892
FXUS63 KICT 312355
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
655 PM CDT Sun Aug 31 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Scattered showers and storms will linger tonight through
  Monday, especially across southeast Kansas. Locally heavy rain
  will be possible at times.

- Isolated strong or severe storms will be possible on Wednesday
  afternoon and Wednesday evening.

- Seasonably cool temperatures will persist through much of the
  upcoming week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 210 PM CDT Sun Aug 31 2025

A subtle shortwave trough over eastern Kansas will drift eastward
this afternoon allowing for some breaks in the clouds and a brief
lull in precipitation. The airmass is progged to remain uncapped
with a moist pbl allowing for quick recovery with some
afternoon/evening redevelopment possible. Another shortwave trough
over eastern Nebraska is progged to drift slowly south and east
tonight through Monday night before arriving over the Middle
Mississippi Valley area on Tuesday. This will result in some
lingering showers across much of the area through Monday evening
before slowly waning late Monday night. Limited insolation and
scattered showers will result in humid but seasonably cool
temperatures with highs in the upper 70s and lower 80s.

Tue-Wed...Mostly dry and seasonably cool conditions are anticipated
Tuesday as we remain within a northwest mid/upper flow regime. A
more robust mid/upper trough digging towards the Great Lakes area
will drive a frontal boundary southward over the Central Plains late
Wednesday. It may arrive too slow to have a big impact on
Wednesday`s high temperatures. A line of showers and
thunderstorms is expected to develop along the frontal boundary
on Wed afternoon with convergence along the front.
Shear/buoyancy profiles support some potential for a few strong
or perhaps severe storms with large hail and damaging winds
possible.

Thu-Sun...A stable post-frontal regime is progged across the area on
Thursday with a continuation of below normal temperatures. Highs are
expected to rise into the lower 70s on Thu while lows fall into the
50s. Another frontal boundary will arrive on Friday reinforcing the
cooler air. Most areas will see highs in the upper 70s on Friday. A
broad mid/upper ridge is progged to translate eastward over the
weekend while a shortwave trough impacts the Southern Plains. Mostly
dry conditions are anticipated at this time with a continuation of
below average temperatures with highs in the 70s/lows in the
50s.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 642 PM CDT Sun Aug 31 2025

Challenges
1) IFR & LIFR conditions tonight-Monday AM in the west
2) Coverage of showers and storms

Widely scattered showers and a few rumbles of thunder will
persist into Monday. The question is the coverage of this
activity, so it was decided to keep VCSH for all but KCNU in
the short term based on radar trends. After what occurred last
night into this morning given the moist airmass, observations
were the guide for tonight into Monday morning with the
potential for reductions in both ceiling and visibility into the
IFR even LIFR categories during the peak from 9-13Z for the
western sites. There may need to be adjustments with the next
issuance to tweak the timing in longevity and associated
reduction. Daytime heating should bring improvements around
14/15Z to scatter out the fog/lower clouds. Light and variable
winds will become northerly but remain between 5-10kts on
Monday.

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...MWM
AVIATION...VJP