456
FXUS63 KICT 072345
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
645 PM CDT Mon Sep 7 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Isolated showers and storms possible this afternoon into the
  early evening, primarily along/east of the Flint Hills.

- Hot Tuesday, with high temperatures areawide near/above 100
  degrees and heat indices around 105. This heat may linger into
  Wednesday across southern Kansas.

- A shift in the dry pattern arrives Tuesday night with showers
  and storm chances lingering through the end of the week.

- Cooler, yet seasonably warm temperatures anticipated areawide
  Thursday through the upcoming weekend before a taste of autumn
  arrives early next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 205 PM CDT Mon Sep 7 2026

Current water vapor imagery and RAP analysis depict continued
ridging over the central CONUS as an upper shortwave pivots over the
Northern Rockies. Surface analysis indicates a stationary boundary
spanning from the Northern High Plains to the Red River Valley. This
boundary is anticipated to slowly drift eastward throughout the day
today, and MLCAPE to its east around 1000-1500 J/kg amid a
weakly capped airmass will allow for another round of showers
and storms across eastern Kansas later this afternoon into early
evening. Similar to Sunday, DCAPE values progged around 1300
J/kg indicate strong to marginally severe downburst winds with
the strongest activity, which should reside roughly along and
east of the Flint Hills. Effective shear around 20-25 kts
suggests limited organization and more of a pulse storm mode. As
such, we are expecting activity to remain mostly isolated with
chances greatly diminishing around sunset with the loss of
daytime heating.

High temperatures in the low 100s are forecast areawide for
Tuesday afternoon with ridging remaining in place. A pattern
change continues to be expected later in the day, however, as a
shortwave ejects into the Northern Plains. This will drive a
cold front south across the Plains, and this feature will bring
scattered shower and storm chances to central Kansas by late
afternoon or early evening. While widespread severe weather
appears unlikely at this time, deep-layer shear oriented largely
parallel to the front may allow for severe wind gusts if storms
manage to become linear.

The cold front will continue south on Wednesday and promote
chances for showers and storms throughout the forecast area.
Daytime high temperatures will be heavily influenced by this
boundary, with locations behind it expected to see readings near
90 degrees and locations ahead of it potentially seeing another
day of readings in the low 100s. PW values in the 1.7-2" range
in the vicinity of the front suggest the potential for moderate
to heavy rainfall across the area, which could lead to localized
flooding concerns particularly across southeast Kansas. For
Thursday, highs in the post-frontal airmass will reach into the
upper 80s areawide as weak southerly winds return to the region.

Chances for showers and storms are forecast to return Thursday night
into Friday with long-range guidance signaling the potential for
low/mid-level WAA increasing across the forecast area. For Friday,
breezy southerly flow ahead of a surface trough developing across
the High Plains will promote warming back into the low to middle
90s, and these temperatures will look to persist into Saturday
before another cold front sweeps across the forecast area. This
boundary will bring additional chances for showers and storms to the
region but will likely not bring cooler temperatures as guidance
suggests return flow quickly resuming by Sunday. This looks to
change, however, by perhaps next Monday or Tuesday with long-
range consensus indicating a strong mid/upper impulse tracking
across the Northern Plains once again and driving yet another
cold front across the Central Plains. While details remain
unclear, seasonably cool (or perhaps even cooler) temperatures
appear possible with the passage of this system. Stay tuned as
additional information becomes available.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 627 PM CDT Mon Sep 7 2026

VFR conditions are expected through this TAF period. The main
concern to aviation will be gusty southerly winds with winds
diminishing to around 10-15 kts after 02z. Winds will then pick
back up after 14z and continue through the early evening on
Tuesday. A few showers and storms are possible to develop late
Tuesday afternoon as a cold front pushes into northern Kansas
though better chances look to develop closer to 00z mainly in
central Kansas. Given this uncertainty, mention was not included
in this issuance, but trends will continue to be monitored.

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT Tuesday for KSZ032-033-047>053-
067>072-082-083-091>096-098>100.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...JWK
AVIATION...GC