041
FXUS63 KICT 160743
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
243 AM CDT Wed Jul 16 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Widely scattered afternoon and overnight storms are expected along
  a southward sagging cold front.

- A brief cooldown on Thursday with continued chances for showers
  and storms.

- Becoming hot and humid as we move into the weekend continuing
  into next week!

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 241 AM CDT Wed Jul 16 2025

A complex of showers and storms over Nebraska diving into northeast
KS will send an outflow boundary into central KS but the effective
front is expected to remain north of the area until the early
afternoon hours when it is progged to sink slowly southward
along the I-70 corridor. Another hot day is expected with highs
topping out in the 95-100 degree range.

This front will become a focus for showers and storms, especially
after 3-4 pm along the I-70 corridor. This activity will be fighting
warm mid-lvl temperatures with southward extend possibly limiting
storm coverage as we move into the evening and overnight hours. As
the LLJ develops this evening we may see better coverage along and
north of the frontal boundary but there remains some uncertainty
when it comes to areal coverage of storms.

A moist and uncapped airmass is progged to linger over parts of the
area on Thursday as the frontal boundary meanders across southern
Kansas. There remains some uncertainty in how far south the frontal
boundary surges. Given the capping concerns, a lack of storms could
allow the front to hang further north in southern KS on Thu leading
to better opportunities for deep moist convection on Thursday
afternoon, however more robust coverage of storms tonight could
drive the effective front further south, limiting storms chances on
Thu.

The mid/upper ridge over the Lower Mississippi Valley area is
progged to amplify on Fri while retrograding over the Southern
Plains. This should result in rising heights/increasing thickness
and rising temperatures as we move through the weekend and into
early next week. We continue to see more subtle shortwave troughs
rotating around the subtropical ridge keeping some low pops in the
forecast through the weekend, mostly across portions of our central
KS counties. As we move towards the middle of the week, the pattern
becomes increasingly favorable for excessive heat over the Central
Plains.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1211 AM CDT Wed Jul 16 2025

Currently, a complex of showers and storms is progressing across
Nebraska and far northern Kansas, and much of this activity is
expected to stay north of the I-70 corridor. However, an outflow
boundary is racing southward into portions of central Kansas,
and a wind shift to northerly/northeasterly is expected for a
handful of hours across central Kansas. Winds will gradually
return to southerly by 12Z.

Much of the morning and early afternoon hours will remain quiet
with surface winds around 10 to 15 knots out of the south across
the area.

A cold front will sag into central Kansas late this
afternoon/early this evening, and scattered showers and storms
are forecast to develop along it and likely impact a number of
TAF sites and surrounding locations after 00Z. Strong to
marginally severe storms cannot be ruled out with up to quarter
sized hail and 50-60 knot winds possible. However, there is
still some uncertainty about coverage of storms, so it was
decided to go with PROB30s for KRSL, KGBD, KSLN, and KHUT until
details can be nailed down a bit better. Additionally, northerly
winds will accompany frontal passage with wind speeds around 10
to 15 knots.

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...MWM
AVIATION...JC