189
FXUS63 KICT 042020
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
320 PM CDT Thu Jun 4 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Showers and storms will continue into early this evening for
  areas generally along and just east of I-135. Downburst winds,
  very high rainfall rates and small hail will be possible.

- After a break Friday through most of Saturday, shower and
  storm chances will return for Saturday evening through Sunday,
  especially for areas along and especially east of I-135.

- Unseasonably hot temperatures will move-in to the area for
  Tuesday and Wednesday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 320 PM CDT Thu Jun 4 2026

The initial upper impulse that lifted across western KS late last
night is now situated over southeast Nebraska. However,
regional 88d mosaic and vis satellite shows an MCV spinning
just northwest of KRSL.

The most widespread storm activity is currently over northeast KS,
which is closer to the upper support. Storms quickly developed
further south around noon across south central KS. This is in an
area of persistent 850mb moisture transport and is also in an area
of high instability and minimal capping. Current thinking is that
this activity further south should be diurnally driven and we are
expecting it to continue for at least the next few hours. High
rainfall rates, wet microburst winds and small hail will be the
main threats. So once we get into the 8-9pm time frame, most of
the activity will have dissipated over the Flint Hills.

Still looking for a lull in shower/storm activity for Fri with the
forecast area between the departing impulse over the Mid Mississippi
Valley and another one over northeast Mex. By early Sat afternoon,
the upper circulation currently over northeast Mex will be located
over West TX and will continue lifting northeast through Sat night.
This impulse looks to be far enough south to limit shower/storm
chances through most of Sat with precip increasing across southern
KS Sat evening with fairly widespread showers/storms expected for
late Sat night through Sun morning for areas along and especially
east of I-135. Just like last few days, main threat will be heavy
rain and potential flooding along with wet microburst winds.

Bulk of the precip is expected to push east of the forecast area for
Sun night into Mon. To start the work week we are expecting deep
upper troughing from the Pacific Northwest into Central CA and upper
ridging from the Southern Plains into the Gulf Coast region.  The
latest ECMWF tries to track an upper perturbation across northern KS
on Mon while the GFS keeps this feature much further north and keeps
the entire area dry for Mon and Tue. As the upper trough continues
to dig across the western CONUS, there is high confidence that very
warm temps will overspread the Plains with highs approaching 100 for
both Tue and Wed.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1209 PM CDT Thu Jun 4 2026

Cigs trended lower through the morning than forecasted, so have
translated that into the TAFs with this update. Showers and isolated
thunderstorms that tracked across portions of central KS this
morning have generally moved out of the area. As instability
increases and convective inhibition decreases after 18Z, expect
isolated showers and thunderstorms to develop across central KS.
Probabilities remain low, so have continued with PROB30 groups
through around 00Z for most sites. Note that some weak
convection is already initiating along a line from KICT to KSLN
as of 17Z/Thursday.

Convection will generally wane after 00Z, with skies becoming SCT at
mid levels overnight. Diurnal southerly winds increase around
14Z/Friday.

Across southeast KS, including KCNU, low clouds and some
spotty showers are possible (20% chance) after around 09Z through
much of the rest of the period.

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...RBL
AVIATION...