650
FXUS63 KICT 300539
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
1139 PM CST Sat Nov 29 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Very cold airmass moving into the area with single digit wind
  chills tonight into Sunday morning with highs on Sunday 15 to
  20 degrees below normal.

- Chances continue to increase for impactful snow on Monday,
  with many locations across central KS likely picking up more
  than an inch.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 228 PM CST Sat Nov 29 2025

Upper impulse is currently tracking across MO and southern IA with
precip moving out of KS. Strong northwest winds are in place across
most of the forecast area as this wave departs with wind speeds
likely being enhanced by breaks in the clouds, allowing for
pockets of better mixing. Some instability snow showers
developed a couple hours ago over southern Nebraska and may
work their way into the area later this afternoon.

Northwest winds will quickly decrease as sunset approaches as the
shortwave rotates through the Mid Mississippi Valley. Still looking
for unseasonably cold air to spill south tonight, providing
single digit wind chills Sun morning and highs on Sun struggling
to make it above freezing. These readings will be 15 to 20
degrees below seasonal highs. On Sun, our next upper impulse
will be digging across the Great Basin and into the Southern
Rockies by Mon morning. This feature will then slide across the
KS/OK border during the day.

Snow will first start early Mon morning across southwest
Nebraska/northwest KS as mid level isentropic lift increases. Snow
will spread east and southeast Mon morning with models consistent
showing some mid level frontogenesis setting up generally along
I-70 with the bulk of omega in the prime snow growth region.
GFS and NAM agree on the higher snow totals further north,
generally along I-70. Meanwhile, the ECMWF has maintained its
further south track and has the higher totals near Highway 50.
NBM snow probs continue the increasing trend with greater than
60% chance for an inch or more for much of central and northeast
KS. Yesterday at this time, these same probs were around 50%.
So confidence continues to increase in an impactful snowfall,
especially for areas north of Highway 50. By late Mon afternoon,
snow will be departing southeast KS and will be out of the
forecast area by early Mon evening.

For Tue into Wed, we are still anticipating a Western CONUS
shortwave to dig across CA and into the Desert Southwest. Meanwhile,
a Polar upper low will migrate across Ontario and will keep below
normal temps in place from the Plains through the Ohio Valley.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 1132 PM CST Sat Nov 29 2025

VFR conditions are expected through this TAF period, except at
CNU where MVFR ceilings continue to linger. There remains a 20%
chance that these lower ceilings may continue through the
overnight hours. Winds will start shifting northeasterly Sunday
morning into the afternoon, then shifting to easterly by Sunday
night.

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...RBL
AVIATION...GC