688
FXUS63 KICT 252337
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
637 PM CDT Sun Oct 25 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Above average temperatures are forecast through the upcoming
  week.

- Rain chances possible late this afternoon through Monday in central
  KS with chances increasing in south-central Monday night
  through Tuesday morning.

- Additional rain chances likely late week into next weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 223 PM CDT Sun Oct 25 2026

An upper level trough is currently over the Central Great Basin and
Southwest US with upper ridging over the Middle and Lower
Mississippi Valley and into the Ohio and Tennessee Valley. An upper
low is digging off the coast of the Pacific Northwest. At the
surface, a front extends from the Great Lakes through central Iowa
and into central Kansas. Scattered showers are ongoing in western
Kansas in an area of 850-700mb WAA. This activity will continue to
move north-northeast late this afternoon through tonight, affecting
central KS. Precipitable water values in this airmass are up to
1.25", leading to effective rain showers. Thunderstorms look to be
unlikely as guidance suggests instability values generally under 150
J/kg, though a few claps of thunder cannot be ruled out. Minimal
impacts are expected with up to 0.5 inches possible mainly in
Russell and Barton counties.

By Monday morning, the upper trough over the Central Great Basin
will propagate into the Central Rockies and then into the Central
Plains by late Monday afternoon. This will keep rain chances
possible in central KS from Monday morning through the afternoon
with chances increasing in south-central KS Monday night into
Tuesday morning especially as another weak shortwave trough lifts
north from Texas. Severe weather is not anticipated with any of this
activity given the lack of instability. For temperatures, highs will
continue to be above normal with readings in the lower 70s in
central KS to the upper 70s in southeast KS on Monday afternoon. For
Tuesday afternoon, highs in the lower 70s are expected across the
area.

By mid week, well above normal temperatures will return with highs
in the upper 70s to near 80 from Wednesday to Friday. Lows are
forecast to be in the upper 50s to lower 60s on Wednesday and
Thursday night. Additional rain chances may be possible on Wednesday
night and Thursday night as 700mb WAA persists across the area. Rain
chances will increase areawide on Friday and into the weekend as
another upper wave slides across the region. Stay tuned as we
continue to refine this forecast.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 632 PM CDT Sun Oct 25 2026

Scattered rain showers with cigs above 5000ft will affect
central Kansas this evening along with a weak frontal boundary
sinking slowly southward. Meanwhile VFR conditions will prevail
for south central/southeast Kansas over the next 24hrs with
light south winds.

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...GC
AVIATION...CDJ