740
FXUS63 KICT 050820
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
320 AM CDT Fri Jun 5 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Isolated showers and storms possible this afternoon and evening.

- Chances for storms forecast for this weekend through Monday,
  mainly during the afternoon and evening hours each day.

- Hot and humid conditions possible next week along with low
  storm chances.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 312 AM CDT Fri Jun 5 2026

...TODAY AND TONIGHT...

Early this morning, much of the forecast area remains quiet, but a
complex of showers and storms remains just off of our doorstep
across northeast Kansas producing heavy rainfall and flash
flooding. This complex of storms is forecast to move
northeastward into northern Missouri and southern Iowa later
this morning keeping central and southern Kansas main dry during
the morning hours. That being said, an isolated shower or two
cannot be ruled out across the Flint Hills and southeast Kansas
this morning, but impacts will be minimal. Later this afternoon,
a combination of the high PWAT axis (with PWATs over 1.5
inches), a very subtle mid/upper trough lumbering across the
central plains, and robust diurnal heating should be enough for
isolated showers and storms across a large portion of the
forecast area this afternoon and evening. While the NBM was very
modest with rain chances this afternoon, short term guidance
suggests we could see a similar setup to Thursday with handful
of storms (across mainly south-central Kansas and the Flint
Hills) possible. While shear is lacking with effective shear
below 20 knots, 3000-3500 J/kg MLCAPE would support at least a
few strong storms with gusty downburst winds and small hail
possible. Also, during the afternoon and evening hours,
scattered thunderstorms will develop along a subtle baroclinic
zone across the Kansas/Nebraska border. Some of these storms
could sneak their way towards I-70 during the evening and early
nighttime hours. Effective shear around 25 to 30 knots along
with MLCAPE between 3500-4000 J/kg should support organized
convection. Before storm mode becomes messy, a powerful
supercell or two is possible with very large hail and damaging
winds being the main concerns. Most likely, this activity
remains north of the forecast area, but there is a low chance
portions of Russell, Lincoln, and Saline Counties could see a
severe storm this evening into tonight.

...SATURDAY THROUGH NEXT WEEK...

For Saturday, a weak, closed mid/upper low will push northward
out of the southern plains. Deep moisture will overspread the
area, and a few showers are possible. Compared to today, much
weaker lapse rates will significantly limit instability, and
shear will be very weak, especially as the mid/upper trough
moves overhead. Still, deep moisture and ample diurnal heating
will probably be enough for a few weak isolated showers and
storms smattered across the forecast area. The best chances will
be across far southern and southeast Kansas. Additional chances
for showers and storms are possible Saturday night into Sunday
morning across portions of southern and southeast Kansas as mid-
level WAA ramps up across the area. Mid-level lapse rates and
shear appear to be fairly lackluster, so storm intensity is
likely to be limited Saturday night into Sunday morning. Another
round of diurnally driven convection is possible across the
eastern third of Kansas Sunday afternoon supported by the
mid/upper trough axis draped over this region along with higher
PWATs well over 1.5 inches. Meanwhile, a trough slowly moving
over the Rockies and into the northern High Plains will support
scattered thunderstorm development across the High Plains Sunday
afternoon and evening. Some of these storms may try to push
into portions of central Kansas late Sunday night into Monday
morning, but chances for this outcome remain low at this time.
One last round of showers and storms is possible Monday
afternoon and evening across much of Kansas as a shortwave
trough nudges into the central plains. Given the high
uncertainty in this time frame, details about possible storms on
Monday continue to remain a bit fuzzy, but current guidance
suggests the environment would support strong to marginally
severe storms given forecast shear and instability. Low chances
for showers and storms continue through much of next week, but
again, the uncertainty in the forecast remains very high at this
time.

...TEMPERATURE FORECAST...

Temperature-wise, conditions will remain near average for today and
through the weekend due in part to the aforementioned mid/upper
troughs passing over the central plains through Sunday.
However, much warmer conditions will be in store heading into
next week promoted by increasing geopotential heights and warmer
mid-level temperatures from a mid/upper ridge forecast to
develop over the southern plains. Mid to long range guidance
suggests afternoon highs in the mid 90s and lows in the mid to
upper 70s will be possible during the latter half of next week.
With so much moisture remaining across the area, it`s within the
realm of possibility that portions of the forecast area could
see multiple days with heat indices above 105 degrees next week.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1046 PM CDT Thu Jun 4 2026

VFR conditions for all sites tonight. Low cigs expected to
settle over CNU during the early morning hours, lasting through
mid/late morning. Otherwise, scattered clouds and breezy
south/southwesterly winds are expected. Wind gusts will reach
between 20-25 knots for central Kansas sites tonight through the
day Friday and for south-central sites after 16Z on Friday.

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...JC
AVIATION...AMD