830
FXUS63 KICT 241950
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
250 PM CDT Mon Aug 24 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Strong to severe storms are likely late Tuesday afternoon
  through Tuesday night.

- Slight rain chances are possible Wednesday night and Thursday
  night with the main chances during the overnight hours.

- Near normal to slightly above normal temperatures are expected
  through Friday with triple digit heat likely returning
  Saturday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 245 PM CDT Mon Aug 24 2026

An upper trough is currently over the northeastern CONUS into
portions of the eastern CONUS. Upper ridging continues over the
Plains into the western CONUS, keeping our area in northwesterly
flow aloft. A shortwave trough is sliding across southern
Saskatchewan, pushing a cold front into portions of the Northern
Plains. Widely scattered showers are ongoing in far southeast
KS and eastern Oklahoma where an area of 850-700 mb WAA
continues. As we move into tonight and Tuesday morning, mostly
dry conditions are expected before a slight chance of rain is
possible to clip central KS on Tuesday morning. Better chances
will remain in northwestern and western Kansas. Low temperatures
will drop into the upper 60s to around 70.

For Tuesday, high temperatures will once again rise into the low to
mid 90s across our area. As we move towards late Tuesday afternoon
and night, rain chances will increase as the deeper shortwave trough
moves into the Upper Mississippi Valley, pushing the aforementioned
weak cold front farther south into Nebraska. Additional storm
development is expected off the High Plains and to propagate
east/southeast into Kansas. Strong to severe storms are likely with
this activity given sufficient instability, around 25-30 kts of
effective shear, and decent DCAPE values. The main hazards with the
strongest activity will be damaging wind gusts, hail up to quarter
size, and locally heavy rainfall. Activity may linger into the
overnight hours with chances decreasing towards Wednesday morning.

For Wednesday and Thursday, the upper air pattern will generally
remain unchanged with upper ridging over the western CONUS and the
Rockies, keeping the Plains in northwesterly flow aloft. This will
allow additional embedded shortwaves to eject out into the region,
which will result in slight rain chances both Wednesday and Thursday
night. The better chances will remain off to our west, though there
is a 20% chance for activity to clip our western fringes. For
temperatures, highs are anticipated to be near normal with values in
the upper 80s to lower 90s. Low temperatures are forecast to be in
the mid to upper 60s Wednesday and Thursday night.

For Friday and beyond, the upper ridge axis is progged to shift east
towards the Plains which will result in a warming trend starting
Friday into the weekend. High temperatures are forecast to be in the
90s across the area on Friday before a return to triple digit heat
on Saturday and Sunday. Low temperatures will warm a bit with values
in the low to mid 70s. Mostly dry conditions are expected into the
weekend with the next chance for rain possible on Sunday night into
Monday as a deeper shortwave trough is progged to move into the
Northern Plains.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1231 PM CDT Mon Aug 24 2026

VFR conditions will prevail across the region for the rest of
the daytime and evening hours with light easterly winds. Some
low clouds in MVFR category could try and develop over the area
during the early morning hours. There is low confidence on the
low clouds,therefore we will go with scattered low clouds just
before daybreak at this time.

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...GC
AVIATION...CDJ