358
FXUS63 KICT 061742
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
1242 PM CDT Sat Jun 6 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Chances for showers and storms to increase today and will
  linger through Monday morning.

- Hot and very humid conditions increasingly likely mid-week
  next week.

- Chances for showers and storms to increase again towards the
  end of next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 342 AM CDT Sat Jun 6 2026

Early this morning, much of Kansas remains between two areas of
activity located over Nebraska and Oklahoma. While the showers and
storms over Nebraska will eventually track eastward away from the
forecast area, an upper trough over the southern plains will slowly
lumber northward today and be the primary catalyst for increasing
chances for showers and storms this afternoon and evening.
Lackluster shear and poor lapse rates will likely limit the intensity
of any storm that develops; however, gusty winds from downbursts are
still possible with the strongest storms. Even with the loss of
diurnal heating, showers and storms will continue during the
nighttime hours and well into Sunday morning. In terms of coverage,
much of the activity will likely be focused across southern and
eastern Kansas with more isolated activity anticipated across
central Kansas. A brief break is possible midday Sunday before
another round of diurnally driven convection develops Sunday
afternoon, mainly across eastern Kansas. Similar to today, modest
shear and instability will keep a lid on storm intensity, but an
isolated downburst here and there could produce locally gusty winds.

Meanwhile, a trough slowly moving over the Rockies and into the
northern High Plains will support scattered thunderstorm development
across the High Plains Sunday afternoon and evening. While there is
a low chance that some of these storms could sneak into central
Kansas Sunday evening and night, trends have pushed this activity
further north into Nebraska. Therefore, aside from some lingering
showers across far eastern Kansas, most of the rain chances should
end late Sunday night into Monday morning. Similar to Sunday,
another round of storms appears likely to develop across the High
Plains Monday afternoon; however, this activity looks less likely to
enter into central Kansas than 24 hours ago thanks in part to a
strengthening mid/upper ridge across the southern CONUS.

While the aforementioned ridge will help to temporarily shut off
rain chances, it will serve to promote an early season heat wave
across the central plains. Despite ample moisture from all of the
recent rainfall, afternoon temperatures Tuesday and Wednesday are
currently forecast to be in the mid 90s to the low 100s. Given
forecast dewpoints in the 60s and 70s (and perhaps in the upper 70s
across southeast Kansas), heat indices will easily reach 105 to 110,
especially across southern and southeast Kansas. The mid/upper ridge
is forecast to weaken toward the end of next week as a series
of anomalously powerful deep layer troughs begin to parade
across the northern and central CONUS. As such, chances for
showers and storms will be on the increase heading into the end
of the next week and the following weekend. Stay tuned for
updates to the forecast over the coming days.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1241 PM CDT Sat Jun 6 2026

Rain showers with MVFR cigs will be the main story through the TAF
period. Showers will push in from the south, impacting KCNU first
towards the start of the TAF period, then filtering into KICT, KHUT,
and KSLN later this afternoon and eventually into KGBD and KRSL
overnight. Isolated thunderstorms are possible, though confidence is
decreasing, especially for terminals farther west and north (KSLN,
KRSL, and KGBD). Have included PROB30 groups to cover the most
likely period of thunderstorm activity through the afternoon and
evening for KCNU, KICT, and KHUT. Heavy rainfall rates and gusty
winds would be the main concern with stronger storms, particularly
at KCNU.

Cigs will begin to improve from west to east after sunrise Sunday,
but showers will remain possible through the end of the TAF
period.

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...JC
AVIATION...CFH