551
FXUS63 KICT 052316
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
616 PM CDT Fri Sep 5 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Decreasing rain chances this afternoon through tonight.

- Mild and dry this weekend.

- Low chances for showers and storms Monday evening through
  Tuesday morning.

- Warm-up expected for the latter half of next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 201 PM CDT Fri Sep 5 2025

     Rest of Today & Tonight...

Subtle WAA around 700mb along with a hint of diffluence aloft is
allowing for a widespread post-frontal showers and storms across
much of the forecast area this afternoon. Instability is fairly
meager, especially north of the Kansas/Oklahoma stateline, so
thunder potential is low through the rest of the afternoon and
evening. Sufficient forcing is set to exit later this evening, thus
rain chances should come to a gradual end by tonight. Additionally,
skies will gradually clear during the overnight hours. With light
winds and drier air, lows in the 40s are expected across most of the
area. This will be the first time many locations have seen
temperatures in the 40s since mid/late May.

     Saturday through Thursday...

With a post-frontal airmass set to reside across the region over the
next couple of days, this weekend will be dry and seasonably cool
with highs in the 70s and lows in the 50s each day. A surface ridge
slowly sliding across the region will keep winds relatively light as
well throughout the weekend. In essence, it`ll be a great weekend
for any outdoor plans across the entire forecast area.

Going into Monday, southerly low-level returns to the region in
response to another subtle shortwave trough embedded in weak
northwest flow moving across the Rockies and High Plains. Forcing
for ascent will be subtle, but enough for at least some widely
scattered showers and storms across the central portions of the
state late Monday afternoon through Tuesday morning. Model forecast
soundings suggest storms may be elevated, rooted around 850-700 mb.
This is supported by poor low-level lapse rates, moistening and subtle
WAA in the mid-levels, and fairly decent lapse rates between 2-6 km.
Effective shear around 30-40 knots could support some storm
organization, and a strong storm cannot be ruled out if convection
manages to get going Monday evening. There`s still a few days for
details to be refined, so stay tuned.

After Tuesday morning, much of the mid/long range global models
remain consistent with showing mid/upper building over the southern
and central plains. While not particularly strong, it will be enough
to close the door on additional rain chances for the remainder of
the week along with allowing temperatures to return to near normal
for this time of year. Highs in the mid 80s is about what we would
expect for early/mid September across the area.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 613 PM CDT Fri Sep 5 2025

VFR conditions are expected through much of the period. Rain
showers have ended at RSL/GBD/SLN and will end at HUT by 00Z,
ICT by 01Z, and CNU by 02Z. Winds will remain light and variable
through much of the overnight before becoming southerly but
still below 10 kt. Finally, patchy fog cannot be ruled out
towards dawn Saturday morning but confidence is too low for
inclusion at this time.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Issued at 201 PM CDT Fri Sep 5 2025

     Near Record Lows Tonight...

While record lows are not being explicitly forecast for tonight, a
few locations will be close to daily record lows for September 6.

Wichita --> Forecast: 49, Record: 46 in 2017

Salina  --> Forecast: 47, Record: 44 in 1956

Chanute --> Forecast: 48, Record: 46 in 2011

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...JC
AVIATION...BRF
CLIMATE...JC