732
FXUS63 KICT 031141
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
641 AM CDT Wed Sep 3 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Storms possible late this afternoon and evening with large
  hail likely with the stronger storms.

- Storms possible late Thursday night into Friday morning with a
  couple strong storms possible.

- Below normal temps starting again on Thursday with highs
  Friday through the weekend in the low 70s.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 310 AM CDT Wed Sep 3 2025

Currently have a broad upper trough encompassing most of the
Eastern CONUS with a deep upper low sinking south across Eastern
Manitoba/Western Ontario. At the surface, a cold front
stretches from northern IA across Northern Nebraska.

Clear skies and light winds have allowed for good radiational
cooling conditions which has brought some patchy fog to central
and south central KS with some pockets of dense fog likely. Any
fog should quickly burn off a couple hours after sunrise.

Cold front will continue to surge south today and by 21z will be
approaching I-70. Storms are expected to develop along the front
as as it continues south. Models remain consistent with around
2,000-3,000J/kg of ML CAPE with very impressive 0-6km shear in
the 40-45kts range. Much of the shear is the product of great
directional shear between 850-500mb. So feel that golf ball size
hail is definitely in play with some larger stones not out of
the question. Current thinking is that most of the activity will
not make it into our forecast area until around or after 4pm
with activity becoming a bit more widespread after 5-6pm as the
front continues to push south. By 03-05z Thu, most of the
activity should be moving out of the forecast area.

By Thu morning, deep upper low will be situated over Southern
Ontario with another piece of energy quickly diving south across
Southern Saskatchewan. This impulse will track over the Northern
Plains Thu and into the Upper Mississippi Valley Thu evening.
This will allow an even stronger front to surge south across the
Plains and is set to move through the forecast area late Thu
night into Fri morning. Storms will also be tied to this front
with a strong storm or two possible. Showers and storms should
start to push south of the forecast area by late Fri afternoon
into early Fri evening.

For the weekend, both the 00z runs of the ECMWF and GFS agree on
tracking some tropical energy across Baja and into the Southern
Plains by Sun morning. This is a change for the GFS which took
this energy over KS with it`s previous 00z run. So will linger
some small pops for Sun into Mon, but if models continue this
trend, would not be shocked if they are removed with later
forecasts.

As far as temps go, today will be the warmest of the next
several days, with highs in the mid to upper 80s. Cold front
will knock highs down several degrees for Thu, but the big cold
surge will come by Fri, with highs around 70 for Fri with low
70s through the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 630 AM CDT Wed Sep 3 2025

Aviation concerns will be some patchy dense fog this morning
and storm chances late this afternoon and evening.

Patchy dense fog developed a few hours ago across south central
KS into the Flint Hills. While it`s not affecting many AWOS/ASOS
sites, satellite and reports indicate that there are pockets of
dense fog. KHUT and KICT will be the TAF sites most likely to
experience it for the next couple of hours. Attention will then
turn to a cold front set to move through late this afternoon
through the evening hours and storms that develop along it.

While confidence is high that storms will develop along the
front, confidence is low on how much coverage there will be. For
now will run with PROB30s at all sites with the exception of
KRSL-KGBD. As far as timing, they should move through KSLN
around 22z and KICT-KCNU in the 23-00z time frame. Large hail
will be possible with the stronger storms.

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM CDT this morning for KSZ051>053-
067>069-082-083-091>093.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...RBL
AVIATION...RBL