014
FXUS63 KICT 191838
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
1238 PM CST Wed Nov 19 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Patchy dense fog this morning, especially across central KS

- Shower and thunderstorm chances arrive late tonight into (30-60%)
Thursday morning; widespread showers (80-90%) Thursday into Friday

- Additional shower chances late this weekend into next week

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 354 AM CST Wed Nov 19 2025

As of 330 AM Wednesday morning, shortwave midlevel ridging was
sliding through the Plains as a deepening trough was coming ashore
across southern CA. At the surface an area of high pressure extends
from central KS through MN and WI. Light winds and occasional clear
skies continue to produce patchy dense fog, especially across
central KS where wind speeds are the lightest. The plume of midlevel
moisture from the Baja region continues to produce occasional
midlevel clouds across the state, limiting the potential for
widespread, persistent dense fog.

Transitioning into today and tonight, the surface ridge will quickly
side east through the day today as lee troughing develops across the
high Plains with the approach of a southwest US midlevel trough. The
initial impacts from this midlevel trough will arrive late tonight
night into Thursday morning as modest WAA overspreads portions of
south-central and southeast KS. In addition, midlevel lapse rates
will steepen to 6-8 C/km across the Plains with the approach of the
midlevel trough. Latest CAM guidance continues to suggest low-level
saturation will be sufficient for the erosion of inhibition of 1000-
1500 J/kg of MUCAPE, mainly across southeast KS. In addition,
hodographs within this elevated environment reveal both veering and
acceleration of the wind profile, producing upwards of 30-40 kt of
effective shear. As a result, the strongest storms late tonight into
Thursday morning will carry a large hail threat.

Strong midlevel height falls will overspread the central Plains
Thursday afternoon into Thursday night, resulting in widespread
rainfall. Additional deformation precipitation is likely Friday into
Friday evening as the midlevel level trough slowly progresses into
the MS valley. Latest NBM probabilistic guidance suggests all of
central, south-central, and southeast KS stand a 90-100% for
receiving more than 0.50" of rain through Friday evening. The
potential for more than 1" of rainfall ranges from 50-60% across
central KS to near 90% across southeast KS.

Midlevel ridging will slide into the central/southern Plains
throughout the weekend with mostly sunny skies and seasonable
temperatures in the 50s to near 60 expected. Another strong midlevel
trough will begin its approach the central Plains by late weekend
into early next week. Shower chances will once again increase with
its approach. Stay tuned.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1211 PM CST Wed Nov 19 2025

Increasing mid-level moisture ahead of a western US storm
system will spread hit-or-miss light showers east-northeast
across the region late this afternoon through the evening.
Thinking this activity will be fairly light and scattered, so
only included PROB30 -SHRA from late this afternoon through the
evening at most TAF sites.

Later tonight over southeast Kansas, increasing deep warm/moist
advection and associated instability will support scattered to
numerous showers/thunderstorms, possibly impacting the CNU TAF
site between roughly 07z and 12z. Later shifts may need to
consider adding a TEMPO group for this threat at CNU.

Widespread rain with embedded thunderstorms will gradually
increase from the south late morning Thursday through the
afternoon all areas, and persisting through Thursday night all
areas.

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...BRF
AVIATION...ADK