454
FXUS63 KICT 052333
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
633 PM CDT Sat Sep 5 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Above normal temperatures will continue through next week.

- A few showers and thunderstorms are possible on Sunday morning
  in central KS and Sunday afternoon across eastern KS.

- Hints of a pattern change for the second half of next week could
  lead to slightly increased rain chances and slightly cooler
  temperatures.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1240 PM CDT Sat Sep 5 2026

Currently, the ridge axis is shifting back west as the blocking
pattern reemerges with a trough across the Pacific Northwest and a
trough digging into the Northeast CONUS. Heights remain steady over
the region, though, continuing the abnormally warm conditions but
not leading to further warming. At the surface, a weak surface
trough extends across the Central High Plains in the lee of the
Rockies, and a remnant MCV lingers over southwest and central Kansas
from a storm complex last evening. A few clouds will linger over the
region today, but otherwise few impacts are expected with this
feature. There remains a very low probability (less than 10% chance)
that an isolated shower or thunderstorm could initiate with diurnal
heating this afternoon in conjunction with the remnant boundary, but
that appears unlikely. Highs today will once again reach into the
upper 90s and lower 100s areawide. Later this afternoon/evening,
storms are expected to once again form in eastern Colorado and
progress eastward into western Kansas. This activity could creep
into our central Kansas counties by early Sunday morning. Then on
Sunday, a slow moving boundary associated with the trough over the
Northeast US will be draped across the Middle Mississippi Valley. A
few showers and storms could develop along this boundary on Sunday
afternoon and impact our far southeastern Kansas counties into the
evening hours.

The ridge will remain overhead through early week. Aside from the
aforementioned isolated precip chances, we are expected to remain
mostly dry. Temperatures through Tuesday will top out right around
100 degrees for all locations across the forecast area with heat
indices up to 105 degrees. The Heat Advisory remains in effect
through 8PM Tuesday. By Wednesday, the trough currently over the
Pacific Northwest is forecast to become more progressive and begin
to traverse the northern tier of the CONUS. If this model trend
continues, this will act to displace the ridge further south and
east. The associated surface low over the southern Canadian Prairies
would then drag a frontal boundary across the Plains by mid week. If
this solution comes to pass, slightly cooler temperatures and
increased rain chances may be in play for late next week.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 627 PM CDT Sat Sep 5 2026

Isolated storms could affect parts of central Kansas tonight
otherwise the region will remain dry and quiet. VFR conditions
are expected over the next 24hrs with light winds and only some
high clouds floating overhead.

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT Tuesday for KSZ032-033-047>053-
067>072-082-083-091>096-098>100.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...AMD
AVIATION...CDJ