778
FXUS63 KICT 221938
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
138 PM CST Sat Nov 22 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Areas of fog possible tonight, especially along and east of I-135.

- Rain chances return Sunday evening through Monday evening.

- Mild temperatures through Monday, then cooler air arrives on
  Tuesday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 138 PM CST Sat Nov 22 2025

Current water vapor imagery and RAP analysis indicate strong
mid/upper flow over the Ohio River Valley with a potent shortwave
situated off the coast of Baja California. At the surface, high
pressure resides over Kansas and Oklahoma as a cold front makes its
way through the Northern Plains.

Clear skies overhead and moist soils from the recent rain will allow
for radiation fog to develop late tonight into Sunday morning,
especially in areas along and east of Interstate 135. Still a little
early to issue a dense fog advisory this afternoon, though short-
term model ensembles highlighting a 50% chance for visibilities
below 1/4SM indicate a need for trends to be monitored heading into
the overnight hours. Otherwise, quiet weather is anticipated to hold
through most of Sunday with afternoon highs reaching the low 60s as
midlevel thicknesses increase ahead of the oncoming system.

The aforementioned shortwave is progged to track eastward and eject
out of the Rockies and into the Central Plains by Sunday
afternoon/evening. Broad synoptic ascent from this feature will
promote the development of rain across the region late Sunday and
lasting through Monday. Short-term models continue to pinpoint
locations to our southeast as having better chances for higher event
totals considering richer column moisture and stronger forcing. As
such, NBM carries the highest chances (30-50%) of total rainfall
exceeding 0.25" in southeast Kansas (primarily southeast of the
Kansas Turnpike), while areas to the west can expect totals up to
0.10" at the most. All told, this appears to be a much lighter rain
event than that of this past week. Thanks to ample cloud cover
limiting insolation, temperatures will be a few degrees cooler
Monday afternoon with values around 60.

Following the departure of this system, seasonably cool air is
anticipated to settle in thanks to a cold front shunted through the
region by a compact shortwave racing across the Northern Plains on
Tuesday. Afternoon highs in the 40s and low 50s are expected through
the end of the week alongside overnight lows in the 20s and 30s.
Additionally, per the prior forecast cycle, gusty northwest winds
are anticipated Tuesday behind the cold front with point soundings
(GFS/Euro) indicating mixing up to a 40-kt jet at 850 mb. As such,
wind gusts may continue to trend higher than the current forecast.

Aside from winds on Tuesday, quiet weather will prevail through the
end of the work week with the return of northwest flow in the
mid/upper levels. A change in the pattern appears possible heading
into the weekend, with consensus in the global suite indicating a
big-time cooldown for the beginning of December. Stay tuned as
further details come into focus.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1015 AM CST Sat Nov 22 2025

Main aviation concern will be fog development early Sunday
morning.

IFR/LIFR cigs continue to stretch across southeast KS and are
slowly pushing southeast. KCNU should see a few more hours of
low cigs before clearing out. Clear skies, light winds and
saturated low levels will likely allow fog to develop early Sun
morning, with areas along and east of the KS Turnpike seeing the
best chance at more than patchy fog. For now will run with 2sm
at KICT-KCNU starting at 11z to get the ball rolling, but
wouldn`t be surprised if they are lowered with later forecasts.
Also inserted some 3-4sm at KHUT-KSLN early Sun morning where
good radiational cooling conditions will also be in place, but
moisture may not be as deep.

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...JWK
AVIATION...RBL