659
FXUS63 KICT 010540
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
1240 AM CDT Mon Sep 1 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Scattered showers and storms will linger tonight through
  Monday, especially across southeast Kansas. Locally heavy rain
  will be possible at times.

- Isolated strong or severe storms will be possible on Wednesday
  afternoon and Wednesday evening.

- Seasonably cool temperatures will persist through much of the
  upcoming week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 210 PM CDT Sun Aug 31 2025

A subtle shortwave trough over eastern Kansas will drift eastward
this afternoon allowing for some breaks in the clouds and a brief
lull in precipitation. The airmass is progged to remain uncapped
with a moist pbl allowing for quick recovery with some
afternoon/evening redevelopment possible. Another shortwave trough
over eastern Nebraska is progged to drift slowly south and east
tonight through Monday night before arriving over the Middle
Mississippi Valley area on Tuesday. This will result in some
lingering showers across much of the area through Monday evening
before slowly waning late Monday night. Limited insolation and
scattered showers will result in humid but seasonably cool
temperatures with highs in the upper 70s and lower 80s.

Tue-Wed...Mostly dry and seasonably cool conditions are anticipated
Tuesday as we remain within a northwest mid/upper flow regime. A
more robust mid/upper trough digging towards the Great Lakes area
will drive a frontal boundary southward over the Central Plains late
Wednesday. It may arrive too slow to have a big impact on
Wednesday`s high temperatures. A line of showers and
thunderstorms is expected to develop along the frontal boundary
on Wed afternoon with convergence along the front.
Shear/buoyancy profiles support some potential for a few strong
or perhaps severe storms with large hail and damaging winds
possible.

Thu-Sun...A stable post-frontal regime is progged across the area on
Thursday with a continuation of below normal temperatures. Highs are
expected to rise into the lower 70s on Thu while lows fall into the
50s. Another frontal boundary will arrive on Friday reinforcing the
cooler air. Most areas will see highs in the upper 70s on Friday. A
broad mid/upper ridge is progged to translate eastward over the
weekend while a shortwave trough impacts the Southern Plains. Mostly
dry conditions are anticipated at this time with a continuation of
below average temperatures with highs in the 70s/lows in the
50s.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1239 AM CDT Mon Sep 1 2025

Cigs are gradually expected to drop areawide to MVFR/IFR levels in
the predawn hours, with the potential for fog resulting in LIFR in
central KS. Currently thinking widespread VFR will return to the
area by mid-morning, with chances for showers and a few
thunderstorms returning to areas primarily along/east of I-135 after
18Z. Best chances for these will likely reside around CNU, so
decided to introduce in SLN and ICT with PROB30s. Details refining
the timing and duration of these will likely follow in subsequent
forecast cycles.

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...MWM
AVIATION...JWK