100
FXUS63 KICT 160731
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
231 AM CDT Thu Oct 16 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Warm above normal temperatures again today along with
  increasing south winds and chances for rain late tonight over
  central Kansas

- Shower/storm chances will increase for Friday night into
  Saturday mainly for locations along east of the Kansas
  Turnpike, a few strong to marginally severe storms are
  possible Friday evening

- Cooler temperatures expected on Sunday and again for Tuesday
  next week

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 222 AM CDT Thu Oct 16 2025

It will be another day of warm above normal temperatures along with
stronger south winds, especially over central Kansas where wind
speeds could get closer to advisory levels. Current water vapor
satellite imagery shows the next weather system centered over Utah
tracking northeast across the Rockies. This system will eject out
into the northern plains today with a cold front pushing southward
from Nebraska into northwest Kansas during the afternoon/evening
hours. Scattered showers/storms will develop along the front over
those areas and gradually shift eastward reaching central Kansas
late tonight. Precipitation chances for late tonight will be on
the lower end and not expecting strong/severe storms. The
frontal boundary will continue it`s slow southward track across
Kansas on Friday with showers/storms developing more so during
the evening and overnight hours. Model trends have increased
instability levels, however mid level lapse rates continue to
look sub optimal which would weaken updraft velocities, and wind
shear alignment favors more linear storm mode. Still enough
ingredients to provide a small risk for a few possible strong
to marginal severe storms Friday night, mainly for locations
along and east of the Kansas Turnpike.

Heading into Saturday precipitation chances will linger over
southeast Kansas until cold front surges east of the area.
Meanwhile much drier air will overspread the region for
Saturday night into Sunday in the wake of Saturday`s system
along with a noticeable cool down for daytime highs on Sunday.
The strong cold front will push the better quality moisture well
south into the Gulf of Mexico on Sunday with surface high
pressure building over eastern Texas. Model guidance continues
to show another healthy upper level system and strong cold front
sweeping across the central plains on Monday/Monday night.
Despite the strong upper wave/cold front, precipitation chances
look to be harder to come by for Kansas this period. Arrival
timing for better quality moisture meeting up with the cold
front will be delayed until the front pushes into Missouri.
Some light precipitation could fall over Nebraska into northern
Kansas due to strong dynamic lift and colder temperatures aloft
associated with the robust upper wave. The main weather change
for Kansas will likely be another cool down for temperatures on
Tuesday.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1223 AM CDT Thu Oct 16 2025

VFR conditions are expected to prevail at all sites through the end
of the period. Southerly winds are forecast to pick up through the
morning hours with sustained speeds in the 14-24 kt range and gusts
in the 25-35 kt range through the afternoon. Guidance continues to
highlight central KS with the strongest speeds, while southeast KS
should largely remain around/below 12 kts.

Short-term models indicate low chances (10-20%) for showers and
isolated storms after 00Z in central KS. As confidence is quite low
in location and timing, decided against a mention for this
cycle.

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...CDJ
AVIATION...JWK