215
FXUS63 KICT 300342
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
1042 PM CDT Wed Jul 29 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Isolated showers and storms will continue today, no severe
  weather is expected. Additionally, heat indices may exceed
  105 across southern & southeast Kansas this afternoon.

- Additional periodic storm chances are forecast tonight
  through Friday morning. Thursday night into Friday morning
  appears to be the best chance for storms, with strong to
  marginally severe storms possible.

- Slightly cooler and quieter this weekend into early next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 203 PM CDT Wed Jul 29 2026

Currently, an upper level ridge is centered over the Southern High
Plains. Troughing over the East Coast has kept the ridge (and the
warmest temperatures) slightly further west. A weak shortwave is
slowly moving southeast over Kansas with significant moisture
advection ahead of the wave. PWATs in excess of 2" extend across
much of the forecast area along with MLCAPE values between 1500-2000
J/kg across central Kansas. This environment, combined with the
shortwave, has been conducive for shower and weak thunderstorm
development. This activity will gradually shift eastward through the
afternoon and evening hours, though no severe weather is anticipated
given the lack of shear. The moisture advection and lift has also
lead to a decent cloud shield that has limited our high temperatures
across central and south-central Kansas. Though, with temperatures
in the lower to middle 90s and dewpoints in the 70s, heat index
values across southern Kansas will still manage to reach into the
100-106 degree range. A Heat Advisory remains in effect through 9PM.

For tonight through Friday, as the forecast area continues to sit on
the northeastern edge of the mid/upper ridge, small perturbations in
the flow will lead to repeated rain and storm chances. Diurnal
convection that develops on the High Plains later this afternoon
will travel into central Kansas later tonight into the morning
hours, gradually pushing east into eastern Kansas on Thursday
morning/early afternoon. Due to the overall warm column, severe
weather is not anticipated with this activity. However, when a more
potent shortwave passes across the Northern Plains into the Upper
Midwest on Thursday night, a weak frontal boundary will sweep across
the state. This setup will support more widespread showers and
storms into Friday morning. While severe weather is not widely
anticipated, the synoptic forcing combined with the moderately
unstable environment may support some stronger wind gusts and heavy
rain.

Temperatures through the end of the work week will remain a few
degrees above normal for this time of year as we remain under the
influence of the ridge. For Thursday, highs in the middle to upper
90s will be most likely across central and south-central Kansas
where temperatures will have a chance to rebound behind morning
convection. Eastern Kansas will max out in the lower 90s. Then for
Friday, locations across the northern portion of the forecast area
will begin to see the impacts from the frontal passage as
temperatures will only reach into the upper 80s to lower 90s.
Whereas far southern Kansas will see temperatures in the upper 90s
to around 100 degrees. Peak heat index values will also reach into
the 100-105 degree range for many across the forecast area. We will
continue to not receive much relief during the overnight hours as
lows will only fall into the middle 70s each night.

Then for Saturday through the end of the forecast period, slightly
below normal temperatures are expected this weekend behind the
"cold" front. The ridge will be further shunted to the west and the
forecast area will be under northerly flow. Afternoon highs across
the region look to reach into the upper 80s to lower 90s with
overnight lows falling into the 60s. Heights then look to gradually
increase for early next week with temperatures creeping back into
the lower to middle 90s in response. A much drier airmass will also
filter in along with the more mild temperatures with PWATs around 1"
for this weekend into early next week. This will limit rain chances
and lead to mild RH values in the 30% range, leading to heat indices
much closer to actual air temperature.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1040 PM CDT Wed Jul 29 2026

Isolated to scattered shower and thunderstorm activity is
currently developing near SLN and should gradually expand in
coverage overnight. Coverage is expected to be isolated to
scattered, therefore have opted for VCTS/VCSH mentions at
ICT/HUT/CNU. Shower/storm coverage will diminish shortly after
sunrise with VFR expected for the remainder of the period.
Additional thunderstorms are possible near the end of the period
across central KS.

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...AMD
AVIATION...BRF