085
FXUS63 KICT 021128
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
528 AM CST Mon Nov 2 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

-  A few strong storms possible this morning with better chances for
severe storms this afternoon and evening

- A dry weather pattern looks to prevail for Wednesday through
  the upcoming weekend with perhaps a low chance for a few rain
  showers in southern Kansas on Thursday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 242 AM CST Mon Nov 2 2026

Current satellite water vapor imagery shows lead short wave over
northern New Mexico/southeast Colorado racing northeast. This system
has sparked off a line of showers/storms over the Texas panhandle
and southwest Kansas. This activity will race northeast and reach
locations along and west of I-35/I-135 early this morning. The
strong wind shear/low CAPE environment could support a few stronger
wind gusts especially for any organized line segment due to downward
mixing of low level jet winds to the surface. This line of storms
will shift into southeast Kansas where it could uptick a bit in
intensity this afternoon. The next area we will be watching closely
for storm re-development and magnitude of daytime heating is between
2pm-5pm for locations near or west of highway 14 in central/south
central KS. This is where high resolution models continue to show
higher probabilities of storm initiation ahead of upper PV wave
along the dry-line. Environment should become more favorable for
surface based severe storm potential given favorable combination of
0-3km CAPE and 0-1km SRH co-located with 40-50kts of effective wind
shear. This presents a brief window for storm mode to start out semi-
discrete before quickly transitioning to more linear storm mode
given evolution of wind shear vector alignment. The initial stronger
storms would capable of producing damaging winds, large hail, along
with a risk for a few brief tornadoes into the early evening hours
followed by a transition thereafter to mainly strong-damaging winds
as the storms become linear. The line of storms looks to shift east
of southeast Kansas around midnight.

Upper level wave will shift northeast of Kansas on Tuesday with
deformation area of wrap around showers ending over central Kansas
by late morning. The departing upper level wave will push cooler
drier air southward along with gusty northwest winds. A dry weather
pattern for the Kansas region seems likely to unfold for Wednesday
through the upcoming weekend. Although models do show another
weather system ejecting from the Rockies and moving southeast into
the southern plains on Thursday. This system will have limited
moisture to work with so not expecting much other than perhaps a few
rain showers over southern Kansas for Thursday. Long range
deterministic models are consistently showing a upper-level wave
dropping southeast across the northern plains, then deepening
considerably with-in a northwest flow regime aloft over Iowa/Illinois
region. This current weather system track would keep precipitation
chances east of Kansas as drier air spreads southeast from Nebraska
into Kansas.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 519 AM CST Mon Nov 2 2026

Showers with a few storms currently moving through the CWA with
IFR to MVFR cigs impacting all sites. A few storms could become
strong with strong outflow gusts of 50-60 mph possible but most
areas will simply see showers with an occasional lightning
strike or two. The bigger show should develop in the 20-23Z time
frame as severe storms form along a dry line moving into the
area as the main upper wave transits the region. Severe wind
gusts, large hail and a tornado or two cannot be ruled out so
closely monitor the area in this time frame.

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...CDJ
AVIATION...SGS