622
FXUS63 KICT 181053
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
553 AM CDT Mon Aug 18 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Hot Today and Tuesday, with heat indices around 100 degrees.

- Low rain chances this morning, with better chances beginning
  early Tuesday morning with chances lingering into early Wednesday.

- High temperatures in the upper 80s and low 90s by mid-late week
  with a bigger cooldown over the weekend into early next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 243 AM CDT Mon Aug 18 2025

Water vapor/RAP analysis continue to show the mid/upper ridge over
the central CONUS. This feature will remain the primary influence on
the weather over the next couple of days before a shortwave trough
moving over the Upper Mississippi Valley area helps to break this
feature down.

We could see isolated showers and storms early this morning on the
eastern periphery of a weak LLJ in parts of central and south
central KS but this activity isn`t expected to linger too long
before dissipating as the flow veers and weakens in the 13-14Z
timeframe. With plenty of insolation anticipated today we expect
another hot day with highs in the mid and upper 90s. Widely
scattered showers and storms may return tonight and low pops
were maintained although it remains challenging given such weak
forcing. The mid/upper ridge is progged to retrograde over the
Rockies with weak northwesterly flow developing across the Central
Plains as we move into Tue. A shortwave trough rotating around the
ridge will bring increasing chances for showers and storms on Tue-
Tue night. A frontal boundary will also arrive although low level
mass convergence will keep dewpoints high in the post-frontal
airmass on Tue before some drier air is advected into the area on
Wed resulting in a stable post-frontal regime as we move through the
day. More seasonable air will finally arrive on Wed with most areas
seeing highs around 90.

Thu-Sun...Dry and mild conditions are anticipated Thu-Fri as the
upper ridge axis extends from the Rockies into the Plains. A
vigorous mid/upper trough over Ontario will drive a cold front south
late Friday into early Saturday. Showers and storms may accompany
the front with a surge of cooler Fall-like air in it`s wake. Highs
on Sun-Mon may struggle to climb out of the 70s in some
locations.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 551 AM CDT Mon Aug 18 2025

VFR is expected to prevail over the next 24 hours.

A rogue shower or thunderstorm will be possible this morning and
perhaps we could see a stray storm or two this afternoon and
tonight. Due to low confidence and limited coverage, no mention
was included in area TAFs.

Otherwise, surface winds will remain out of the south between 5
and 12 knots across the area through the TAF period becoming
light and variable tonight at times.


&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...MWM
AVIATION...MWM