859
FXUS63 KICT 301839
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
139 PM CDT Sat May 30 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Spotty rain/storms linger in eastern Kansas this afternoon.

- Severe storms likely today, developing in south-central Kansas
  this afternoon and progressing east through the evening.

- Isolated severe storms possible Sunday afternoon, mainly east
  of I-135.

- Seasonal temperatures over the next week with highs in the 80s
  to around 90.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 134 PM CDT Sat May 30 2026

Currently, a shortwave trough is situated over the Central Rockies
with a larger trough extending across the Canadian and Northwest US
Pacific Coast. Weak ridging is positioned just to our south across
the Southern Plains. In the mid-levels, WAA continues across the
region and the overnight LLJ is beginning to weaken to our
southwest. At the surface, a low pressure has developed and sits over
the Central High Plains. Sub-severe showers and thunderstorms dot
eastern Kansas. This activity will gradually push east out of
the area over the next few hours.

As we move through this afternoon and evening, the western
trough will lift into the High Plains and the surface low in the
lee of the Rockies will begin to shift further east into
western Kansas, pushing a sharpening dryline from western into
central Kansas during the afternoon into evening hours. Ample
instability (3500-4500 J/kg MLCAPE) and shear of around 30 kts
will make the most of a relatively uncapped environment leading
to widespread strong to severe storms. Storms look to initially
develop along the dryline across central Kansas as a few
discrete cells after 3pm. Because of the weak cap, once we see
convective initiation, we will see a cascade effect of storms
unzipping along a line in central Kansas. Due to the lack of
deep shear, discrete supercellular structure will not be
supported and the convection will evolve into a broken line that
will quickly move east-northeast. Strong winds of 70-80 mph and
large hail up to tennis ball sized would be the primary threats
with the strongest storms, though a brief tornado or two cannot
be ruled out.

As the upper level and lee surface trough slowly move over the High
Plains into Sunday morning, a few widely scattered showers could
linger, especially over northern and eastern portions of the
forecast area through the morning hours. Then for Sunday afternoon,
a dryline will once again develop across central Kansas that could
initiate afternoon and evening convection once again. Confidence
remains low as the ridge to the south begins to build in over the
region, leading to increasing heights and weakening overall ascent
over the region. Decent instability and sufficient shear would
support isolated storms should they manage to develop. Current
guidance indicates development along and east of I-135 with activity
pushing east through the night.

Then for next week, a mid/upper level ridge will continue to build
in over the region with the forecast area remaining just north of
the ridge axis. This will lead to not only increasing temps (middle
80s to lower 90s), but an overall less supportive environment for
more potent convection due to synoptic scale subsidence. However,
due to the positioning of the upper-level flow, and given the
buoyant lower-level airmass, some diurnally driven showers and
storms look to develop each afternoon/evening. Confidence remains
low on exact location and intensity of any convection for Sunday
afternoon through Thursday.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1235 PM CDT Sat May 30 2026

A band of showers and thunderstorms continues to shift to the
northeast across the Flint Hills and southeast Kansas. This
activity may miss CNU to the north and south hence only PROB30s
have been included at this time but the activity could produce
gusty and erratic winds as well as drops in visibility due to
heavy rainfall. Additional showers and thunderstorms are
expected to develop across central and south central Kansas this
afternoon and then spread to the northeast this evening and
impact most of the TAF sites. These storms will be more potent,
with the potential for large hail, damaging downburst winds,
frequent lightning, and heavy rainfall.

Activity should shift east and north of the TAF sites around
sunset although a few lingering showers and thunderstorms may
continue through late tonight. Low clouds and fog will try to
develop early tomorrow morning which could lead to some IFR to
LIFR ceilings and visibility. Confidence on seeing this
activity is highest across central Kansas but may also impact
ICT and HUT as well. VFR conditions will return by late tomorrow
morning to all sites.

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...AMD
AVIATION...WI