319
FXUS63 KICT 160808
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
308 AM CDT Mon Jun 16 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Storms possible tonight into Tuesday morning

- Storms likely Tuesday afternoon into Tuesday night

- Dry and warm Thursday-Sunday with rain chances returning early
  next week

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 257 AM CDT Mon Jun 16 2025

As of 3 AM Monday morning, a midlevel ridge axis was retreating into
the southwest US, allowing zonal flow to return to the central
Plains. A few showers and storms were ongoing across southern NE but
recent radar trends suggest the convection was dissipating.
This is likely due to a lack of WAA across KS and eastern NE
with VAD wind profiles revealing backing winds from 925 to 700
mb.

Transitioning into this afternoon and tonight, cyclonic midlevel
flow will overspread the high Plains through the day, allowing for
the deepening a surface trough axis from southeast CO into eastern
NE. Upslope flow on the northern periphery of the surface low in
southeast CO should allow for storm development this afternoon from
eastern CO into eastern WY/western NE. This activity is likely to
grow upscale and propagate on the nose of the LLJ. The latest suite
of model guidance has shifted the core of the LLJ slightly further
south, increasing confidence for storms across portions of
central/eastern KS. Overall effective shear values remain weak (less
than 25 kt). Moderate instability (2500-3500 J/kg) combined
with DCAPE near 1500 J/kg will support a damaging wind threat.

The best potential for widespread thunderstorm activity arrives
Tuesday afternoon into Tuesday night. The spatial and severity
extent hinges on the duration/progression of tonight`s MCS. The
aforementioned surface trough axis will sink towards central and
northeast KS Tuesday afternoon. Strong surface heating is expected
to recover the boundary layer behind tonight`s MCS with buoyancy
values along/ahead of the trough axis exceeding 3000 J/kg. The
arrival of stronger midlevel winds will create a more-favorable wind
profile with effective shear values of 35-40 kt. The combination
would support supercell structures, at least initially, with large
hail, damaging winds, a tornado or 2, and heavy rain all possible.
As the evening progresses, upscale growth into an MCS is expected
with an eastern propagation. The biggest concern may transition to
training convection and flooding with the potential for backbuilding
convection on the trailing outflow boundary as a 40-50 kt LLJ
develops. The latest HREF suggests the potential for a second MCS
passage late Tuesday night into Wednesday morning with convection
developing across eastern CO/western NE and moving southeast
overnight. Lingering storms are possible across southeast KS
Wednesday morning into Wednesday afternoon. Longwave, midlevel
ridging will build across the area for the second half of the
week, setting the stage for drier and warmer conditions.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1039 PM CDT Sun Jun 15 2025

Main aviation concern will remain some fog and low cloud
potential tonight.

Moist southeast flow will remain across the area tonight into
Mon morning. Feel that increasing high clouds may limit fog
potential late tonight. However, still feel some low cloud
potential will remain for southeast KS into the Flint Hills. For
now will only mention some MVFR levels at KCNU after 10z,
however, wouldn`t be shocked if some low cigs make it as far
west of KICT early Mon morning. Storms will likely develop over
southwest Nebraska Mon evening and track southeast through the
overnight hours. They are not expected to affect the area before
06z Tue.

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...BRF
AVIATION...RBL