575
FXUS64 KHUN 062200
AFDHUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Huntsville AL
400 PM CST Thu Mar 6 2025

...New AVIATION...

.NEAR TERM...
(Rest of Today and Tonight)
Issued at 256 PM CST Thu Mar 6 2025

There have been no changes to forecast reasoning for the near
term this afternoon, with thoughts outlined in the previous
discussion remaining valid at this time.

Previous Discussion:

NW flow aloft in the 90-100 knot range will weaken considerably
over the course of the day as an amplified mid-level shortwave
trough ejects northeastward into the western North Atlantic, with
winds aloft predicted to back to the west overnight as an upstream
trough digs across the southwestern CONUS. In the low-levels, a
surface high will drift east-southeastward along the central Gulf
Coast, with light-moderate NW winds expected to become light and
variable this afternoon. Although a gradual increase in the
coverage of high-level cirroform clouds (embedded within the flow
aloft) is expected throughout the day, abundant sunshine will
allow highs to range from the m-u 40s in elevated terrain to the
l-m 50s in the valley.

Overnight, surface high pressure will continue to build
southeastward across the eastern Gulf, eventually becoming
centered across the FL Peninsula by 12Z Friday. To our west, a
weakening area of low pressure will track from eastern CO into
central KS in response to the motion of the southwestern CONUS
mid-level trough. Low-level SE flow across the local area will
gradually strengthen in response to this, and with the coverage of
mid/high-level clouds expected to become broken-overcast, lows
will be a bit warmer (l-m 30s).

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Friday through Saturday night)
Issued at 1031 AM CST Thu Mar 6 2025

Latest model guidance still suggests that the northern and more
progressive portion of the southwestern CONUS mid-level trough
(noted above) will shear apart as it shifts eastward into the OH
Valley by 12Z Saturday. In response to this, the related surface
cyclone will continue to weaken as it advances eastward into the
Mid-MS Valley by 0Z Saturday, and should open into a trough as it
progresses across KY/VA Friday night. Strengthening gradient-
induced SSW winds and mostly sunny skies will promote dry
conditions and highs in the l-m 60s on Friday. However, showers
and perhaps a few thunderstorms are expected to develop Friday
evening along the low`s trailing cold front extending from the
Lower OH Valley south-southwestward into northern MS. Although
some of this convective precipitation may survive early Saturday
morning as the cold front enters our CWFA and encounters an
increasingly moist boundary layer (featuring dewpoints recovering
into the u40s-l50s and CAPE in the 100-300 J/kg range), the
overall confluent nature of mid/high-level flow should limit
spatial coverage of showers/thunderstorms and we will only
advertise POPs in the 20-30% range.

Present indications are that the cold front will cross our CWFA
between 9-15Z Saturday, with light-moderate NNE flow advecting a
slightly cooler/drier mixture of Canadian and North Pacific air
into the region Saturday afternoon. However, to our southwest, a
separate area of low pressure is predicted to develop within a
broader surface trough along the TX Gulf Coast. This will occur as
the southern portion of the broader western CONUS trough evolves
into an upper low over the southern Rockies. Showers and elevated
thunderstorms are predicted to expand northeastward from the
southern Plains into the Lower-MS Valley/central Gulf Coast
throughout the day, with light rain possible in our region by
mid/late afternoon. Overall coverage of rain and embedded
thunderstorms will increase on Saturday night as an area of low
pressure emerges from the surface trough and tracks northeastward
along the central Gulf Coast. Due to an increasing coverage of
overcast mid-level clouds Saturday, highs will remain in the l-m
60s. Overnight lows on Sunday morning will be in the u30s-l40s.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday through Wednesday)
Issued at 928 PM CST Wed Mar 5 2025

By Sunday morning, surface low pressure will be weakening as its
continues its NE trek into the Atlantic coast. The exit of the low
will take with it our rain chance, with dry conditions in place
by Sunday evening. Skies will begin to clear as high pressure to
our SW begins to inch its way into the area. The remainder of the
long term will bring about a period of rather benign weather. High
pressure will translate east over the Gulf coast through the
start of the work week. This will place us in a favorable return
flow pattern through the end of the week. By Tuesday, winds will
be light but consistently out of the south allowing for continuous
WAA. A warming trend will develop amounting to temps rising from
the high 50s on Sunday to the low 70s by Wednesday.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 400 PM CST Thu Mar 6 2025

VFR flight weather conditions are forecast. As high pressure
slides east, light winds will become southerly on Friday with
gusts of 20-25kt.

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...None.
TN...None.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...70
SHORT TERM....70
LONG TERM....RAD
AVIATION...17