936
FXUS64 KHUN 260159
AFDHUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Huntsville AL
859 PM CDT Fri Apr 25 2025

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.NEAR TERM...
(Tonight)
Issued at 710 PM CDT Fri Apr 25 2025

Rain has exited all but our far southeast counties. Isolated
showers and thunderstorms have redeveloped along and ahead of a
pre-frontal trough in west TN and along a cold front in southeast
MO into northern AR where surface heating pushed SBCAPE back into
the 1500-2000 j/kg range. These showers and thunderstorms will
struggle to move too far southeast tonight due to stabilized air
over north AL and middle TN and with loss of daytime heating.
However, we will keep a low PoP in before 06Z in our northwest
counties. Of more concern are dense fog and low cloud development
overnight. We have added fog to the forecast grids and will
monitor trends this evening.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Saturday through Sunday night)
Issued at 858 PM CDT Fri Apr 25 2025

After morning clouds and fog lift, sunshine should boost temperatures
into the upper 70s to lower 80s. The cold front now in southeast MO
will drop into middle TN and northwest AL Saturday morning, and
through the rest of north AL by late afternoon. An isolated shower or
thunderstorm cannot be ruled out, but most areas will remain dry
based on CAMs data. Cooler and drier air will filter in Saturday
night with dew points and temperatures dropping back into the 50s.
West-northwest flow always plays havoc with forecasts, and this will
be no different. For now, Sunday looks dry overall, but a decaying
MCS that forms over the Plains and moves into the Ozarks and Ouachita
mountains will have to be watched. At this point, decaying showers
may arrive during the late afternoon in our western counties. Most
areas will receive mid and high clouds with temperatures in the upper
70s to around 80. There is some potential for rejuvenation of showers
and thunderstorms Sunday night, mainly to our southeast in
Georgia.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday through Friday)
Issued at 858 PM CDT Fri Apr 25 2025

With the frontal boundary still in the area, any
overrunning/isentropic ascent may tend to redevelop rainfall
northeast of the boundary. This may happen on Monday and again on
Tuesday in our eastern counties as the 5h ridge breaks down just a
bit. PoPs will remain low these days. However, PoPs will be low to
perhaps medium on Wednesday into Wednesday night as yet another
shortwave zips ahead of the a stronger Plains trough. However, the
surface warm front may lift north keeping the vast majority of the
activity to our north. But by Thursday into Thursday night, the
main trough and associated cold front arrive, with medium if not
high shower and thunderstorm chances. Temperatures warm into the
middle 80s Thursday afternoon and bulk shear look to be more
sufficient to support stronger storms. Its still several days out
so we will monitor run to run trends in coming days. Cooler and
drier air will follow the frontal passage on Friday with highs in
the upper 70s to around 80.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 506 PM CDT Fri Apr 25 2025

New development of SHRA or TSRA will be isolated this evening, so
have left out of the KMSL and KHSV TAFs for now and will monitor
for possible amendments. The main concern late tonight into early
Saturday morning will be for low clouds and possible dense fog
development. Expect visibility to drop below 1SM and ceilings
at or below 005agl (IFR/LIFR) by ~05Z with visibility to ~1/2SM
and VV002 possible from 10-14Z. Improvement to MVFR ceilings and
eventually VFR will take place from 15-18Z as northerly flow
develops.

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...None.
TN...None.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...17
SHORT TERM....17
LONG TERM....17
AVIATION...17