901
FXUS63 KICT 151725
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
1225 PM CDT Sun Jun 15 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Widespread showers and storms across southeast KS this morning

- Dry conditions expected today and tonight

- Additional storms possible Monday night and again Tuesday
  afternoon into Tuesday night

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 341 AM CDT Sun Jun 15 2025

As of 3 AM Sunday morning, widespread shower and thunderstorm
activity continues across southeast KS and OK. The KS convection is
largely driven by the development of an MCV on the northern fridge
of the OK MCS. As the MCV drifts east and southeast through the
morning, storm chances will shift east and southeast as well. A
second area of convection develop across far southeast CO/southwest
KS. The best low and midlevel WAA remains across western and central
OK. Therefore, anticipate this cluster to propagate southeastward
and remain west of central/south-central KS.

A large spread in model evolution exists for late tonight into
Monday morning with regards to any potential convection. Most
guidance develops convection across the high Plains within a low-
level upslope regime. The most likely scenario is, convection
develops across portions of eastern CO and propagates within the
greatest low-level theta-e axis. This would steer any MCS from
eastern CO into southwest KS and into OK. As such, have a
predominately dry forecast today and tonight.

Transitioning into Monday and Monday night, the midlevel ridge axis
is forecast to retrograde to the south and southwest, allowing zonal
midlevel flow to return to the Plains. Cyclonic midlevel flow will
overspread the high Plains through the day Monday, allowing for the
deepening a surface trough axis from southeast CO into eastern NE.
Upslope flow on the northern periphery of the surface low in
southeast CO should allow for storm development Monday afternoon
from eastern CO into eastern WY/western NE. This activity is likely
to grow upscale and propagate on the nose of the LLJ. This would
ultimately steer this MCS mainly across northern KS/NE.

The best potential for widespread thunderstorm activity arrives
Tuesday afternoon into Tuesday night. The aforementioned surface
trough axis will sink towards central and northeast KS Tuesday
afternoon. Strong buoyancy is forecast to reside along/ahead of the
trough axis with MLCAPE values exceeding 3000 J/kg. A modestly
veered wind profile will result in effective shear values of 35-40
kt. The combination would support supercell structures, at least
initially, with large hail, damaging winds, and heavy rain all
possible. As the evening progresses, upscale growth into an MCS is
expected with an eastern propagation. The biggest concern may
transition to training convection and flooding with the potential
for backbuilding convection on the trailing outflow boundary as a 40-
50 kt LLJ develops. There remains model spread where this
backbuilding potential develops and it bears watching in the coming
days. Longwave, midlevel ridging will build across the area for the
second half of the week, setting the stage for drier and warmer
conditions.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 1217 PM CDT Sun Jun 15 2025

VFR conditions with light winds are expected for the entire TAF
period for all terminals. Some lower clouds may try and impact
KCNU by 12Z but not confident enough to include so simply
highlighting here. Some shower isolated storm activity is east
of KCNU this afternoon but the entire system continues moving
off to the east so not anticipating any impacts but will have to
monitor in case this activity continues to build westward.

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...BRF
AVIATION...SGS