249
FXUS63 KICT 292345
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
645 PM CDT Tue Sep 29 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Seasonable temperatures over the next week (upper 70s to lower 80s)

- Widespread rainfall through Thursday; highest rainfall amounts
  expected across portions of central KS and southeast KS -
  Flood Watch for Lincoln/Russell counties

- A few severe storms cannot be ruled out Wednesday afternoon
  across portions of central and south-central KS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 234 PM CDT Tue Sep 29 2026

As of 2 PM Tuesday afternoon, numerous showers and isolated
thunderstorms are ongoing across the central portions of KS. These
showers and thunderstorms are primarily due to a lead, midlevel
shortwave trough lifting through eastern CO/western KS. A tropical
airmass continues to advect into the region with PW values approach
2", especially across central and south-central KS. Thus far, hourly
rainfall rates have ranged from 0.25-0.75". Unless we see an uptick
in convective elements within this broad precipitation shield, these
rates should hold throughout the afternoon hours. As the shortwave
trough lifts into NE later this afternoon/evening, weak subsidence
in its wake should decrease coverage of shower/storm activity, at
least briefly.

Showers and thunderstorms will continue into the nighttime hours
Tuesday night into Wednesday morning as strong low/midlevel WAA
overlap with increasing midlevel height falls. Latest CAM and global
guidance has slightly shifted the heaviest axis of rainfall
southeast and may encompass more of central KS. The abnormally moist
airmass will continue to support heavy rainfall with rates exceeding
1" per hour possible, especially with any convective elements. The
main midlevel low will eject into the central Plains Wednesday
afternoon with continued rounds of heavy rainfall as chances spread
eastwards into southeast KS. In fact, the potential for a few severe
storms will increase Wednesday afternoon across central and south-
central KS. A Pacific front/dryline will progress across the area
during the afternoon hours. The prefrontal environment will remain
very moist with lapse rates up to 7 C/km resulting in instability of
500-1000 J/kg. Shear, on the other hand, will be quite impressive
with long, veering hodographs throughout the profile (~40 kt of
effective shear). Should this environment emerge, a few supercells
would become likely with large hail, damaging winds, and even
tornadoes possible.

Strong midlevel height falls combined with right exit jet dynamics
should support widespread rainfall late Wednesday into Thursday
morning. This axis should setup across portions eastern OK into
eastern KS. As the midlevel low/trough slides through the area late
Thursday into Thursday night, deformation precipitation will
progress through the entire area. The greatest rain totals are still
forecast to remain across portions of central and southeast KS.
Widespread totals up to 3" with locally higher amounts are expected.
The Flood Watch remains unchanged although short term trends will
need to be monitored for an expansion towards the I-135 corridor.

For Friday and beyond, midlevel heights will increase as western
CONUS ridge axis builds into the Plains. This should yield drier
conditions but seasonable temperatures in the 70s.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 642 PM CDT Tue Sep 29 2026

A brief break in the persistent, heavy shower activity is
expected during the overnight hours. Activity will increase in
coverage and intensity again around 12Z with thunderstorm
probabilities increasing around 18Z. Prevailing MVFR cigs and
vis are expected throughout the day tomorrow with brief periods
of IFR conditions possible during heavier activity. Winds will
remain around 10 knots out of the south/southeast.

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flood Watch through Thursday evening for KSZ032-033.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...BRF
AVIATION...AMD