150
FXUS64 KHUN 110548
AFDHUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Huntsville AL
1248 AM CDT Sat Oct 11 2025

...New AVIATION...

.NEAR TERM...
(This Evening through Saturday)
Issued at 1050 PM CDT Fri Oct 10 2025

In the mid/upper-levels, light-moderate (10-20 knot) NNW flow
will remain in place across the TN Valley overnight, as our region
will remain along the eastern flank of an amplified subtropical
ridge centered across northern Mexico. Embedded within this flow,
a distinct vorticity maxima will dig south- southeastward across
the Mid-MS Valley, with related lift aloft responsible for an
overcast layer of altostratus clouds and a few light showers
(currently extending from IL southwestward into northern AR).
Although this regime may enter the western portion of the forecast
area during the early morning hours on Saturday, clouds should be
more scattered with eastern extent but may have a limited impact
on otherwise favorable conditions for radiational cooling.
Nevertheless, we will indicate overnight lows ranging from the
u40s-l50s in outlying areas to the m50s near large bodies of
water. With a relaxed pressure gradient in the wake of a surface
ridge shifting eastward over the northwestern Atlantic, patchy fog
will be possible in low-lying areas and other normally fog-prone
valley locations.

Over the course of the day tomorrow, winds aloft across our
region will veer to NNE in response to the orientation of a
deepening mid-level trough across southern GA/north FL. A slight
increase in north-northeast flow in the low-levels is expected as
well, as the related surface low begins to advance northward off
the southeastern Atlantic Coast. This will ensure a continuation
of dry weather across the region, with only a few fair weather
cumulus clouds possible during the afternoon. Afternoon temps will
be similar to readings from today, with l70s in elevated terrain
and m-u 70s in the valley.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Saturday night through Monday night)
Issued at 1050 PM CDT Fri Oct 10 2025

Short range model consensus suggests that a mid-level trough
(initially positioned along the southeastern Atlantic Coast) will
progress slowly northeastward on Saturday night/Sunday, before
quickly becoming absorbed in the circulation around a more compact
trough tracking southeastward over the northern Mid- Atlantic
states by the end of the period. Well to our southwest, the center
of a strengthening subtropical high is predicted to build
northeastward across the Rio Grande Valley and into central TX,
with an increasing influence from this feature across our region
expected beginning on Sunday. In the low-levels, light north-
northeast flow will persist along the southern flank of a surface
high centered across southern Quebec and adjacent portions of New
England, and this (in conjunction with NNW flow aloft around the
expanding subtropical high) will result in dry conditions.
Afternoon highs will gradually rise back into the u70s-l80s on
Sunday/Monday, with overnight lows in the m40s-l50s increasing
into the l-m 50s by Tuesday morning.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through Friday)
Issued at 1050 PM CDT Fri Oct 10 2025

For the majority of the upcoming extended forecast period,
synoptic scale conditions across the TN Valley will remain
dominated by a 500-mb subtropical ridge that will weaken with time
as it expands southeastward from the southern Plains (Tuesday)
into the southeastern Gulf/northwestern Caribbean Sea (Friday),
and a surface high (initially across the U.S.-Canadian border)
that will also weaken as it spreads southeastward into the Mid-
Atlantic states by late next week. Together, these features will
maintain dry conditions across the local forecast area, although a
notable increase in high-level cloudiness is anticipated by
Thursday night/Friday due to the onset of southwesterly flow
aloft. Highs will remain in the u70s-m80s, with lows in the l-m
50s.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1248 AM CDT Sat Oct 11 2025

There have been no changes to previous aviation forecast
reasoning, as it still appears as if clear skies and calm winds
will be favorable for development of patchy BR/FG across portions
of the TN Valley early this morning. Due to contracting dewpoint
depressions noted at both terminals, we have included a TEMPO
groups for MVFR vsby reductions btwn 9-13Z. Otherwise, a slight
increase in NNE flow is expected to occur after sunrise as a
developing area of low pressure tracks north-northeastward off the
southeastern Atlantic Coast, with only a few high-based Cu
possible during the daylight hours. Skies will clear by 22Z, with
a lgt NNE-calm wind expected Sat evening.

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...None.
TN...None.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...70/DD
SHORT TERM...70/DD
LONG TERM...70/DD
AVIATION...70/DD