836
FXUS63 KICT 141127
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
627 AM CDT Mon Sep 14 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Hot and windy conditions today will lead to marginal fire
  weather concerns and heat indices exceeding 100.

- Storm chances return to central Kansas late tonight/Tuesday
  morning, then more widespread chances forecast Tuesday
  afternoon through Wednesday morning. Marginally severe storms
  and localized flooding are possible.

- Warmer temperatures return for the end of the week, then
  milder temperatures are forecast for this weekend. A few
  showers and storms are possible as well towards the end of the
  week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 340 AM CDT Mon Sep 14 2026

     TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

Early this morning, water vapor satellite imagery and upper air
analysis show upper ridging across the south-central CONUS
sandwiched between a pair of deep layer troughs across the
northeast CONUS and northern Rockies. The upper ridge will be
one one of the main drivers for warmer than average temperatures
across much of the forecast area through much of the week while
the trough across the northern Rockies will be one of the
primary factors in a stalled frontal boundary residing across
central/northern Kansas through mid-week potentially leading to
several rounds of showers and storms across these areas.

For today, strong southerly low-level flow will usher in a warmer
airmass into the region. Additionally, a tight pressure gradient out
ahead of a slowly approaching cold front will lead to breezy/windy
conditions across much of the forecast area. While mid-level winds
aren`t crazy, deep mixing caused by strong diurnal heating will help
to mix down wind gusts between 35-40 mph, especially this afternoon
along and west of I-135. Opted not to go with a wind advisory in
central Kansas, but it`s possible some locations could briefly see
up to 45 mph wind gust for a couple of hours. In addition to the
windy conditions, highs across the entire forecast area will rise
into the mid to upper 90s. With unseasonably hot conditions, windy
conditions, and dry vegetation (even with some recent rainfall),
very high grassland fire danger is likely for areas along and west
of I-135 this afternoon. That being said, dewpoints in the low 60s
should mitigate fire weather concerns some.

Later tonight into Tuesday morning, a sharp cold front will sag into
northern Kansas. Ahead of a lob of vorticity aloft rounding the base
of the deep layer trough over the northern CONUS, widespread showers
and storms are expected to develop and overspread much of north-
central and northeast Kansas. It`s possible a couple storms sneak
into central Kansas, but much of the activity Monday night into
early Tuesday morning will remain along and north of I-70. There
could be a lull in precipitation from Tuesday morning into Tuesday
afternoon. Then, strong diurnal heating along the frontal boundary
along with a weak and subtle upper trough moving east out of the
High Plains should be enough to trigger additional showers and
storms across most locations except for far southeast Kansas. Based
on environmental instability (around 1500-2000 J/kg MLCAPE) and
shear (effective shear around 20-25 knots), some strong to
marginally severe storms are possible with downbursts producing 50-
60 mph wind gusts being the primary concern. PWATs between 1.7 and
1.9 will support the potential for heavy rainfall as well. Some
training of thunderstorms is possible, especially later in the
evening hours across portions of central Kansas, which could lead to
localized flooding. Storm chances have decreased for Wednesday, and
this makes since given the frontal boundary becoming more diffuse
and the lack of synoptic support. In fact, much of the activity may
be limited to late Wednesday night when mid-level WAA ramps up on
the nose of the LLJ, but most showers and storms will be north of I-
70 late Wednesday night into Thursday morning.

     THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

The forecast becomes a bit more uncertain towards the latter half of
the week, especially towards the weekend as the upper pattern
becomes a bit ill-defined. However, mid-range guidance this morning
suggests upper ridging across the southern CONUS briefly builds back
into the central plains on Thursday and Friday leading to afternoon
highs in the low to mid 90s, and lows in the low 70s, which is about
10 degrees above average. Then, weak troughing lumbering across the
central plains will be the catalyst for a cold front arriving late
Friday/early Saturday. At the moment, the forecast calls for milder
temperatures for this weekend, but details are subject to change
this far out. Additionally, this cold front could also bring another
shot at spotty chances for showers and storms.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 623 AM CDT Mon Sep 14 2026

Despite VFR conditions generally prevailing through the TAF
period, a few concerns for aviation interests will need to be
monitored.

Southerly winds are forecast to increase this morning and top
out this afternoon across the area. Sustained winds this
afternoon will be around 15 to 25 knots with gusts around 25 to
40 knots at times. The windiest conditions will be across
portions of central Kansas. Then, a very slow moving cold front
will approach central Kansas late tonight into early Tuesday
morning. Winds across central Kansas will decrease some, and
isolated showers and storms will also be possible, mainly
towards 12Z Tuesday morning. Meanwhile, LLWS will overspread
much of southern and eastern Kansas during the early morning
hours on Tuesday.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 340 AM CDT Mon Sep 14 2026

Unseasonably hot temperatures and gusty southerly winds could
support very high fire danger along and west of I-135 this
afternoon. Southerly winds will be sustained at around 25-30 mph
with gusts around 40-45 mph. That being said, antecedent
rainfall and dewpoints in the low 60s should mitigate fire
weather concerns somewhat.

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...JC
AVIATION...JC
FIRE WEATHER...JC