580
FXUS63 KICT 161129
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
629 AM CDT Wed Jul 16 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Widely scattered afternoon and overnight storms are expected along
  a southward sagging cold front.

- A brief cooldown on Thursday with continued chances for showers
  and storms.

- Becoming hot and humid as we move into the weekend continuing
  into next week!

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 241 AM CDT Wed Jul 16 2025

A complex of showers and storms over Nebraska diving into northeast
KS will send an outflow boundary into central KS but the effective
front is expected to remain north of the area until the early
afternoon hours when it is progged to sink slowly southward
along the I-70 corridor. Another hot day is expected with highs
topping out in the 95-100 degree range.

This front will become a focus for showers and storms, especially
after 3-4 pm along the I-70 corridor. This activity will be fighting
warm mid-lvl temperatures with southward extend possibly limiting
storm coverage as we move into the evening and overnight hours. As
the LLJ develops this evening we may see better coverage along and
north of the frontal boundary but there remains some uncertainty
when it comes to areal coverage of storms.

A moist and uncapped airmass is progged to linger over parts of the
area on Thursday as the frontal boundary meanders across southern
Kansas. There remains some uncertainty in how far south the frontal
boundary surges. Given the capping concerns, a lack of storms could
allow the front to hang further north in southern KS on Thu leading
to better opportunities for deep moist convection on Thursday
afternoon, however more robust coverage of storms tonight could
drive the effective front further south, limiting storms chances on
Thu.

The mid/upper ridge over the Lower Mississippi Valley area is
progged to amplify on Fri while retrograding over the Southern
Plains. This should result in rising heights/increasing thickness
and rising temperatures as we move through the weekend and into
early next week. We continue to see more subtle shortwave troughs
rotating around the subtropical ridge keeping some low pops in the
forecast through the weekend, mostly across portions of our central
KS counties. As we move towards the middle of the week, the pattern
becomes increasingly favorable for excessive heat over the Central
Plains.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 624 AM CDT Wed Jul 16 2025

A quiet start to the day is expected with VFR and light
southerly winds. A cold front will move slowly southward today
arriving in central KS this afternoon/early evening. Widely
scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop
along this boundary toward 00Z with winds shifting to the
northeast in the wake of the front. The front is expected to
progress slowly southward tonight with probabilities for showers
and storms arriving in south central and southeast KS late
tonight. There is some concern that a strong cap will inhibit
more widespread storm activity tonight. Probabilities for MVFR
cigs will increase in the wake of the front late tonight and
into the early morning hours on Thu.

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...MWM
AVIATION...MWM