322
FXUS63 KICT 310836
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
236 AM CST Sat Jan 31 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Dangerous wind chills continue this morning, as low as 15
  below zero.

- Snow flurries possible later this afternoon/night, but little
  to no accumulation expected.

- Warming trend begins Sunday with slightly above normal temps
  returning by early next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 231 AM CST Sat Jan 31 2026

Currently, a deep upper-level trough continues to dig across the
eastern CONUS with the trough axis extending across our area. The
upper-level ridge is pushing on shore across the Pacific U.S. At the
surface, an expansive 1044 high is parked over the Central and
Northern Plains and the cold frontal boundary that ushered in our
colder temperatures and snow showers has already pushed into the
Southern Plains and Lower Mississippi Valley. As the surface high
settles over the Plains this morning, temperatures will plummet to
between zero to -5 degrees through the morning hours. A Cold Weather
Advisory remains in effect through 10am this morning areawide as
wind chills between 10-15 below zero are expected.

For the rest of today, temperatures will fail to warm up
significantly and will remain in the upper teens to lower 20s under
the cold, Arctic high. In the upper-levels, another weak
perturbation will dip across the Plains later today/tonight. This
will support another quick shot at some snow flurries during the
afternoon/evening hours mainly across our central Kansas counties.
As the ridge to the west slowly shifts eastward tonight, it will
push the trough, and colder temperatures, east as well. Overnight
low temperatures will only fall a few degrees from afternoon highs
into the middle to lower teens. As the ridge continues to build into
the region on Sunday, a dramatic warmup is expected under mostly
clear skies. Highs will top out in the 40s for locations that still
have a snowpack in south-central and southeastern Kansas, and
temperatures will approach 50 degrees in central Kansas.

For the work week, a much more mild pattern is on tap with upper-
level ridging generally dominating the central portions of the
country. High temperatures on Mon/Tue will reach into the 40s to
around 50 degrees in central Kansas. Ahead of the next trough, as
the surface low develops in the Southern Plains, a few spotty
showers will be possible on Tuesday and Tuesday night. Minimal
impacts are expected at this time and this activity will quickly
shift east as the dry, post-frontal air filters into the area on
Wednesday morning. The weak trough will then swing across the Plains
on Wednesday, settling the cooler air over the region. Highs on
Wednesday will top out just below normal in the upper 30s to lower
40s. But as a stout ridge builds in for the end of the week, we
could see above normal temperatures across the entire forecast area
once again with widespread 50s areawide.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1046 PM CST Fri Jan 30 2026

Breezy northeast winds will continue to subside as high
pressure at the surface builds over the area through Saturday
morning.

A subtle and fast moving system will bring some flurries or
light snow showers to parts of central KS possibly impacting the
KSLN TAF after around 21Z on Saturday. Higher probabilities for
a light dusting are expected to remain further north and east of
the area. Light winds early in the day will become southwest and
breezy as we move into the afternoon hours, highest over central
KS.

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Cold Weather Advisory until 10 AM CST this morning for KSZ032-
033-047>053-067>072-082-083-091>096-098>100.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...AMD
AVIATION...MWM