468
FXUS63 KICT 061145
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
645 AM CDT Mon Oct 6 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Showers and storms continue today, tonight, and into Tuesday; best
  chances (30-70%) across central and south-central KS

- Below normal temperatures arrive early next week; warming
  trend for the second half of this week/weekend

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 348 AM CDT Mon Oct 6 2025

As of 345 AM Monday, broad southwesterly midlevel flow remains
across the Plains with ridging across the eastern CONUS and
troughing across the western state. A shortwave trough across
southern Ontario continues to slowly shunt a surface cold front
through the state. At this hour, the front extends from the OK
Panhandle through Great Bend, Salina, Manhattan, northeast from
there. Broad low-level WAA across the frontal zone continues to
produce scattered showers and storms with the bulk of activity post-
frontal. As this frontal zone sags south through the day today,
shower and storm chances (30-70%) will extend south as well. The
best chances will remain across central and south-central KS. This
WAA pattern will remain in-place tonight into Tuesday with continued
chances for showers and storms. Instability will remain 500 J/kg or
less, greatly limiting the potential for any strong or severe
weather. As far as temperatures go, much cooler air is filtering in
behind the front with high temperatures ranging from the upper 50s
and 60s across central KS to the mid 80s across southeast KS (where
dry conditions are expected). Lows tonight will range from the upper
40s across central KS to near 60 across southeast KS.

The frontal zone will exit the area to the southeast late tonight
with post-frontal temperatures impacting the entire forecast area by
Tuesday with highs ranging from the mid-60s across central KS to the
lower 70s across southeast KS. Surface ridging will settle into the
area by mid-week with seasonable temperatures and light winds.
Midlevel ridging will build across the central/southern Plains for
the second half of the week and next weekend, which will likely
result in a warming trends with temperatures nearing 80 degrees once
again.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 639 AM CDT Mon Oct 6 2025

A strong cold front is slowly progressing across the region and
has moved through RSL/GBD/SLN as of 1130Z. MVFR to IFR CIGS have
been observed behind the front. Scattered showers and storms
have been persistent along the front and continue to impact SLN
and HUT currently. The front and SHRA/TSRA will impact ICT
around 15Z. A break in -SHRA/TSRA is likely late this afternoon
into the evening with the possibility for -BR/DZ. This will be
short-lived as another of -SHRA/TSRA is expected late this
evening into the morning hours of Tuesday. Exact timing will
likely need to be refined throughout the day but the most-likely
time periods have been outlined with this issuance.

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...BRF
AVIATION...BRF