225
FXUS63 KICT 172331
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
531 PM CST Mon Nov 17 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Above normal temperatures continue through Thursday followed
  by near normal temperatures.

- Shower and storm chances returning Wednesday through Friday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 305 PM CST Mon Nov 17 2025

Current water vapor imagery shows a shortwave trough over the
Central Rockies with an additional upper-level trough coming onshore
to northern California. At the surface, a low sits over northwestern
Kansas with a warm front extending down through central Kansas into
central Oklahoma.

Tonight, the aforementioned surface low will move across Kansas,
shifting into Missouri by Tuesday morning. Before winds shift to
northwesterly, southerly winds in south-central and southeast Kansas
will advect moisture into the area, allowing dewpoints to rise into
the upper 50s especially in southeast Kansas. This will likely lead
to patchy fog in the overnight hours into Tuesday morning in
southeast Kansas with some areas possible in south-central Kansas.
Northwesterly winds will start to increase to 10-20 mph Tuesday
morning, slowly decreasing into Tuesday afternoon. High temperatures
will be slightly cooler on Tuesday ranging from the lower 60s in
central KS to the lower 70s in southeast KS.

The next upper-level trough is progged to move into the Desert
Southwest on Wednesday night. Chances for rainfall will start to
increase on Wednesday night as WAA/moisture advection increases.
Dewpoints are likely to rise into the lower 50s in south-central and
the upper 50s in southeast KS. Instability will be generally between
500-1000 J/kg in southern KS making some storms possible Wednesday
night; however, stronger instability is expected to stay south of
the area. The best chances for rainfall Wednesday night are in
southeast KS where better moisture is expected with PWATS between 1-
1.25". Widespread precipitation chances will increase Thursday into
Friday across much of the forecast area as synoptic lift
increases from the approaching trough moving out of the Desert
Southwest. With multiple perturbations in the upper-level flow,
a few rounds of precipitation will be possible in this time
period. Outside of precipitation, above normal temperatures are
expected Wednesday and Thursday with highs in the 60s before
near normal temperatures return late this week with highs in the
50s on Friday.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 530 PM CST Mon Nov 17 2025

A mixture of VFR and MVFR conditions are expected throughout the
period, with highest confidence in MVFR cigs in southeast KS.

Models continue to hold modest confidence in some patchy fog around
ICT and CNU after ~05Z, with impacts potentially lingering at CNU
toward sunrise on Tuesday. Otherwise, MVFR ceilings appear likely at
CNU but could extend west into portions of central and south central
KS. Decided to hold SCT at these sites for now, so later cycles may
need to adjust as needed.

Winds will become light and variable ahead of a cold front passing
through the area tonight. Behind this boundary, northwesterly winds
are forecast with speeds around 12+ kts at all sites beginning
Tuesday morning.

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...GC
AVIATION...JWK