240
FXUS63 KICT 151126
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
626 AM CDT Tue Sep 15 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Cold front brings widespread storm chances today, some strong
  to marginally severe storms are possible along with localized
  flooding from heavy rainfall.

- A very warm and humid airmass will support heat indices at or
  above 105 across southeast Kansas this afternoon.

- Another cold front this weekend is currently forecast to bring
  a much more dramatic cool down along with chances for showers
  and storms.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 347 AM CDT Tue Sep 15 2026

     TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY

Early this morning, upper air analysis shows a sharp, potent
shortwave trough exiting the Upper Midwest with southwesterly flow
left in it`s wake. A weak upper wave was noted across the southern
Rockies embedded within this southwesterly flow aloft slowly
progressing northeastward. At the surface, a sharp cold front
is located over southern Nebraska and far northern Kansas
lumbering its way southward. Both of the aforementioned
features will be the catalyst for scattered showers and storms
later today and tonight across much forecast area.

A few showers are occurring across northern and central Kansas early
this morning thanks to strong mid-level WAA overspreading these
areas. As the LLJ weakens later this morning, WAA will wane, but
surface convergence will increase as low-level CAA ramps up and
begins to push the cold front southward. During this, widely
scattered showers and storms are possible across portions of
central Kansas this morning into early this afternoon.
Eventually, the surface front will sag its way to within
vicinity of the Kansas Turnpike by this afternoon. While the
front is sinking southward, strong diurnal heating is
anticipated ahead of it, and the front is likely to interact
with a very unstable airmass. MLCAPE around 1500-2500 J/kg will
support some strong to marginally severe storms capable of
downbursts producing damaging wind gusts. Some of the latest
short-term guidance shows DCAPE over 1500 J/kg across a large
portion of the area along the cold front. Model soundings back
this up with a classic inverted-v profile indicative of an
environment favorable for microbursts. The main limiting factor
to the intensity of storms today will be the lack of shear.
Effective shear will be in the neighborhood of 20-25 knots, so
storm lifetimes will be short, likely producing one or two
strong downbursts before weakening/dissipating. In addition to
the possibility of damaging wind gusts today, PWATs in the
neighborhood of 1.7-1.9 inches will support heavy rainfall.
Storms are expected to train along the cold front today into
tonight, and multiple bouts of very heavy rainfall could lead to
localized flooding in some locations, even with (somewhat) dry
antecedent conditions. The cold front begins to wash out by
tonight, and the main focus for thunderstorm activity will
transition to the mid-level baroclinic zone which will be placed
in the vicinity of I-70 after dark. As forcing for ascent
gradually moves northward, so will storm chances late tonight
through Wednesday morning.

Unfortunately, this cold front will not bring a cool down for most
locations across the forecast area, and for those who do see it
(locations along the I-70 corridor), it will only be temporary as
warmer air surges northward on Wednesday. Supported by a
strengthening mid/upper ridge, afternoon highs will rise to the mid
to upper 90s across southern and eastern Kansas while portions of
central Kansas rise into the mid to upper 80s. Warmer temperatures
spread even further north with mid to upper 90s overspreading
all of the forecast area Thursday afternoon as the
aforementioned mid/upper ridge continues to strengthen over
portions of the central plains.

     FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY

The mid/upper ridge responsible for the mid-week heat will weaken
rather quickly as it get squeezed between a retrograding upper low
over the Gulf coastline and the region`s next system arriving
out from over the western CONUS. Still, it won`t weaken enough
to prevent one last very warm day across the region on Friday with
highs in the mid to upper 90s. At this time, a cold front is
forecast to arrive by Friday night, and will slowly lumber its
way across the area throughout the weekend. Currently, mid/long-
range guidance seems to be much more confident that this will
bring some much more fall-like air to the region. However, it`s
still 5-7 days out, so this could be subject to change; though
it should be noted that both the GEFS and ECMWF ensembles show
not that much spread in temperatures in this time frame. In
addition to the possible cooler temperatures, more chances for
showers and storms are also currently being forecast for this
weekend for most of the forecast area.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 620 AM CDT Tue Sep 15 2026

Expect the next 24 hours to be impactful for aviation interests.

A cold front is sagging into the region and is likely to bring
widespread chances of showers and storms through much of today
and tonight. TAF sites across central Kansas may be under threat
of showers and storms through almost all of the TAF period.
Main concerns will be gusty winds between 40 and 55 knots with
the strongest activity, as well as heavy rainfall causing vis
reductions. The cold front will also bring a dramatic wind shift
with southerly winds around 10-20 knots south of the front, and
northeasterly winds around 15-25 knots north of the front.

Additionally, MVFR to IFR ceilings are expected to build in
behind the frontal boundary as well, mainly impacting central
and south-central Kansas sites later this afternoon through
tonight.

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Heat Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 7 PM CDT this
evening for KSZ096-098>100.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...JC
AVIATION...JC