565
FXUS63 KICT 271136
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
636 AM CDT Sun Sep 27 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Storms will continue this morning over southeast Kansas with
  brief periods of heavy rainfall the main threat.

- Widespread showers and storms starting over western/central
 Kansas late Monday night with heavy rain and flooding
 potential shifting east for Wednesday into Thursday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 244 AM CDT Sun Sep 27 2026

Currently have a weak upper impulse situated over IA with a deep
upper low off of the Eastern Seaboard. Meanwhile, weak upper ridging
is in place from the Central/Southern Rockies into the High Plains.

Storms have been ongoing over southeast KS into eastern OK for the
last several hours. This is in an area of 850-700mb theta-e
advection and is also just ahead of a weak mid level trough. While
this activity may not remain this widespread, at least a few storms
will continue for at least the next 3-5 hours and possibly a
bit longer over southeast KS as the mid level trough takes its
time sliding east. Even though we will be fairly unstable this
afternoon with minimal capping, went ahead and kept pops out due
to lack of decent focus or upper support. However, it`s not
completely out of the question a storm or two could develop
mainly over the Flint Hills this afternoon.

By Monday morning there remains good model agreement in a deep
upper low digging over Central/Southern CA with upper riding
through the Plains. This will keep things dry across the area
for Mon into early Mon evening. Showers and storms will start to
overspread western and central KS late Mon night into Tue
morning as upper diffluence starts to overspread the High Plains
along with low level jet ramping up. By Tue afternoon, upper
low will be digging over the Desert Southwest with what is left
of Polo starting to get pulled across eastern Sonora and
eventually southwest TX. Still looking like the bulk of the
heavy rain through Tue will be from Western KS through Central
KS and into eastern NE. This is where 850mb convergence zone
will be situated, and with PW values around or slightly over 2
inches, heavy rain and flooding will be likely with the stronger
activity. Normal PW values for this time of year are around
0.85 in.

Upper low and associated vort max will start to move out across
the High Plains on Wed afternoon into Wed evening. The late Wed
night through Thu time frame is when it looks like all of the
forecast will have the best chance to see widespread heavy rain,
as the front slowly works through the area. For Thu night into
Sat, the upper low looks to get cut off over Northern TX/TX
Panhandle, which will keep pops in for southern and southeast
KS.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 632 AM CDT Sun Sep 27 2026

Main aviation concern will be fog this morning along with a few
storms over SE KS.

Currently have a few storms remaining over far southeast KS and
will affect KCNU for a few more hours. Fog has developed over
northwest and central KS over the last couple of hours, mainly
affecting KRSL-KGBD. Currently expecting visibilities to fall to
less than a mile through around 15z along with LIFR cigs and
will start to improve later this morning. Fog and low clouds
are expected to develop again late tonight, affecting the same
general areas.


&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...RBL
AVIATION...RBL