845
FXUS63 KICT 212307
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
607 PM CDT Mon Sep 21 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Mostly dry conditions are expected through Wednesday with rain
  chances increasing Thursday morning through Saturday. Severe
  weather is not anticipated.

- Near normal temperatures are expected through Friday with
  warmer temperatures returning this weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 304 PM CDT Mon Sep 21 2026

An upper shortwave trough is currently sliding across the Central
Plains into the Middle Mississippi Valley. At the surface, expansive
high pressure sits over the Great Lakes and extends into the
Northern Plains. As we move into tonight, drizzle is possible to
develop mainly in northern to central KS where weak CAA is expected
to be. Chances are low (around 15%) with these chances continuing
into Tuesday morning. For Tuesday, cloud cover is expected to
dissipate into the afternoon with high temperatures near normal in
the mid to upper 70s across the area. Mostly dry conditions are
expected for Tuesday into Wednesday as the surface high pressure
expands into the Central Plains. There is another slight chance for
rain mainly in north central KS on Wednesday morning, though most of
the area will remain dry. Highs for Wednesday afternoon are forecast
around 80 across our area.

As we move into late Wednesday night, an upper shortwave trough is
progged to move into the Northern/Central Plains. This will increase
rain chances over western Kansas Thursday morning with activity
anticipated to move east into our area during the day Thursday as
southerly flow advects better moisture into Kansas. Showers and weak
thunderstorms are forecast with this activity as most guidance keeps
instability values under 500 J/kg with weak wind shear. Periodic
rain chances are possible from Thursday night through Saturday as
additional shortwaves eject out from the Rockies and slide across
the region. Warmer temperatures are progged to return this weekend
as above normal 850 mb temperatures are expected. High temperatures
are forecast to be in the mid to upper 80s for Saturday and
Sunday.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 559 PM CDT Mon Sep 21 2026

Main aviation concerns will be low clouds and some fog early
Tue morning.

Mostly clear skies will remain in place through much of the
evening hours with light northeast winds also remaining. There
is good model agreement that some low clouds and fog will
develop generally after 09z. This will be the result of some
radiational cooling along with persistent upslope flow. Feel
confident enough at this point to run with IFR levels, with
highest confidence for KRSL-KGBD-KHUT. Wouldn`t be surprised if
KICT sees more BR in the 2-4sm range than low clouds, and will
be something to monitor. For now will start to lift low cigs and
fog out in the 16-17z range.

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...GC
AVIATION...RBL