667
FXUS64 KHUN 221051
AFDHUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Huntsville AL
551 AM CDT Sat Jun 22 2024

...New AVIATION...

.NEAR TERM...
(Today)
Issued at 139 AM CDT Sat Jun 22 2024

Satellite imagery this morning shows an area of high clouds
drifting southward from TN into N. AL. A large upper level ridge
remains across much of the Southeast with high pressure sitting
underneath this ridge. This will result in another hot and dry day
for the Tennessee Valley. Forecast highs this afternoon will once
again rise into the low to mid 90s. While dewpoints are currently
in the upper 60s to lower 70s, these should mix out this
afternoon back down into the mid 60s. As a result, heat index
values will only top out in the upper 90s. Those with outdoor
plans this afternoon should drink plenty of water and take
frequent breaks in the shade.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Tuesday)
Issued at 139 AM CDT Sat Jun 22 2024

Another warm and muggy night is expected across the Tennessee
Valley. Morning lows will only dip down into the upper 60s to
lower 70s. By the latter half of this weekend, the upper level
ridge will begin to shift to the west as an upper level trough
digs in across the Northeast. This will push a weak "cold" front
southeastward towards our local forecast area Sunday evening into
early Monday morning. Prior to this front, temperatures once again
rise into the mid 90s with heat indices in the upper 90s. Showers
and storm chances increase during the late evening Sunday,
bringing low to medium (25-40%) chances of thunderstorms. Given
the lack of shear in the forecast soundings, do not expect any
severe storms.

Unfortunately, the aformentioned cold front will not provide much
relief from the heat to start the upcoming work week. In fact,
even hotter conditions are forecast for the first half of the
week. The mid to upper level ridge builds back in across the
Mississippi Valley. Southwesterly flow will aid in increasing
afternoon temperatures Monday and Tuesday into the mid to upper
90s. Combined with dewpoints in the upper 60s to lower 70s,
maximum heat index values may exceed 105F. If this forecast holds
true, a Heat Advisory will likely be needed. The one caveat to
this, is the potential for diurnally driven thunderstorms,
especially on Tuesday. Not much relief from the heat is expected
overnight with lows only dropping into the low to mid 70s.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through Friday)
Issued at 139 AM CDT Sat Jun 22 2024

The heat finally breaks on Wednesday as another front pushes
through the local forecast area. This front will bring much needed
area wide showers and storms Wednesday into Thursday morning.
Once again shear is quite weak, so not anticipating any severe
storms. Given the cloud cover and precipitation, afternoon
temperatures peak in the upper 80s to low 90s both Wednesday and
Thursday. The upper level ridge begins to build back eastward and
once again hot and humid conditions return to finish off the work
week with afternoon highs returning to the low to mid 90s on
Friday.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 551 AM CDT Sat Jun 22 2024

Light winds and mostly clear skies will result in prevailing VFR
conditions.

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...None.
TN...None.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...GH
SHORT TERM....GH
LONG TERM....GH
AVIATION...GH