457
FXUS63 KICT 021841
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
1241 PM CST Mon Nov 2 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

-  A round of severe storms is expected this afternoon and evening
   as a vigorous storm system emerges from the Rockies.

- A seasonably mild pattern looks to prevail from Wed-Mon with
  some showers possible Wed night into early Thu, mainly
  southern KS.

- Mild and dry as we head into next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1229 PM CST Mon Nov 2 2026

A vigorous mid/upper trough over the Central Rockies was evident on
water vapor imagery late this morning while the mid-lvl speed max
was situated across the Southern High Plains. This strong mid-lvl
flow is progged to nose into southern Kansas in the 21-00Z
timeframe. This is when we will see the sfc low pressure area deepen
over parts of central and southwest KS allowing some backing of the
sfc winds across south central Kansas allowing the dryline to
sharpen. As the cap weakens, scattered to numerous thunderstorms are
expected to develop by around 21Z (possibly earlier) and spread
rapidly north and east across the area. Moisture in the warm sector
is abundant with late morning sfc dewpoints in the mid and upper
60s. The environment remains favorable for supercell formation with
favorable 0-3km CAPE and strong low-lvl shear profiles progged as
we move into the mid and late afternoon hours. Any discrete or semi-
discrete cells in the late afternoon and early evening hours may be
capable of producing a brief tornado before the activity becomes
more linear as we move into the evening hours. Even with a linear
mode as we move into the evening hours, abundant 0-3KM MLCAPE/0-3km
bulk shear would support some brief QLCS tornadoes in addition to
damaging winds and some more marginal hail potential. The line of
storms looks to shift east of southeast Kansas around midnight.

Scattered showers with embedded thunderstorms will remain possible
along the Pacific front in central and parts of south central KS as
it moves slowly eastward through the night. We continue to see steep
mid-lvl lapse rates as the upper low moves across the area which
should keep some embedded thunderstorms in the forecast for central
KS through much of the night. The front will usher in more stable
air as we move into the early morning hours on Tue with
precipitation gradually diminishing from west to east as the upper
low translates ENE away from the area. Highs on Tue are expected to
remain seasonable ranging from the mid to upper 50s where showers
persist (central and northeast KS) to the mid to upper 60s across
far southeast KS.

Shortwave ridging returns on Wed with seasonably mild and tranquil
weather anticipated. Another shortwave trough is progged to arrive
late Wed night into Thu bringing increasing probabilities for
showers, especially across southern KS while seasonably mild
temperatures persist across the area.

Mild and dry weather will return on Friday as another mid/upper
ridge moves across the Central Plains. This will be followed by a
clipper system digging across the Northern Plains and Upper
Mississippi Valley area late on Saturday. This system will drive a
weak cold front south across the area Sat night into Sun but higher
probabilities for showers are expected to remain north and east of
our region. The front will bring gusty winds but minimal impacts to
temperatures with seasonable values anticipated through the weekend.

An extended period of mild weather may arrive as we move into next
week as a mid/upper ridge is progged to impact the central CONUS
bringing above average temperatures and mostly dry weather
conditions.


&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1138 AM CST Mon Nov 2 2026

A line of showers and storms are currently moving through
central Kansas from near ICT to MHK. This activity will slowly
shift east this afternoon with additional development expected
by mid-afternoon farther west. MVFR ceilings and breezy
southerly winds will hold through much of the day at the TAF
sites before clearing late this afternoon and evening as a
dryline shifts through the region which will also weaken the
winds. This dryline will be responsible for another round of storms
developing to the west of ICT this afternoon and early evening.
Any storm will be capable of producing gusty and erratic winds
along with heavy rainfall, frequent lightning, large hail up to
half dollar sized, and tornadoes. Storms will shift east
tonight coming to an end around midnight as the surface low
moves into central Kansas. Behind the cold front that will
eventually shift through the region late tonight, winds will
become northwesterly and MVFR to IFR ceilings will develop in
its wake and persist through the morning hours tomorrow.
Northwest winds will be breezy for most TAF sites tomorrow.

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...MM
AVIATION...WI