316
FXUS63 KICT 172338
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
638 PM CDT Fri Oct 17 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Chances for showers and storms tonight into Saturday morning
  along and east of the Kansas Turnpike. Strong to marginally
  severe storms are possible.

- Turning cooler on Sunday.

- Rollercoaster temperatures and possible rain chances next
  week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 258 PM CDT Fri Oct 17 2025

Early this afternoon, an elongated deep layer trough was stretched
from south-central Canada to northwest Mexico with a couple of
shortwave impulses: one located over the central Rockies/northern
High Plains, and another over the Four Corners. This will eventually
lead to a couple areas of broad ascent as these features progress
northeastward later tonight. Short term CAMs solutions have trended
towards a solution of a couple different areas of scattered
convection: one generally located across the Missouri River Valley,
and another across western/northwestern Oklahoma. In other words, it
appears as through the coverage of storms along the Kansas Turnpike
between the KS/OK state line and Emporia will be lower than in
previous forecasts. With that being said, just enough forcing from
the advancing cold front should be enough to trigger a few showers
and storms later this evening along the Turnpike and across the
Flint Hills. Instability around 1000-1500 J/kg and effective shear
around 35-45 knots should support strong to marginally severe
storms, especially around the time of initial development (between 7-
11pm). A cluster of showers and storms across western and northern
Oklahoma will progress northeast overnight and move into portions of
Flint Hills and southeast Kansas early Saturday morning. While a few
strong storms cannot be ruled out overnight and into Saturday
morning, the lack of instability should limit storm severity in this
time frame.

The primary trough axis will sweep across the region Saturday
morning/early afternoon. Meanwhile, at the surface, the frontal
boundary that creeps across the forecast area today will stall and
start to wash out allowing for warm, moist air to creep back into
portions of southeast Kansas early Saturday afternoon. The timing of
when the shortwave trough traverses over the region will be crucial
in terms of if far southeast Kansas could see another round of more
robust activity early Saturday afternoon. A more progressive trough
would likely keep strong to severe storms well southeast of the
forecast area. However, a slower progression of the trough could
leave the door open for a few strong to marginally severe storms
southeast of a Chanute-Chautauqua line Saturday afternoon.
Meanwhile, the main synoptic cold front will have entered portions
of central Kansas by midday Saturday, and a strong pressure gradient
will support windy conditions with sustained northwest winds around
25 to 30 mph and gusts around 35 to 45 mph, especially along I-70.
By Saturday evening/night, rain chances should be well off to the
east of the forecast area, and the front would sweep across the area
quickly brining much a much drier and cooler airmass.

Sunday will be the first true fall-like day with morning lows
starting off in the upper 30s to mid 40s and afternoon highs in the
upper 60s. With much of the area under the influence of a surface
ridge on Sunday, winds should be relatively light. However, the next
system, forecast to arrive late Monday/early Tuesday, will already
begin influencing the region late on Sunday with pressure falls
occurring across the High Plains, and breezy south/southwest winds
expected late Sunday afternoon into Sunday evening expected across
western and central Kansas. Temperatures quickly rebound on Monday
ahead of another cold front forecast to arrive early on Tuesday.
With the lack of moisture, rain chances are negligent with the
passage of this frontal boundary.

Additional deep layer troughs are set to arrive during the latter
portions of next week continuing a series of frontal passages, and
maybe some rain chances assuming sufficient moisture returns to the
region, and sufficient ascent is present to support showers and
storms.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 638 PM CDT Fri Oct 17 2025

VFR conditions are expected to prevail at all sites over the next 24
hours. We continue to see general model disagreement in the timing
and location of showers and storms along the pre-frontal trough
making its way through the area this evening. As such, decided to
keep PROB30 groups at ICT and CNU tonight into Saturday morning.
However, as models have handled this system poorly so far, popup
showers and storms are possible especially in south central and
southeast KS through 12Z with additional redevelopment possible in
southeast KS after 18Z.

A cold front is expected to make its way through the area late
Saturday morning through the afternoon. Winds behind this boundary
are anticipated to be northwesterly and strong, with sustained
speeds in the 12-20 kt range and gusts up to 35 kts possible
especially in central KS.

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...JC
AVIATION...JWK