653
FXUS63 KICT 191143
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
643 AM CDT Wed Aug 19 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Showers with a few rumbles of thunder will linger across the
  forecast area this morning.

- Brief "cool-down" for today into Thursday with heat returning
  for Friday and especially the weekend.

- Isolated rain and storm chances return for central Kansas on
  Thursday and Friday nights.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 320 AM CDT Wed Aug 19 2026

Currently, a deep trough is located over Hudson Bay in Canada with a
shortwave extending over the Northern Rockies. The ridge axis has
been displaced to the west, now extending over the Intermountain
West. The cold front associated with the larger trough is located
over southern Kansas with northeasterly winds for much of the state
early this morning. A secondary frontal boundary related to the
shortwave extends across Nebraska. Run of the mill rain and storms
in the wake of the first frontal boundary are marching south across
this state this morning. This activity will continue to diminish in
coverage and intensity through the AM hours with just spotty
activity lingering across southern Kansas by early afternoon.
Afternoon highs will top out in the upper 80s and lower 90s for most
in the forecast area today, with locations along the KS/OK border
hovering near 100 degrees.

Isolated rain/storm chances return to the forecast area this evening
into tonight as the shortwave grazes the Central Plains. The
secondary frontal boundary will skim northeastern Kansas and push
into a moderately moist airmass leading to a few diurnally driven
showers and thunderstorms for our central Kansas counties during the
evening hours. As the boundary pushes further south through the
overnight hours and interacts with a strengthening LLJ, additional
rain/storm activity may be possible across far southern and
southeast Kansas around 06Z.

Seasonably warm temperatures will continue behind the front on
Thursday with highs in the lower to middle 90s. Heights will begin
to rise across the Plains on Friday leading to gradually warmer
temperatures for the area. Temperatures will range between the
middle to upper 90s on Friday afternoon. As the forecast area sits
under mid/upper level northwesterly flow on the periphery of the
ridge, small perturbations in the flow may allow isolated convection
to impact northern and far eastern portions of the forecast
area on both Thursday and Friday night. Maintained low (15-20%)
POPs for those time frames, with further refinement necessary as
we draw closer to those periods.

For the second half of the forecast period (Sat-Tue), models
continue to show the ridge building back in over the region from the
west. Trends show warming temperatures for the upcoming weekend and
into next week with highs in the upper 90s to lower 100s. Long term
solutions center the strengthening ridge over the Rockies and Plains
beyond the forecast time frame suggesting another long duration heat
wave may be in store.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 641 AM CDT Wed Aug 19 2026

Showers and general thunderstorms will slowly track south and
east across the region through the morning and early afternoon.
Activity should dissipate between 18-21Z. Winds are
northerly this morning behind the front and will remain so
through the day. Winds will turn northeasterly after 00Z
areawide.

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...AMD
AVIATION...AMD