708
FXUS63 KICT 170743
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
243 AM CDT Tue Jun 17 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Severe storms likely this morning and again this afternoon/evening

- Storms may linger into the daytime hours Wednesday

- Dry and warm Thursday-Sunday with rain chances returning early
  next week

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 241 AM CDT Tue Jun 17 2025

As of 2 AM Tuesday morning, an intense complex of thunderstorms were
progressing southward from north-central KS. Several reports of 60-
80 mph wind gusts have been observed. This complex is expected
to continue propagating southeastward on the nose of the LLJ and
the area of greatest low-level moisture transport. DCAPE values
exceeding 1000 J/kg will allow the threat for damaging winds to
continue into central/south-central KS.

Transitioning into this afternoon and tonight, the ongoing MCS will
progress southeast and ultimately dissipate. There remains some
uncertainty with the amount of destabilization that will occur this
afternoon. With the very moist boundary layer and surface heating,
it seems plausible that destabilization will occur ahead of the main
surface trough. The latest 00Z runs have shifted southward with the
position of the effective front/outflow boundary. Confidence is
greatest for the redevelopment of surface based instability
generally south of Highway 50. The expectation is for upslope flow
across southern KS into eastern CO will allow for storm development
this afternoon. Rapid upscale growth is expected across eastern
CO/western KS with the forward propagation of an intense MCS across
the southern half of KS. The chief concern with this complex is wind
gusts near 80 mph. An additional area of strong to severe
thunderstorm development is expected along the main synoptic front
near I-70. It`s uncertain whether surface based instability will
recover in time for surface based storms. Should surface based
convection develop after 3-4 PM, all hazards are possible including
large hail, damaging winds, and tornadoes. This frontal zone will be
slow to move southward. Storm motions are likely to parallel the
boundary and will support training of convection. Short range
ensemble guidance suggests additional amounts of 1-3" with locally
higher amounts likely. Given all of the concerns above, have
hoisted a Flood Watch for the entire through midday Wednesday.
Lingering storms are possible across southeast KS Wednesday
morning into Wednesday afternoon.

Longwave, midlevel ridging will build across the area for
the second half of the week, setting the stage for drier and warmer
conditions.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1241 AM CDT Tue Jun 17 2025

The main aviation concern over the next 24 hours is the
potential for multiple rounds of strong to severe thunderstorms.
The first round is currently across north-central KS and slowly
moving east and southeast. Introduced TEMPO groups for reduced
VSBY and gusty winds as the storms arrive. This initial round
should end by mid to late morning. Additional storm development
is expected by mid to late afternoon. These may develop
near/overhead at RSL/SLN/GBD with large hail and damaging winds
possible. As the evening progresses, these will form into a line
of storms are race through the remaining terminals during the
late afternoon and evening. Finally, wind speed and direction
may become VRB in the afternoon along I-70 with the main
frontal zone stalling very near each terminal.

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flood Watch from this afternoon through Wednesday afternoon
for KSZ032-033-047>053-067>072-082-083-091>096-098>100.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...BRF
AVIATION...BRF