222
FXUS63 KICT 202352
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
652 PM CDT Sun Sep 20 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A few strong storms are possible in southeast KS this afternoon.

- Seasonable and dry weather conditions are expected  Monday through
  Wednesday.

- Increasing probabilities for showers/storms late Wednesday
  night into the upcoming weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 214 PM CDT Sun Sep 20 2026

A cold front was bisecting southeast Kansas this morning with a
considerable amount of post-frontal stratus impacting much of
northern and portions of central Kansas. This is expected to keep
temperatures in the 70s for most areas behind the front with some
modest low level caa. Meanwhile, some breaks in the clouds will
allow highs to climb to near 90 in the far southeast corner of KS
early in the period with steady or falling temperatures anticipated.
Some showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop in the
buoyant and weakly capped airmass along and ahead of the front this
afternoon while the focus gradually shifts south and east of the
area as we move into the evening and overnight hours. A moist
upslope flow regime over the Central High Plains is expected to
result in a complex of showers and storms developing this evening.
This activity is expected to drift south and east across western
Kansas possibly clipping our central KS counties during the
overnight hours before diminishing, although higher probabilities
are expected to remain further west.

Mon-Wed...A stable post-frontal regime is anticipated through the
period with light northeast winds. The mid/upper ridge is progged to
build over the stable shallow airmass with minimal impacts to
sensible weather. Highs are expected to range from 75-80 through the
period with lows mostly in the 50s, which is near climate normals
for late Sep.

By Wed night, we may see some increase in shower activity as rich
moisture wraps around the mid/upper ridge centered over the lower
Mississippi Valley area. PWATs are progged to rise above 1.5" as
more subtle features rotate around this feature. This moist plume is
progged to remain across the Central and Southern Plains into the
upcoming weekend with multiple opportunities for beneficial rainfall
through the period. Temperatures are expected to moderate by this
weekend with above average values returning to the area Sat-Sun. The
threat for a few strong or severe storms may be hard to rule out
over the upcoming weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 636 PM CDT Sun Sep 20 2026

Main aviation concern will be low clouds overnight into Monday.

Cold front currently stretches from northeast OK into the TX
Panhandle. Widespread MVFR cigs are in place across all of
central KS and current thinking is that they will stick around
through Mon morning. The southern extent will be in question but
did feel confident enough to keep MVFR levels in at Wichita.
Will keep them in through around 17z but it`s not out of the
question they could linger longer.

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...MWM
AVIATION...RBL