will experience temps in the upper 80s to lower 90s where areas north
of the front will drop to the 70s and lower 80s. Friday looks to be
the warmest day with highs in the upper 80s to mid 90s. With the
drier air in place, heat indices are expected to stay pretty close to
air temperatures so we are not expecting any heat related headlines
currently. The front is forecast to move little over the weekend
and will feature temps in the 80s with a low chance for rain and
thunderstorms on Saturday. Overnight lows will fall into the 50s and
lower 60s Saturday and Sunday nights before a pattern shift begins to
bring in warmer conditions on Monday. Stay tuned for forecast updates
throughout the week!

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1140 AM CDT Tue Sep 2 2025

A large cluster of SHRA and embedded TS will gradually diminish in
areal coverage and intensity this afternoon. VFR conditions will
prevail outside the rain area until late tonight around 10Z when
patchy to areas of BR/FG will develop. Visibility of 3-5SM (MVFR)
will be common with KMSL and KHSV dropping to 2SM or less (IFR) at
times from 10-14Z.

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...None.
TN...None.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...17
SHORT TERM....17
LONG TERM....25
AVIATION...17