104
FXUS63 KICT 172023
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
323 PM CDT Tue Jun 17 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Severe storm and flooding potential through this evening.

- Increasing heat/humidity late week and through the weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 322 PM CDT Tue Jun 17 2025

The main forecast concern is severe thunderstorm and flooding
potential through this evening. Thunderstorm activity is currently
ongoing generally along the Highway 56 corridor within a zone of
strong 850-700mb warm advection and in vicinity of an old outflow
boundary slowing sagging south. In the short-term this activity will
pose a marginally severe hail/wind threat, along with very heavy
rainfall and flooding concerns.

As we head into the late afternoon and evening, we`re watching the
potential for this current activity to gradually sink south-
southeast and possibly strengthen as these storms encounter a more
unstable environment amidst impressive vertical shear for mid-June
standards. The best near-surface based instability and low-level
convergence looks to be near the KS/OK border on south in vicinity
of a stalled frontal zone, which could be the greatest potential for
higher-end severe weather through the evening in the form of very
large hail, damaging winds, and possibly a tornado or two,
especially if an HP supercell or two can manage to develop ahead of
the approaching upscale growth. However, activity currently
approaching from the west-northwest could gradually strengthen as
well as we head into early evening, as instability continues to
increase amidst a favorable shear profile. The primary risks will be
damaging winds and perhaps large hail, although given the impressive
low-level shear north of the frontal zone can`t rule out a tornado
or two, especially if the airmass can become rooted closer to the
boundary layer.

After this first round of thunderstorms pushes through late this
afternoon and early evening, short-term guidance supports another
round of storms coming moving in from the west-northwest early to
mid-evening, with a continued threat for damaging winds and perhaps
some large hail. Thinking the severe threat should exit southeast
Kansas by around midnight.

Additionally, given the rainfall last into early today, along with
multiple rounds through this evening, areas of flash flooding and
river flooding are likely, especially generally along and south of
the Highway 56 corridor.

Quiet weather looks to return Wednesday, with seasonable
temperatures mostly in the 80s. As we head into late week and this
weekend, building upper ridging will support increasing summer heat,
with highs in the 90s to possibly near 100 degrees expected. Given
the wet antecedent conditions, humidity will likely be an issue as
well, increasing the potential for 100-105+ degree heat indices.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1258 PM CDT Tue Jun 17 2025

In the immediate short term, ongoing thunderstorms are the
concern which have focused along a mid level boundary. They have
generally stayed between the TAF sites but could encroach on a
couple which is why tempo groups were utilized. Amendments may
be needed given the ongoing activity.

This is a complicated forecast in trying to determine the
timing and location for the next round for many sites which
could become more surface based. There could be a longer
stretch of time with continued showers and storms. Severe storms
with up to baseball sized hail and wind gusts to 80 mph are
still a possibility, but it depends on the response in the
environment. The best chances are for KHUT and KICT to see
severe storms. Changes are likely to the forecast given
observational trends. Precipitation should shift to the east
tonight into Wednesday morning. Clouds should push east as well
with better flying conditions anticipated for Wednesday.

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flood Watch through Wednesday afternoon for KSZ032-033-047>053-
067>072-082-083-091>096-098>100.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...ADK
AVIATION...VJP