364
FXUS63 KICT 132348
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
548 PM CST Thu Nov 13 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Patchy fog may impact parts of central, south central and
  southeast Kansas tonight into early Friday.

- Continued mild with well above normal temperatures through
  Saturday, followed by a slight cool down Sunday-Monday.

- Low probabilities for showers on Monday, with additional
  chances for showers/storms (30-40 percent) for Wed-Thu.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 223 PM CST Thu Nov 13 2025

Currently, the upper level ridge axis is situated off to our west
over the Rockies with northwest flow overhead. Heights have been
steadily increasing allowing a warming trend over the past few days.
Highs today will reach into the the lower to middle 70s for most. At
the surface, a weak trough extends across western Kansas. Generally
light, southerly winds are expected this afternoon and into the
overnight hours with winds becoming more variable later tonight with
the approach of the surface trough. Ahead of the trough, substantial
moisture will advect over the forecast area with dewpoints rising
into the low to mid 50s. Because of this, we could see patchy
advection fog develop across portions of central and south-central
Kansas between 08-15Z Friday morning.

Going forward through tomorrow and into the weekend, temperatures
will continue to run about 15-20 degrees above normal as upper level
ridging shifts eastward directly overhead. Temperatures for Friday
and Saturday will reach into the lower to middle 70s. A weak, dry
frontal boundary will pass over the area later on Saturday leading
to a slight cool down for Sunday with highs reaching into the middle
to upper 60s. Overnight lows will remain in the 40s and 50s through
this time period. With high pressure primarily dominating the
weather pattern through Sunday, mostly sunny and dry conditions are
expected.

A more active pattern is on tap for the area as we move into next
week. A shortwave trough will eject out of the Southwest and
Southern Rockies and lift over the Central Plains on Monday. This
will bring slightly cooler temperatures to northern portions of the
forecast area as well as a few shower chances for northern and
eastern portions of Kansas. Dry conditions and more seasonable
temperatures (upper 50s to lower 60s) are expected for Tuesday in the
wake of this system. Then, on Wednesday, a deeper trough will begin
to lift out of the Rockies into the Plains states. Ahead of this
feature, moisture will begin to surge northward into the region.
PWATs between 1-1.25" will overspread the area on Wednesday into
Thursday. In response, cloud cover will increase along with precip
chances. While there is plenty of time for this system to shift
course, it`s currently looking like Wednesday and Thursday of next
week could be our next best shot at some rainfall for the area. This
more active pattern will also keep temperatures near normal through
the end of the forecast period.&&

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 525 PM CST Thu Nov 13 2025

Main aviation concern will be fog potential late tonight into
Fri morning.

Low level moisture has been slowly increasing over the last 24
hours with dewpoints now in the low 50s and upper 40s. Clear
skies will remain and a weak surface trough will make its way
into central KS, keeping winds light. This should set the stage
for some radiation fog development, after 09z. At this point
models are fairly inconsistent with fog development, but feel
confident enough at this point to run with 2-3sm at KICT-KHUT-
KSLN starting around 10z. Fog should lift in the 15-16z time
frame on Fri, leaving VFR conditions in place.

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...AMD
AVIATION...RBL