879
FXUS63 KICT 160347
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
1047 PM CDT Sun Jun 15 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Chances for showers and storms return Monday evening into
  Tuesday morning, primarily in north and central KS.

- Better chances for storms Tuesday afternoon and evening into
  Wednesday morning.

- Dry through the rest of the week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 232 PM CDT Sun Jun 15 2025

Water vapor imagery this afternoon depicts weak mid/upper flow
across the central CONUS as a jet max sits just off the Pacific
coast. At the surface, a stalled frontal boundary spans from the
Red River Valley toward the Ohio River Valley, while light
southerly winds dominate the scene over the central and
southeast Kansas.

Short-range models continue to highlight the potential for showers
and thunderstorms later tonight to our west as an MCS rolls in off
the High Plains. Can`t rule out an isolated shower or two making it
into central Kansas, but for the time being it appears the best
chances will stay west and south along the low-level theta-e axis.
Therefore, confidence to this point is relatively high in dry
conditions across the forecast area heading into Monday.

Zonal flow aloft is expected to resume throughout the day on Monday
as the mid-level ridge shifts to the south and west. Shortwave
ripples in this flow will allow for the development of showers and
storms to our north with the subsequent surface trough progged to
span from eastern Colorado into northeast Nebraska. Following
upscale growth into an MCS, 850 mb convergence along the nose of the
low-level jet will be the primary steering force for the system
heading into the overnight hours. This should keep showers and
storms in northern Kansas and southern Nebraska as they shift to the
east. However, some of the latest guidance highlights the potential
for scattered activity perhaps as far south as the I-70 corridor by
early morning on Tuesday.

Attention then shifts to Tuesday afternoon into the evening as the
surface trough moves into central and northeast Kansas throughout
the day. MLCAPE exceeding 3000 J/kg continues to appear likely out
ahead of the boundary, and with effective shear in the 30-40 kt
range, the environment will initially be conducive to supercells
capable of strong winds, large hail, and heavy rainfall. Activity is
then expected to grow upscale into an MCS heading into the evening
as the system slowly propagates to the east. This slow propagation
alongside outflow touching off additional convection may further
provide flooding concerns overnight into Wednesday morning.

Looking ahead toward the end of the week, mid/upper ridging resumes
and is expected to lead to warm and dry conditions. Long-range
models then hint at the ridge sliding east by the weekend, bringing
southwest flow aloft back to the region and the potential for rain
to start next week.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1039 PM CDT Sun Jun 15 2025

Main aviation concern will remain some fog and low cloud
potential tonight.

Moist southeast flow will remain across the area tonight into
Mon morning. Feel that increasing high clouds may limit fog
potential late tonight. However, still feel some low cloud
potential will remain for southeast KS into the Flint Hills. For
now will only mention some MVFR levels at KCNU after 10z,
however, wouldn`t be shocked if some low cigs make it as far
west of KICT early Mon morning. Storms will likely develop over
southwest Nebraska Mon evening and track southeast through the
overnight hours. They are not expected to affect the area before
06z Tue.

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...JWK
AVIATION...RBL