639
FXUS63 KICT 301839
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
139 PM CDT Wed Sep 30 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Scattered thunderstorms expected this afternoon and evening;
  increasing potential for tornadoes

- Widespread rainfall continues tonight with the highest amounts
  across southeast KS

- More widespread shower and thunderstorm activity Thursday, a
  few severe thunderstorms are possible as well

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 138 PM CDT Wed Sep 30 2026

As of 130 PM Wednesday afternoon, a strong midlevel low was located
across west-central NM with widespread diffluence across the state.
The axis of diffluence overlaps with strong low-level WAA producing
widespread rain showers across the northern half of KS. Despite the
lack of convective nature of the ongoing activity, PW values near 2"
are resulting in occasional heavy rainfall. A very pronounced dry
slot and slightly steeper midlevel lapses are advecting into
southwest and south-central KS at the moment. This is transitioning
the dense stratus cloud deck into more partly cloudy conditions. In
addition, temperatures quickly warm into the upper 70s and low 80s
across far southern KS/northern OK resulting in the development of
1000-1500 J/kg of surface based CAPE. This destabilization will
continue to spread north and northeast into south-central and
central throughout the afternoon hours. This destabilization will
overlap with a moderately to strongly sheared environment (effective
shear 40-50 kt). Dissecting the shear profiles reveals long, veering
hodographs with 0-3 km storm relative helicity (SRH) values up to
300 m2/s2. The overlap of these ingredients is increasing confidence
in at least scattered supercell development in the next couple of
hours. The main concern, unfortunately, is tornadoes. The axis of
greatest concern resides along and northwest of the KS Turnpike.
Given the very moist boundary layer, the boundary layer will be slow
to destabilize into the late evening/early overnight hours and may
allow the severe thunderstorm potential to persist into the
overnight hours.

The midlevel low and an associated speed max will eject into the
Plains late tonight into Thursday morning. Strong height falls and
WAA will result in widespread shower and thunderstorm activity,
especially across southeast KS. Antecedent conditions remain quite
dry across southeast KS with the past 14 days rain totals generally
less than 1". As such, deferred on a Flood Watch for southeast KS as
6 hour flash-flood guidance remains between 3-4".

As the midlevel low/trough slides through the area Thursday into
Thursday night, deformation precipitation will progress through the
entire area. Instability will remain in place with upwards of 2000
J/kg of surface based CAPE across portions of central, south-central
and southeast KS. Wind profiles become more unidirectional with
straight hodographs, although effective shear values up to 40 kt a
likely. As such, a few strong to severe thunderstorms are possible
with large hail, damaging winds, and heavy rainfall being the
primary concerns. The Flood Watch remains unchanged since last
night`s expansion with an additional 1-3" expected for most
locations. Isolated higher rainfall amounts are probable. Any
lingering showers and thunderstorms will clear the area Friday
morning as the trough slides east of the area.

For Friday and beyond, midlevel heights will increase as western
CONUS ridge axis builds into the Plains. This should yield drier
conditions but seasonable temperatures in the 70s.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1244 PM CDT Wed Sep 30 2026

Main aviation concerns remain showers and storms over the next 24
hours.

Widespread rain continues to lift across the region early this
afternoon. Bouts of heavier rainfall have been observed thus far to
limit vsbys to 1-2SM or even less. With potential for this expected
to continue, kept general TEMPO groups of IFR/MVFR vsbys at most
sites. Additionally, thunderstorms are expected to develop later
this afternoon into the evening hours. Gusty winds and impacts to
vsbys will be the primary threat with these. Tried to refine the
arrival of TSRA across central and south central KS with this cycle,
though will likely have to AMD as radar trends evolve. Finally, IFR
cigs or even lower may be realized later tonight into Thursday
morning per the latest short-term guidance.

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flood Watch through Thursday evening for KSZ032-033-047>049.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...BRF
AVIATION...JWK