045
FXUS63 KICT 131111
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
611 AM CDT Sun Sep 13 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Lingering showers and storms this morning could produce gusty
  winds and heavy rainfall. Localized flooding is possible.

- Heat makes a brief return today and Monday with heat indices
  above 100 possible each afternoon.

- A cold front slowly arrives Monday night, and will linger
  across the area for much of this week. Several rounds of
  showers and storms are forecast for this week with strong to
  marginally severe storms and localized flooding possible.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 301 AM CDT Sun Sep 13 2026

     TODAY THROUGH MONDAY EVENING

Early this morning, numerous showers and storms continue to
linger across portions of central, eastern, and southeast Kansas
thanks to persistent mid-level WAA overspreading the area.
While a couple of storms were able to produce strong wind gusts
earlier, it seems as though the potential for severe wind gusts
has significantly decreased. The main concern this morning is
the potential for localized flooding from heavy rainfall.
However, the coverage of heavy rainfall is expected to quickly
decrease as we go through the morning hours.

All of this rain and cloud cover will leave behind a residual
boundary that is forecast to be somewhere between the KS/OK border
to along the US-56 corridor this afternoon. While chances are
low, strong diurnal heating could be enough to support an
uncapped environment, and sufficient convergence along this
boundary may be enough to trigger a couple of isolated storms
this afternoon and early evening. This activity will be
primarily diurnally driven, so as convective inhibition builds
towards sunset, storm chances should decrease fairly quickly.
It`s possible any storm that develops could be strong with small
hail and gusty winds given MLCAPE between 2500-3000 J/kg.
However, the intensity will be limited by marginal shear,
generally in the neighborhood of 20 knots. In addition to the
low storm chances, hot conditions will return to portions of the
area, mainly across south-central and southeast Kansas. With
temperatures in the mid to upper 90s, and dewpoints in the 70s,
portions of southern and southeast Kansas could see heat indices
exceed 100 this afternoon.

The hot airmass will expanding across much of the central plains
heading into Monday thanks to potent southerly low level flow out
ahead of a slowly approaching cold front throughout the day. Due to
an expected tight pressure gradient across the area, Monday
could be quite windy with sustained winds around 20 to 30 mph
and gusts between 35 to 45 mph at times. The windiest conditions
will be along and west of I-135 during the afternoon hours.
These hot and windy conditions will contribute to a brief period
of very high grassland fire danger west of I-135 during the
afternoon hours on Monday; though dewpoints in the low 60s and
recent rainfall should mitigate fire weather concerns.

     MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY

Only minimal changes in the forecast have been noted for this
week. As mentioned in previous forecasts, a strong deep layer
trough is forecast to traverse into the central/northern plains
by Monday, and will be the catalyst for the aforementioned cold
front sagging into Kansas by Monday night. Mid-range guidance
continues to suggest the frontal boundary will be draped across
Kansas from northeast to southwest through much of this week.
Several perturbations embedded within zonal flow aloft will
provide the lift necessary for potentially several rounds of
showers and storms this week. Guidance is coming into better
focus with where the potential for heavy rainfall will be, and
it will generally be along and north of I-70 Monday night
through Wednesday where multiple rounds of training
thunderstorms could potentially lead to flooding concerns.
Additionally, mid-range guidance is suggesting environmental
instability and shear may be enough to support a few strong to
marginally severe storms with large hail and damaging winds
being the primary concern.

Minimal adjustments have been made to the temperature forecast.
Afternoon highs across the southern half of Kansas remain on the
warm to hot side of things with afternoon highs in the mid to upper
90s, and afternoon heat indices near or slightly above 100.
Temperatures have been raised slightly for Thursday as mid-range
guidance has trended slower with the cold front pushing across
Kansas. However, cooler temperatures are still forecast to arrive by
this end of the week across the forecast area.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 608 AM CDT Sun Sep 13 2026

Lingering showers and storms continue across areas along and
east of I-135 this morning. Pockets of heavy rainfall could
reduce visibility from time to time. Additionally, MVFR to IFR
ceilings have overspread portions of central Kansas. Ceilings
should improve between 14-16Z this morning, and rain chances
will gradually end from west to east between now and 18Z today.

After 18Z, VFR conditions are expected to prevail. Surface winds
will be generally southeasterly today between 5 and 15 knots.
Late tonight into Monday morning, marginal LLWS is possible
across central Kansas.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 301 AM CDT Sun Sep 13 2026

Unseasonably hot temperatures and gusty southerly winds could
support very high fire danger west of I-135 Monday afternoon.
Southerly winds will be sustained at around 25-30 mph with gusts
around 40-45 mph. That being said, antecedent rainfall and
dewpoints in the low 60s should mitigate fire weather concerns
somewhat.

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...JC
AVIATION...JC
FIRE WEATHER...JC