678
FXUS63 KICT 062330
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
630 PM CDT Sun Sep 6 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Hot through Tuesday, with high temperatures areawide
  near/above 100 degrees.

- A shift in the pattern arrives Tuesday night with rain chances
  forecast through the end of the week.

- Strong cold front remains on track to arrive at some point
  late next weekend, though details this far out remain a bit
  unclear.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 112 PM CDT Sun Sep 6 2026

Water vapor imagery and RAP analysis currently highlight a
strong mid/upper ridge centered over the central CONUS while
upper impulses reside over both the Pacific Northwest and
northeast CONUS. Showers and a few rumbles of thunder were
observed across portions of Kansas earlier this morning along a
weak 850-700 mb baroclinic zone. A weak outflow boundary
currently spans along a rough line from Marion to Pratt.
Isolated to scattered activity has been observed early this
afternoon across portions of the Flint Hills amid a weakly
capped airmass with MLCAPE values around 1000 J/kg. This is
expected to continue into the early evening primarily along and
east of the Flint Hills, though a stray shower or storm near
I-135 can`t be ruled out considering convergence along the
aforementioned outflow boundary. As the discussion earlier this
morning highlighted, the main concern with the strongest
activity continues to be strong downburst winds with progged
DCAPE values around 1200 J/kg. Deep-layer shear around 25 kts
should largely preclude broader storm organization, though a
handful of strong to marginally severe storms are possible prior
to sunset. A similar setup may remain in place Monday
afternoon, as point soundings from short-term guidance highlight
weak capping and DCAPE values around 1000 J/kg. Once again, the
best chances for storms appear to reside primarily along and
east of the Flint Hills at this time.

With ridging overhead, temperatures through Tuesday will remain hot
for this time of year with afternoon highs forecast near/above 100
degrees across the forecast area. A shift in the hot pattern looks
to arrive late Tuesday night into Wednesday morning as a midlevel
wave tracks east across the Northern Plains. This will work to both
flatten the mid/upper ridge and push a cold front through the
Plains. Mid/long range guidance continues to indicate cooler
temperatures and increasing rain chances as this boundary pushes
south on Wednesday, and most of the area could see highs near 90
degrees by Thursday.

A surface trough setting up over the forecast area will allow for
strengthening southerly winds to close out the week. These will
promote a slight warming trend for Friday and Saturday with
forecast highs in the mid 90s. From here, long range guidance
highlights a potent mid/upper shortwave ejecting into the
Northern Plains late Saturday night into early Sunday. This will
displace another cold front southward at some point Sunday
which will bring cooler temperatures and may bring widespread
rainfall as well. Details remain a bit unclear this far out
considering discrepancies between global models such as the GFS
and Euro, with the former preferring a quicker arrival of the
front which would promote highs in the upper 80s to close out
the weekend. All told, details are likely to change as
additional information becomes available, so stay tuned as we
continue to refine the details.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 621 PM CDT Sun Sep 6 2026

VFR conditions are generally expected to prevail over the next
24 hours. Isolated to scattered showers and storms have come to
an end across southeast Kansas this evening. Few to scattered
VFR cigs will continue to float around the region tonight and
will contribute little to no concerns for aviation interests.

Surface winds remain fairly light out of the east to southeast
this evening, and this should continue through Monday morning.
By Monday afternoon, southeast winds will increase across the
region to around 10 to 15 knots. Portions of central Kansas
could see gusts up to 25 knots at times, mainly impacting KRSL,
KGBD, and surrounding sites.

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT Tuesday for KSZ032-033-047>053-
067>072-082-083-091>096-098>100.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...JWK
AVIATION...JC