727
FXUS63 KICT 272322
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
622 PM CDT Fri Jun 27 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Lingering isolated showers and storms across southeast Kansas
  this afternoon and evening.

- Low storm chances Saturday night into Sunday morning.

- Higher storm chances Sunday night through Monday morning.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 214 PM CDT Fri Jun 27 2025

Early this afternoon, the remnants of this morning`s showers and
storms continue to slowly dissipate across southeast Kansas as more
vigorous activity continues across southwestern Missouri. The
forecast area sits underneath weak southwest flow aloft with an
upper ridge centered over the Red River Valley, and a trough
progressing eastward across the northern plains. Sufficient
low/mid-level moisture, slight perturbations in the upper level
flow, and almost non existent capping this afternoon should
leave the door open to a couple of additional isolated showers
and storms this afternoon across far southern Kansas, although
chances will be quite low (at or under 20%). PWATs this
afternoon won`t be quite as high as yesterday as the primary
axis has shifted eastward; however, any storm that does develop
is likely to produce brief heavy rainfall. Some localized
flooding is possible if heavy rainfall persists for at least an
hour or so. Slightly better chances for showers and storms will
be late tonight into Saturday morning for areas along and
southeast of the Kansas Turnpike. Similar to this morning, rich
and deep moisture and ever so subtle mid-level WAA should
trigger and sustain a few showers and storms across southeast
Kansas through the morning hours on Saturday. With the axis of
moisture remaining across southeast Kansas Saturday afternoon,
any areas that can get sufficient diurnal heating may see
isolated redevelopment of showers and storms Saturday afternoon
and evening.

The upper ridge lingering across the southern plains is forecast to
weaken and slide eastward by the latter half of the weekend. This
will open the door for a shortwave trough to dig into the
northern/central plains Sunday and Monday which will support the
next real storm chances across the region Sunday evening into
Monday morning as a weak cold front sweeps across the area. Gobs
of instability (between 2000-5000 J/kg) will be present Sunday
evening and much of this will linger into the nighttime hours;
however, shear is expected to remain below 20 knots. Decreasing
instability and weak shear will be limiting factors for storm
organization, and this is why severe storms are not explicitly
being forecast at the moment. With that being said, we can`t
rule out some rowdy storms Sunday night into Monday morning
with gusty winds and frequent lightning possible. Additionally,
PWATs in the vicinity of 1.75" will support heavy rainfall, and
localized flooding is a possibility Sunday night and Monday
morning.

After the morning hours on Monday, the pattern becomes a bit more
nebulous with the better axis of moisture setting up over Oklahoma.
A post frontal airmass will help to keep afternoon temperatures in
the 80s for a couple of day before a warming trend commences.
Starting mid-week next week, a gradual warming trend is
forecast, and afternoon temperatures should return to the 90s by
the end of next week.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 555 PM CDT Fri Jun 27 2025

Isolated thunderstorms and scattered showers will persist
across mainly southeast Kansas this evening. Winds will continue
to decrease this evening with light southerly winds expected
through the night. Toward sunrise additional storms are possible
across southern Kansas and then area wide towards the end of
this TAF period but confidence in these storms impacting a
terminal remains low. Outside of thunderstorms, VFR conditions
are expected.

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...JC
AVIATION...WI