308
FXUS63 KICT 292248
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
548 PM CDT Fri May 29 2026

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Daily rain and storm chances over the next week

- A few severe thunderstorms are possible this evening and
  again on Saturday afternoon/evening

- Slightly above normal temperatures over the next week with
  highs in the middle 80s to lower 90s

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 213 PM CDT Fri May 29 2026

Currently, the cutoff low is being lifted over the Rockies by a
trough off the Pacific Coast with upper level southwesterly flow
over the Plains. A shortwave trough remains extended across the
Central Plains, leading to cloud cover and a few spotty showers
moving northeast over the area this morning. At the surface, a weak
low pressure is situated over the High Plains. The shortwave and
corresponding surface low will lift a weak frontal boundary/dryline
from the Panhandles into the central portions of the state by this
evening. This will be the focus of potential storm development for
this afternoon/evening. Sufficient instability and decent 0-3km
shear will support a few stronger to marginally severe storms that
will develop initially to our southwest this afternoon and then move
into the forecast area by this evening. Currently have POPs
increasing for our western counties beginning at 00Z. The strongest
storms will be capable of baseline severe threats with 60 mph gusts
and quarter size hail, primarily for our south-central into central
Kansas counties. Activity will remain progressive, and severity will
diminish between 03-06Z, but spotty showers and isolated
thunderstorms will remain possible for much of the area through the
early morning hours.

As we move into Saturday, a few showers and thunderstorms will
linger across eastern Kansas in the morning hours. By Saturday
afternoon, the western trough will push into the High Plains and the
surface low will linger in the lee of the Rockies, pushing a
sharpening dryline from western into central Kansas during the
afternoon into evening hours. Ample instability (3500-4000 J/kg
MLCAPE) and deep shear (30 kts) will make the most of a relatively
uncapped environment leading to another day of potential severe
development. Strong winds and large hail would be the primary
threats with the strongest storms, though a brief tornado or two
cannot be ruled out. Initial discrete cells will merge into a broken
line that will quickly move northeast across the area, with storms
shifting out of the area by 06Z.

As the upper level and lee surface trough slowly move over the High
Plains into Sunday morning, a few widely scattered showers could
linger, especially over northern and eastern portions of the
forecast area through the morning hours. Then for Sunday afternoon
and into early next week, a mid/upper level ridge will begin to
build in over the region. This will lead to not only increasing
temps (upper 80s, lower 90s), but also a less supportive environment
for more potent convection due to subsidence. But given the buoyant
lower-level airmass, some diurnally driven showers and storms could
develop each afternoon/evening. Confidence remains low on exact
location and intensity of any convection for Sunday afternoon
through Thursday.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 547 PM CDT Fri May 29 2026

VFR conditions are largely expected to prevail at all sites through
the end of the period. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are
possible at all sites, particularly in the evening hours prior to
06Z in central and south central KS. Given the hit-or-miss nature of
these, decided to cover with a PROB30 for this cycle and will AMD as
trends in radar and models become available. Appears showers may
linger behind this activity through the overnight hours with a
gradual eastward shift. Otherwise, look for relatively light SE
winds tonight before SSE winds in the 12-15 kt range pick up by mid
morning at most sites.

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...AMD
AVIATION...JWK