584
FXUS63 KICT 082309
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
609 PM CDT Tue Sep 8 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- One more hot day for most of the area before a cold front
  brings some relief starting Thursday and continuing through
  the remainder of the forecast.

- Shower and storm chances will also start to ramp-up Wednesday
  afternoon with chances increasing for Wednesday night into
  Thursday morning.

- Additional storm chances will arrive for Friday night into
  Saturday morning, especially for central and eastern KS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 311 PM CDT Tue Sep 8 2026

Water vapor imagery currently shows some shortwave energy
tracking across southern Manitoba with another circulation
approaching the Northern Rockies. Meanwhile, upper ridging
continues to span from the Southern Rockies through the
Southeast U.S. At the surface, cold front extends from northern
IA, through eastern Nebraska and into northwest KS.

Storms are expected to develop along the front late this
afternoon into the early evening hours. While the bulk of this
activity will stay north of the forecast area there is chance a
couple storms could affect areas along and north of I-70. Main
threat with any storms that develop would be downburst winds,
given decent DCAPE.

Upper impulse over the Northern Rockies will continue tracking
east and will slide across the Northern Plains tonight into Wed
morning. This will allow the front to continue pushing south
and by early Wed afternoon will be near Highway 50. Storms are
forecast to develop along and south of the front Wed afternoon
as it continues to slowly work south. Strong upper jet is
expected to strengthen and sink south across the Mid Mississippi
Valley. This will place much of the area in the right entrance
region, which should help keep activity around Wed evening
through Thu morning, especially across southern KS. We should
see a break in activity for Thu afternoon through the overnight
hours as the shortwave moves into the Ohio Valley.

Northern stream will remain active as some additional upper
energy tracks across southern SK/MB and northern Plains on Fri
into Fri evening. This will allow another front to push through
the Northern/Central Plains. The bulk of the convection during
the day Fri looks to stay north of the forecast area, with both
GFS and ECMWF tracking a complex of storms through central and
eastern KS Fri night into Sat morning. This will likely be the
result of storms developing along the front Fri evening in
southern NE and diving southeast overnight. A more robust
shortwave is then expected to dig into the northern Great Basin
by early Sun morning and may provide some storm chances Sat
night into Sun morning as low level jet ramps-up and moisture
works back north.

As far as temps go, southern half of the area will likely see
another day of 100s on Wed. Even though temps will stay above
normal through the next 7 days, there`s a good chance Wed could
be the last 100 degree day for most of the area.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 604 PM CDT Tue Sep 8 2026

Isolated or widely scattered showers and storms may eventually
build into parts of central KS possibly impacting KRSL this
evening as a slow moving cold front sinks southward. Outflow may
shift winds to the northwest briefly before becoming light and
northerly as we move through the overnight hours. This cold
front is expected to continue to sink southward on Wed with some
hit-or-miss showers/thunderstorms possible through the night.
More widespread activity is expected to develop along this
boundary on Wednesday afternoon after 20Z impacting terminals in
south central and southeast Kansas tomorrow afternoon while
lingering into the overnight hours on Wed. PROB30 was inserted
at KICT and KCNU. Any storm will have the potential to produce
strong downburst winds.

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for KSZ032-033-
047>053.
Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT Wednesday for KSZ067>072-082-083-
091>096-098>100.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...RBL
AVIATION...MWM