864
FXUS63 KICT 310332
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
1032 PM CDT Thu Jul 30 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Chances for showers and storms return late tonight. Strong to
  marginally severe storms producing 50 to 60 mph wind gusts are
  possible.

- Cooler and quiet this weekend with highs mostly in the 80s on
  Saturday.

- Warming trend expected next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 234 PM CDT Thu Jul 30 2026

Water vapor imagery and RAP analysis this afternoon depict upper
ridging over the Central Plains as the mid-level ridge begins to
break down. The remnants of a few showers and weak thunderstorms
from earlier today continue to track into eastern Kansas, and most
of the forecast area is expected to remain dry through the remainder
of the day.

The latest short-term guidance continues to highlight a deepening
shortwave tracking over the Northern/Central Plains later today into
Friday morning. Showers and storms developing ahead of the
associated cold front will move through a majority of the region
later tonight into Friday morning amid an anomalously-moist airmass
(PWs well above 2 inches). Per the prior discussion, strong to
severe wind gusts are possible considering the abnormal moisture in
place and DCAPE values in excess of 1000 J/kg, though these should
remain isolated owing to sufficient convective inhibition at the
surface. Activity will likely remain organized into the morning
owing to support from the LLJ, but better organization to this point
may be further to our north and east where the main nose of the jet
will reside. Rain chances should come to an end by mid morning as
forcing shifts to the south and east. In the wake of the cold front,
locations in central Kansas will see seasonable highs in the low
90s, while portions of southern and especially southeast Kansas may
see highs in the middle to upper 90s depending on how quickly the
front and associated "cooler" air arrive.

Mid/upper ridging will continue across the Desert Southwest
alongside broad troughing across the eastern CONUS as we head into
the weekend. This pattern will look to keep the forecast area
slightly cooler this weekend with northerly flow aloft and at the
surface throughout the region. As such, highs mostly in the 80s are
forecast on Saturday along with lows in the low to middle 60s
heading into Sunday. This cooldown will be short-lived, however, as
heights and thicknesses begin to increase with the eastward shift of
the mid/upper ridge. As a result, a warming trend is expected
to take place through the work week with widespread highs in the
middle to upper 90s by Tuesday/Wednesday.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1029 PM CDT Thu Jul 30 2026

VFR conditions are expected through much of the period.
Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected late tonight
into Friday morning, especially across northern and eastern KS.
Short term models continue to suggest RSL, SLN, and CNU stand
the greatest potential for a brief period of -TSRA. The timing
of TSRA has been adjusted later at SLN and a TEMPO TSRA has
been added at RSL and CNU. Confidence remains low for the
remaining terminals for convection. Northwesterly winds will
increase during the mid-morning hours Friday to near 15 kts with
gusts near 25 kt before decreasing near 02Z.

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...JWK
AVIATION...BRF