616
FXUS63 KICT 120354
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
1054 PM CDT Fri Sep 11 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Periodic storm chances are possible from late tonight through
  Sunday morning with potential for severe storms late Saturday
  afternoon into Saturday night.

- Warmer temperatures will continue into early next week with
  heat indices around 100 especially on Sunday and Monday.

- Additional storm chances are possible late Monday night
  through Thursday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 302 PM CDT Fri Sep 11 2026

An upper shortwave trough is moving into the Lower Mississippi
Valley with upper troughing over southern Canada into the Northern
Plains. Zonal flow aloft continues over much of the western CONUS.
At the surface, a low is over South Dakota with a cold front
extending into Wyoming. In our area, breezy southerly winds
continue with highs in the 80s to low 90s. As we move into
tonight, the cold front will push south into Nebraska likely
initiating storms in southern Nebraska. Its possible for this
activity to drift south into Kansas early Saturday morning.
Deterministic models continue to be consistent with this
solution compared to short-term guidance with some CAMs showing
showers across portions of our area. Severe weather is unlikely
with this activity and confidence remains low on storm chances
overnight into Saturday morning.

For Saturday, recent guidance has trended south with the frontal
boundary, likely stalling out along Highway 50. High temperatures
are once again forecast for the upper 80s to the lower 90s. By late
afternoon, diurnal heating will lead to plenty of instability
(greater than 2500 J/kg) developing along and south of the boundary,
making another chance for storms possible late Saturday afternoon
into Saturday night. Severe storms are likely with this activity
with the main hazards being large hail and damaging winds. Steep mid-
level lapse rates combined with 40 kts of effective shear will be
sufficient for producing up to half dollar size hail. Damaging wind
gusts are also possible given steep low-level lapse rates with DCAPE
values over 1300 J/kg. Given cloud bases will be pretty elevated
combined with weak low-level shear, the threat for tornadoes will
stay extremely low. Storm chances may linger into Saturday night and
early Sunday morning as the nocturnal LLJ ramps up. Storm chances
will decrease after Sunday morning as low to mid-level WAA decreases
across the area. Mostly dry conditions are forecast for Sunday
afternoon through Sunday night. Lee surface troughing will increase
resulting in breezy southerly winds across the area. High
temperatures will be in 90s with the warmest readings expected in
south-central KS. Heat indices will be around 100 Sunday afternoon
into the evening.

For Monday and beyond, an upper trough over the northwestern US will
propagate northeast towards the Northern Plains by Monday afternoon.
As this trough continues to slide across the Northern Plains, it
will push a cold front south into Nebraska by Monday afternoon. Lee
troughing will remain in place across Kansas with breezy southerly
winds anticipated. Another hot day is in store for Monday as highs
once again rise into the upper 90s. This cold front will continue to
push south, likely allowing showers and storms to develop along it,
increasing chances for Monday night into Tuesday. By late Tuesday
afternoon, the front will likely make it to central Kansas. This
will result in highs ranging from the 70s in far northern Kansas to
the 90s in far southern Kansas. Following this front, highs are
forecast to return to the 80s and low 90s for Wednesday and
Thursday. Periodic rain chances are possible for beyond Tuesday as
guidance suggests additional shortwaves to slide across the region.
Stay tuned!

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/... Issued at 1050 PM
CDT Fri Sep 11 2026

A line of storms will continue to march southward overnight and
looks to push and outflow boundary southward across Kansas
during the early morning hours on Saturday. This will cause the
winds to flip around to the northeast behind the outflow. There
will be some recovery of the winds switching back to the
southeast across southern Kansas on Saturday which could set the
stage for storms to develop later in the afternoon. We
introduced some prob30 for possible storms affecting KICT and
KCNU taf sites.

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...GC
AVIATION...CDJ