827
FXUS63 KICT 011903
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
103 PM CST Sun Nov 1 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Showers and storms could affect central/south central Kansas late
  tonight with a strong storm or two with gusty winds possible.

- Severe storm potential Increasing for Monday afternoon and evening.

- Seasonable temperatures for Wednesday into next weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1258 PM CST Sun Nov 1 2026

Shortwave ridging was impacting the Central and Southern Plains
early today under mostly cloudy conditions. This ridge axis will
continue to translate eastward as we move through the day while a
vigorous mid/upper trough was moving into the Central Great Basin
area. A 100 kt jet evident on 12Z H25 objectively analyzed upper air
maps was situated on the southeast periphery of the mid/upper trough
extending downstream into the Central Rockies. This upper jet is
progged to weaken as it translates eastward over the Central Rockies
tonight while we see a considerable increase in the low-mid level
(H85-H5) flow tonight and Monday as the mid/upper builds into the
Rockies. A strong LLJ will transport moisture northward tonight
supporting convection over the high plains as it propagates eastward
during the predawn hours. Much if not all of this activity is
expected to be elevated or rooted above the robust low level
shear/buoyancy. As we move into the early morning hours (3am-10am),
we could see some pockets of convection but much if not all of
it is expected to be elevated in nature which may limit the
threat for more substantial strong or severe storms. It will be
hard to rule out surface based convection as we move into the
early afternoon hours given unseasonable moisture in the pbl with
dewpoints in the mid 60s as mid-lvl lapse rates begin to
steepen with the approaching mid/upper trough and with the
arrival of more robust large-scale forcing for ascent as the pv
anomaly rotates into SW Kansas. The most likely time for sfc-
based storms appears to arrive after 2-3 PM along an eastward
advancing dryline in the vicinity of US 281 or between Hwy 14
and US 281. We continue to see considerable shear weighted in
the lowest 2 KM with large streamwise vorticity in the
cyclonically curved hodographs on point soundings in south
central KS. If we can manage to see a few breaks in the
elevated convection and introduce any sfc heating, there could
be a window where sfc-based storms capable of damaging winds
and a few tornadoes may materialize in addition to large hail.
The dryline is progged to be more of north to south oriented
while the deep layer shear vectors are oriented southwesterly,
so we could have a window where some discrete supercells are
possible during the afternoon and early evening hours assuming
we get enough heating for some increase in low-lvl buoyancy.
Once again, the key thing will be the timing and amount of
insolation which will determine how unstable the airmass
becomes as we move through the afternoon hours. We eventually
expect to see a line of storms driving eastward into eastern KS
by early evening hours with damaging winds becoming the primary
hazard before exiting by 10-11 PM or shortly thereafter.

Some post-frontal shower activity may linger overnight into Tuesday
while a more stable post-frontal regime builds southward across
the region into Wed. Seasonable temperatures are anticipated
Wed-Thu with highs mostly in the 60s. Another compact and progressive
shortwave trough may arrive across the area late Wed night into
Thu bringing some increasing probabilities for showers.

Shortwave ridging will return to the area on Friday with seasonably
mild temperatures and dry weather conditions anticipated.

As we move into the weekend, a clipper system is progged to dig
across the Northern Plains driving a cold front southward over the
area on Sat with some shower activity possible. We continue to see
some differences in how this system will track leading to low
confidence in precipitation chances while seasonable temperatures
persist across the region.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 1113 AM CST Sun Nov 1 2026

Expecting low clouds to be around for the entire period so kept
MVFR cigs at all locations. A round of storms are expected to
enter the forecast area from west to east in the 6-9Z time
frame. A few of these storms could be on the strong side and
produce gusty winds and perhaps some small hail so will have to
monitor their progression. Winds will be from the southeast and
light at the start of the period but will increase to 20 to 30
knots towards the end.

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...MM
AVIATION...SGS