688
FXUS63 KICT 101109
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
609 AM CDT Sat Oct 10 2026

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Well above normal temperatures and breezy south winds will
  continue through about mid next week.

- Shower and thunderstorm chances are likely to return by
  Tuesday or Tuesday night, and persist into late next week.

- A cool down closer to seasonable or even below normal
  temperatures is likely by late next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 205 AM CDT Sat Oct 10 2026

PRECIPITATION CHANCES:

The remnants of Hurricane Isaias over the SE CONUS will continue to
phase with a meandering upper low over the Southern Plains and Lower
Mississippi Valley today, with widespread precipitation associated
with these features remaining well east of the forecast area.

Chances for off-and-on rain/thunderstorms across the forecast area
enter back into the forecast by Tuesday or Tuesday night and persist
through week`s end, as a cold front approaches from the northwest
and a deep upper trough approaches from the west. Increasing shear
coupled with modest instability and strong forcing may support a
handful of strong to severe thunderstorms during this time period.
Additionally, well above average precipitable waters may support
heavy rainfall.

The latest model guidance has diverged from their recent consensus,
with the GFS and Canadian models much more progressive with this
system, clearing precipitation by Thursday afternoon. In contrast,
the much slower ECMWF lingers precipitation chances possibly as late
as Saturday. Stay tuned as we refine forecast details in the coming
days.

TEMPERATURES & WIND:

Above average heights/thickness will support continued above average
temperatures through about mid next week. Daytime temperatures a few
degrees either side of 90 degrees look probable, especially through
Monday or Tuesday. Additionally, stout south to southwest winds
should gust upwards of 30-35 mph through Monday, owing to deep and
persistent low pressure to the west-northwest of the region.
Increased sustained speeds a bit from NBM today through Monday.

As we head into Thursday or Friday of next week, model consensus
supports a potentially drastic cool down in wake of the
aforementioned storm system, as stout Canadian high pressure settles
southeast into Mid-America. The latest GFS and Canadian models
support a deeper central to eastern CONUS upper trough and
associated cooler temperatures compared to the somewhat warmer
ECMWF. For now, ran with daytime highs mostly in the 60s-70s Friday
and Saturday with lows in the 40s-50s, although this period could
turn out to be cooler than currently forecast (e.g. GFS has highs in
the 40s Saturday!)...stay tuned.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 605 AM CDT Sat Oct 10 2026

Fairly quiet VFR conditions are expected the next 24 hours
across the region. There will be some marginal low-level wind
shear around 1500-2000 ft AGL early this morning across the
region, but thought it too marginal to include in the 12z TAFs.
Same holds true for tonight. Otherwise, gusty south surface
winds will get going by mid-late morning today, strongest
generally west of the KS Turnpike.

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...ADK
AVIATION...ADK