915
FXUS63 KICT 301934
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
234 PM CDT Thu Jul 30 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Chances for showers and storms return late tonight. Strong to
  marginally severe storms producing 50 to 60 mph wind gusts are
  possible.

- Cooler and quiet this weekend with highs mostly in the 80s on
  Saturday.

- Warming trend expected next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 234 PM CDT Thu Jul 30 2026

Water vapor imagery and RAP analysis this afternoon depict upper
ridging over the Central Plains as the mid-level ridge begins to
break down. The remnants of a few showers and weak thunderstorms
from earlier today continue to track into eastern Kansas, and most
of the forecast area is expected to remain dry through the remainder
of the day.

The latest short-term guidance continues to highlight a deepening
shortwave tracking over the Northern/Central Plains later today into
Friday morning. Showers and storms developing ahead of the
associated cold front will move through a majority of the region
later tonight into Friday morning amid an anomalously-moist airmass
(PWs well above 2 inches). Per the prior discussion, strong to
severe wind gusts are possible considering the abnormal moisture in
place and DCAPE values in excess of 1000 J/kg, though these should
remain isolated owing to sufficient convective inhibition at the
surface. Activity will likely remain organized into the morning
owing to support from the LLJ, but better organization to this point
may be further to our north and east where the main nose of the jet
will reside. Rain chances should come to an end by mid morning as
forcing shifts to the south and east. In the wake of the cold front,
locations in central Kansas will see seasonable highs in the low
90s, while portions of southern and especially southeast Kansas may
see highs in the middle to upper 90s depending on how quickly the
front and associated "cooler" air arrive.

Mid/upper ridging will continue across the Desert Southwest
alongside broad troughing across the eastern CONUS as we head into
the weekend. This pattern will look to keep the forecast area
slightly cooler this weekend with northerly flow aloft and at the
surface throughout the region. As such, highs mostly in the 80s are
forecast on Saturday along with lows in the low to middle 60s
heading into Sunday. This cooldown will be short-lived, however, as
heights and thicknesses begin to increase with the eastward shift of
the mid/upper ridge. As a result, a warming trend is expected
to take place through the work week with widespread highs in the
middle to upper 90s by Tuesday/Wednesday.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1233 PM CDT Thu Jul 30 2026

Forecast remains on track. Breezy southerly/southeasterly winds
this afternoon and evening ahead of the frontal boundary. The
front will sweep across the area tonight into tomorrow morning.
Convection will fire along the leading edge, leading to a
broken line of rain and storms. Some of the activity could
produce strong wind gusts, especially for our central Kansas
locations. Behind the front, winds will turn northwesterly,
generally between 10-15Z, gusting between 20-25 knots towards
the end of the forecast time frame.

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Heat Advisory until 9 PM CDT this evening for KSZ082-091-092.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...JWK
AVIATION...AMD