025
FXUS63 KICT 142256
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
556 PM CDT Mon Jul 14 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- An isolated afternoon shower or two will remain possible over far
  southeast Kansas through mid-week but most locations will remain
  dry.

- The best opportunity for another round of more widespread showers
  and storms will arrive late Wed into Thu across the area.

- Warmer on Tue-Wed with a brief cooldown followed by rising
  temperatures this coming weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 251 PM CDT Mon Jul 14 2025

Current satellite imagery shows a cu field across approximately the
southeastern quadrant of Kansas. This lines up well with where we
are seeing the highest PWAT values as well as the highest
instability. For today and tomorrow, far southeastern portions of
the forecast area have a non-zero chance for an isolated diurnally
driven shower or thunderstorm, but most across the area are expected
to remain dry. For the next several days, we are going to be in a
fairly zonal pattern with southerly winds the next several days.
This will lead to a gradual warming trend across the area with
temperatures today ranging from the upper 80s into the mid 90s. For
Tuesday and Wednesday, we`ll see temperatures across central and
south-central Kansas in the middle to upper 90s with southeastern
Kansas hanging on to the lower 90s.

On Wednesday into Thursday, a shortwave trough will pass over the
Northern Plains. This trough will drag an associated frontal
boundary across the state leading to a mild cool down for Thursday.
Temperatures on Thursday will fall into the middle to upper 80s for
those in central Kansas with south-central and southeastern Kansas
reaching into the lower 90s. With the front will also come increased
rain chances beginning on Wednesday night. The more significant cool
down along with the better rain chances exist for central Kansas and
further north where the dynamics of the frontal boundary will be
more potent. Overall, significant rainfall amounts are not
anticipated with this system.

The front will stall out over southern Kansas and begin to lift back
north as a warm front on Friday. This will mean temperatures will
quickly warm back above normal. Temperatures on Friday will be near
normal, with highs in the lower to middle 90s. But as the ridge
builds over the Plains, temperatures into the weekend look to reach
into the upper 90s for many locations across the state. With ample
moisture and decent daytime instability, a few isolated diurnally
driven showers/storms are possible Friday and beyond.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 555 PM CDT Mon Jul 14 2025

VFR conditions are expected through much of the period. Patchy
fog is possible at CNU between 08-12Z. Otherwise, south winds
will increase to 08-15 kt with a few gusts near 20 kt at GBD and
RSL.

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...AMD
AVIATION...BRF