259
FXUS63 KICT 171742
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
1242 PM CDT Mon Aug 17 2026

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Cooler temperatures will continue today before a brief warm-
  up on Tuesday followed by near normal temperatures for the
  rest of the week.

- Slight rain chances are possible Tuesday night with better
  rain chances across the area for Wednesday night.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 315 AM CDT Mon Aug 17 2026

Currently, the forecast area sits under upper level zonal flow as an
elongated ridge extends across the southern tier of the CONUS and
broad troughing digs into the northern US. At the surface, a weak
low pressure sits over the Great Lakes with an associated frontal
boundary draped across the Middle Mississippi Valley and over
Oklahoma. Elevated PWATs (1.75-2") linger along and just north of
the boundary across the southern portion of Kansas. Marginal
instability, in conjunction with the moisture and boundary, has lead
to the development of convection across the TX/OK Panhandles during
the overnight hours. Some of this activity may manage to propagate
eastward along the boundary and axis of moisture into south-central
Kansas, but impacts would be minimal as instability and shear are
lacking. For the most part, activity looks to fester along the
boundary over the OK Panhandle and KS/OK border through the early
morning hours before diminishing. Drier air will begin to filter
into the region through the rest of today with widespread highs in
the upper 80s and 90s for the forecast area this afternoon.

Then by Tuesday, the trough across Canada will push southward and
ridging will begin to build back in over the Plains from the west.
We will see temperatures respond accordingly with upper 90s and
lower 100s expected areawide on Tuesday. The widespread heat will be
short-lived as the strengthening trough digs into the Great Lakes
region, dragging an associated frontal boundary through the Northern
Plains and into Nebraska. This feature will lead to rain and storms
impacting northern Kansas and just clipping the forecast area. The
frontal boundary will slowly pass across the state on Wednesday,
leading to quite the temperature difference from north to south.
Locations in central Kansas will see highs on Wednesday in the upper
80s while spots along the KS/OK border will top out in the lower
100s. More widespread chances for rain/storms across the forecast
area develops Wednesday night as another shortwave dips across the
Central Plains into a modestly moist airmass, though severe weather
looks unlikely with this scenario.

Seasonably mild temperatures behind the front, along with a drier
air mass, are then expected for Thu/Fri. For the tail end of the
forecast period, models are suggesting we may see the ridge try to
build back in over the region from the west. Currently maintaining
seasonably warm temperatures for the upcoming weekend with highs in
the mid-upper 90s, but this trend could lead to more widespread heat
moving into next week.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1237 PM CDT Mon Aug 17 2026

VFR conditions expected to prevail over the next 24 hours.

VFR cigs should gradually exit southern and southeast Kansas
this afternoon, and mostly clear skies should dominate the
region this evening through Tuesday morning. Surface winds are
generally under 10 knots and variable this afternoon. Winds
should gradually shift to southerly or southeasterly this
evening into tonight, then winds should increase to around 10 to
15 knots Tuesday morning.

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...AMD
AVIATION...JC