411
FXUS63 KICT 060814
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
314 AM CDT Sun Sep 6 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- The stretch of hot temperatures will continue through much of
  the next week

- A few showers and thunderstorms are possible this morning
  across central KS and this afternoon across eastern KS

- Additional rain chances return Tuesday night and beyond

- Strong cold front next weekend?


&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 311 AM CDT Sun Sep 6 2026

As of 230 AM Sunday, a highly amplified midlevel ridge across the
central US is flanked by troughs on each coast. A complex of
thunderstorms continues to move across portions of western NE and
within a broad zone of 850-700 mb WAA. As the LLJ veers near dawn
this morning, a few thunderstorms cannot be ruled out across central
KS. Later this afternoon, a weak low-level baroclinic zone across
eastern KS will overlap with a very moist airmass comprised of PW
values up to 2". By mid-afternoon up to 1000 J/kg of MLCAPE will
develop across eastern KS (generally east of I-135). This is likely
to yield at least isolated thunderstorms. Similar to Saturday,
effective shear will remain 20-25 kt, supporting mainly pulse
convection. DCAPE up to 1300 J/kg may support localized downbursts
near 60 mph. A similar scenario may play out Monday afternoon across
eastern KS. In regards to temperatures, with the ridge axis
overhead, afternoon highs near 100 degrees are expected area-wide
through Tuesday. The Heat Advisory remains in effect through Tuesday
evening.

Mid to long range guidance are trending towards an end of the long
stretch of unseasonably hot temperatures. The initial pattern change
begins late Tuesday into Wednesday as a midlevel shortwave trough
ejects across the northern Plains, leaving zonal midlevel flow in
its wake. In addition, a surface cold front will slowly move
across the region Wednesday into Thursday. This frontal passage
should yield increasing rain chances and high temperatures
closer to normal in the low 90s. A secondary surface trough will
develop across the high Plains late Thursday into Friday ahead
of a stronger midlevel shortwave trough. With the return of
southerly low-level flow, temperatures will return to the mid
and upper 90s Friday and Saturday. The aforementioned shortwave
trough is progged to eject into the northern Plains late
Saturday, shunting a strong cold front through the area late
Saturday night into Sunday. This frontal passage may be
accompanied by widespread rainfall as well. Stay tuned.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 1043 PM CDT Sat Sep 5 2026

Good flying weather for next 24hrs with VFR conditions expected
with light southerly winds.

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT Tuesday for KSZ032-033-047>053-
067>072-082-083-091>096-098>100.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...BRF
AVIATION...CDJ