179
FXUS63 KICT 291148
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
648 AM CDT Tue Sep 29 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Rainfall chances ramping up today with most of the area
  getting wet. Best chance for heavy rainfall through tonight
  will be over western and central KS.

- Shower and storm chances will remain for Wednesday through
  Wednesday night as potent upper low lifts out across the
  Plains. Best chance for heavy rain looks to be for Wednesday
  night into Thursday morning over mainly eastern Kansas.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 251 AM CDT Tue Sep 29 2026

Currently have an upper low digging across Southern CA with Polo
still down over central Baja. Meanwhile over the Plains,
southwest flow aloft is place. At the surface, a broad area of
high pressure extends from the Great Lakes down through the
Tennessee Valley.

Upper energy, that that is currently situated over NM, will
quickly lift northeast this morning and will be moving out
across the TX Panhandle around sunrise. In response, low level
jet will strengthen and veer allowing 850mb moisture transport
to quickly increase. This will result in some showers and iso
storms to move into south central KS after sunrise and becoming
more widespread after 15z through the afternoon hours. BY 00z
this area of precip will be lifting off to the northeast with
the bulk of the convection tonight focused along the 850mb
trough which will be laid out from eastern Nebraska into western
KS, which will lead to much of the area staying dry overnight.

Powerful upper low will be digging across the Desert Southwest Wed
morning with a strong upper jet max lifting through the TX Panhandle
and into southwest KS. At the same time, what is left of Polo will
be quickly lifting across eastern NM and into eastern CO/sw KS. By
Wed afternoon, there is good model agreement in a sfc low situated
over western KS/eastern CO with a strong jet max and associated
dry slot also nosing into west/central KS. The most widespread
precip during the day Wed looks to be northwest of the sfc low
in the wrap around region and in the warm sector where moisture
transport will be maximized. So where the sfc low ends up being
located will be very important. Currently have a lean to the sfc
low being further west than a few of the models are indicating,
possibly over eastern CO. This would also lead to the dry slot
further west and possibly a wetter scenario for our forecast
area. There also looks to be some sfc based severe storm
potential Wed afternoon/early evening east of the sfc low as a
dryline/sfc trough pushes east. With strong jet, shear will not
be an issue so will be dependent on if we can get some clearing
east of the sfc low. Where this occurs will be highly reliant
on where the sfc low ends up.

A large area of heavy rain will setup on Wed night into Thu
morning as right entrance region of upper jet interacts with
tropical like airmass in place. The most likely area to see the
heavy rain looks to be from northeast TX through eastern OK and
possibly into far eastern KS. System will start to quickly shear
out as it slides east on Thu afternoon into Thu night and what
is left of it by Fri will extend from central MO down into
south central TX with the better rainfall chances southeast of
the remnant upper trough. So by Fri afternoon, most of the
rainfall will be out of our forecast area with precip expected
to remain out through the remainder of the forecast.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 641 AM CDT Tue Sep 29 2026

Main aviation concern will be shower and storm chances.

Showers and isolated storms will move-in from the southwest
later this morning as an initial surge of 850-700mb theta-e
advection moves into the area. By later this afternoon, this
more widespread area of showers and storms will be moving off
into northeast KS. We should then see another area of heavier
showers and storms develop from central KS into sw KS after 00z.
This will mainly affect sites west of I-135 with KRSL-KGBD
possibly seeing some heavy rain through the overnight hours. In
addition, confidence is increasing that at least some MVFR cigs
will accompany the precip tonight.

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flood Watch from this evening through Thursday evening for
KSZ032-033.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...RBL
AVIATION...RBL