220
FXUS63 KICT 101853
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
153 PM CDT Mon Aug 10 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Hot temperatures expected to continue through at least Thursday.

- Shower and storm chances may increase toward the latter half
  of the week, with the best chances for the forecast area
  expected heading into the weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 153 PM CDT Mon Aug 10 2026

Current water vapor imagery and RAP analysis indicate continued
ridging across the Four Corners as a stationary boundary sits across
northern Kansas. Residual showers from a midlevel baroclinic zone
drifted over portions of northern Kansas earlier today, and cloud
cover from these has lingered over central Kansas. We continue to
expect hot conditions across most locations through the remainder of
the afternoon into the early evening, particularly south of US-50
where cloud coverage is limited. Looking ahead to Tuesday, little
change in the synoptic pattern is expected with the ridge in place.
A slight northward shift in the surface boundary along with a subtle
increase in the westerly (downslope) component of surface winds
should allow for hotter temperatures in the afternoon and early
evening. As such, many locations should see heat indices
around/above 105 degrees. Similar to today, there are questions as
to how hot temperatures get across portions of central Kansas given
high clouds overhead heading into the afternoon. However, current
thinking is that heat indices should still be able to clear advisory
criteria areawide, so decided to issue a heat advisory for the
entire forecast area Tuesday afternoon into the early evening.
Another day of heat is expected Wednesday with widespread highs
forecast above 100 degrees.

Global models continue to highlight a change to the overall pattern
late Wednesday as midlevel energy arrives across the Pacific
Northwest and further south across southern California. These two
features will allow for southwesterly mid/upper flow to return to
the central CONUS through the weekend. Perturbations in this flow
trekking out of the Rockies will bring repeated chances for showers
and storms to portions of the Plains beginning Wednesday night and
lasting through the weekend, though as this morning`s
discussion pointed out, exactly how far south these chances make
it remains uncertain. Trends in long-term guidance so far
continue to suggest locations to our north and west will have
the greatest chances for meaningful precipitation, and with the
surface boundary continuing to linger across northern Kansas,
this would suggest hot and dry conditions through at least
Thursday. Models hint at the potential for a southward shift of
the boundary toward the end of the week, which may bring better
chances for rain to the forecast area as we head into the
weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1207 PM CDT Mon Aug 10 2026

VFR and breezy conditions expected over the next 24 hours.

Surface winds will remain southerly or south-southwesterly
through the TAF period. Wind speeds will be around 10 to 15
knots with gusts around 20 to 25 knots across the area.

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for KSZ032-033-
047>053-067>072-082-083-091>096-098>100.
Heat Advisory from noon to 8 PM CDT Tuesday for KSZ032-033-
047>053-067>072-082-083-091>096-098>100.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...JWK
AVIATION...JC