749
FXUS64 KHUN 162306
AFDHUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Huntsville AL
606 PM CDT Wed Jul 16 2025

...New AVIATION...

.NEAR TERM...
(Tonight)
Issued at 226 PM CDT Wed Jul 16 2025

So far today thunderstorms and most of the rain has remained to
our north primarily along the axis of higher terrain on eastern TN
and KY. Will maintain a low chance (20-30%) for showers/storms
the rest of the afternoon and less than 20% PoPs tonight. The main
impact continues to be the heat as current heat index values range
from 100-105 degrees and could rise a few degrees higher before
the day is over. Similar conditions are forecast for tomorrow, and
the Heat Advisory has been expanded to include Lincoln and Moore
counties in TN, where heat indices could reach as high as 107
degrees. Otherwise, no significant changes were needed and the
previous forecast remains on track.

Previous discussion:
A hot and humid day is underway with temperatures warming into
the middle to upper 80s at this hour, with dew points in the
middle 70s. Some mixing may lower the dew points a bit this
afternoon, but heat index values still look to reach ~105F in the
HSV and Shoals metro areas where the hottest temperatures are
near 95F. Thunderstorm chances remain low (< 20%), with the
greatest chance in our eastern counties aided by terrain and a
slight increase in convergence as an inverted trough associated
the tropical wave in the northern Gulf swings through GA into
eastern AL. With low temperatures only in the middle 70s, and
another day of heat index values of 105+ in our western 2/3 of the
area, will extend the existing Heat Advisory through early
Thursday evening. Thunderstorm chances go up to 20-30% Thursday
afternoon, but coverage should be limited to go ahead and extend
the advisory.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Thursday night through Saturday)
Issued at 958 AM CDT Wed Jul 16 2025

As the tropical wave moves west into the central Gulf Coast
region Thursday night into Friday, deep southerly flow will be
induced increasing moisture further into the TN valley. The
inverted trough will have lifted north and west of our forecast
area, but CAMs and short range models all indicate an increasing
chance of showers and thunderstorms (mainly during the daytime and
early evening hours) into the low to medium range. Chances will
be a bit higher north of our area due to the proximity to the
convergence zone/surface boundary. Uncertainty with regard to the
track of the remnants of the tropical system remain into the
weekend. However, the westerlies in the Plains transport a
shortwaves and/or MCV east-southeast into the lower OH and TN
valleys Saturday, keeping at least medium chances of additional
showers and thunderstorms in the forecast. Areas of heavy rain
will be the main aspect of these storms given weak shear and a
very moist profile.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 914 PM CDT Tue Jul 15 2025

Long range models show mid level ridging retrograding across the
Gulf coast through the start of next week. This unfortunately
will amount to more of the same for the long term forecast. High
pressure will keep elevated dew points and temperatures anchored
to the TN Valley. This will amount to apparent temps near and just
over 100 nearly everyday of the long term forecast. Likewise,
daily afternoon rain chances look to remain in the forecast.
Around and along the northern edge of the ridge, NW flow may
support MCS development in the mid Mississippi and Ohio Valley as
we head into next week in. We will be keeping an eye on this trend
should dying MCS try to drop into our forecast area.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 606 PM CDT Wed Jul 16 2025

Low to medium chances (10-30%) of showers/storms continues
through the early evening hours. In fact, a storm developed right
over the MSL TAF site just before 23Z this evening. Anticipating
this to move to the east/southeast over the next hour, but have
included VCTS at MSL and at least VCSH at HSV through 2Z. Any
activity will then diminish with no rain forecast overnight. Fog
is not anticipated as well. Low chances (10-20%) of showers/storms
then returns Thursday afternoon; however, left this out of the
TAFs for now due to low confidence in whether the TAF sites would
be affected. Outside of any storms, winds are expected to decrease
to be light to calm tonight. By mid to late morning on Thursday,
winds will then become southerly at around 5-10 knots.

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT Thursday for ALZ001>007-016.

TN...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT Thursday for TNZ076-096.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...25
SHORT TERM....17
LONG TERM....RAD
AVIATION...26