


Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Huntsville, AL
Issued by NWS Huntsville, AL
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861 FXUS64 KHUN 091053 AFDHUN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Huntsville AL 553 AM CDT Thu Oct 9 2025 ...New AVIATION... .NEAR TERM... (Today) Issued at 552 AM CDT Thu Oct 9 2025 There have been no changes from the previous discussion as the forecast remains on track. Rain chances remain very low as mostly dry conditions persist through Thursday. Highs continue to be forecast to reach the upper 60s to mid 70s with lows dropping into the 50s tonight. High temperatures are slightly below normal for this time of year, during which normal highs typically range from the mid to upper 70s. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION: In the mid/upper-levels, west-northwest flow of 15-25 knots will persist across the TN Valley overnight. A small but amplifying shortwave trough embedded within this flow (currently across southeastern MO) will approach the local area from the northwest during the early morning hours (with a notable increase in synoptic scale lift aloft), but should have little to no impact on sensible weather conditions given the dry nature of the mid/upper-tropospheric column. At the surface, a strengthening high (initially over the Great Lakes) will shift eastward into southern Ontario, resulting in cold air damming to the east of the southern Appalachians. Present indications are that a wind shift axis (marking a return to ENE flow) will begin to enter the eastern portion of the CWFA between 8-10Z, with a broken layer of stratocumulus clouds expected to overspread the region in its wake. A few light showers or sprinkles of rain may also occur, especially across our southeastern zones (where low-level ascent will be enhanced by favorably oriented topographical features). Overnight lows will range from the u40s-l50s in southern TN to the m50s in the southeast, and with dewpoint depressions increasing with time any brief development of patchy fog should be confined to wind-sheltered valley locations. Over the course of the day, the surface wind shift axis will continue to progress westward, with a broken stratocumulus layer in its wake resulting in mostly cloudy skies that will hold afternoon temperatures in the u60s-l70s (east) and m70s (west). Although a few sprinkles of rain could occur at any point throughout the day (especially in the southeast), chances for wetting rainfall remain low (less than 10%), with the best opportunity for showers and a few thunderstorms displaced across southern portions of the Gulf Coast states, where both instability and convergence will be greater. && .SHORT TERM... (Thursday night through Saturday night) Issued at 552 AM CDT Thu Oct 9 2025 Short range model data continues to suggest that a mid-level shortwave trough (the feature that will cross our region during the morning hours on Thursday) will slowly intensify as it travels cyclonically from west-central GA into coastal portions of NC/SC by the end of the period. As this occurs, north-northeast flow aloft across the TN Valley will back to north-northwest and increase into the 25-35 knot range as the height gradient contracts between the low to our east and a subtropical high across the Rio Grande Valley. Although periods of high clouds can be expected at times, the advection of very dry air aloft will continue, with no chance for precipitation. At the surface, light ESE flow Thursday night will become light/variable-calm for the remainder of the period, as we will be situated within a weak pressure gradient between a surface ridge shifting eastward into the northwestern Atlantic, a decaying low dropping south-southeastward from the western Great Lakes into the Upper OH Valley and a developing area of low pressure lifting north-northeastward off the southeastern Atlantic Coast. With lingering clouds expected to inhibit radiational cooling tomorrow night, we will advertise lows in the l-m 50s once again. However, with favorable conditions for radiational cooling expected to be in place on Friday/Saturday nights, temps in the u40s-l50s will be common. Afternoon highs will continue to range from the u60s-l70s (east) to m-u 70s (west). && .LONG TERM... (Sunday through Wednesday) Issued at 552 AM CDT Thu Oct 9 2025 In the extended portion of the forecast period, global models still indicate that a deepening shortwave disturbance (located along the Mid-Atlantic Coast) will become absorbed in the circulation around a more compact trough digging southeastward from the Great Lakes early in the period. This will likely result in the formation of a large mid/upper-level low across the western North Atlantic early next week, with moderately strong NNW flow aloft predicted to continue across our region as a strengthening subtropical high expands northeastward into the Gulf Coast. Thus, we expect dry conditions to prevail but with a modest warming trend as an increasing influence from the ridge to our southwest is expected to begin on Sunday and continue through Wednesday. Highs will quickly warm back into the l-m 80s by Monday, with lows also rising into the m-u 50s by Monday night. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 553 AM CDT Thu Oct 9 2025 VFR conditions are forecast through the TAF period at both KMSL and KHSV. A wind shift from northerly to easterly is forecast to occur late this morning at both sites. && .HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AL...None. TN...None. && $$ NEAR TERM...HC SHORT TERM....70 LONG TERM....70 AVIATION...HC