193
FXUS63 KICT 240708
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
208 AM CDT Mon Aug 24 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Strong to marginally severe thunderstorms possible
  overnight into this morning, along with locally heavy rain.

- Another chance of thunderstorms late Tuesday through Tuesday night.

- Periodic low chances for thunderstorms Wednesday night, and then
  again Friday night through at least Sunday night.

- Near to slightly above average temperatures the next several days,
  turning solidly above average by the weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 207 AM CDT Mon Aug 24 2026

THUNDERSTORM CHANCES:

EARLY THIS MORNING...Scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop
during the predawn hours and persist into this morning, mainly
along/east of I-135, within a zone of strengthening 850-700mb
warm/moist advection. Adequate elevated instability amidst decent
directional effective shear may support a handful of strong to
marginally severe thunderstorms capable of dime-quarter size hail.
The potential for higher-end severe hail will likely be hampered by
higher cloud bases limiting buoyancy and effective shear.
Additionally, the potential for numerous/training storms may support
locally heavy rainfall and minor flooding concerns. All activity
will likely exit to the southeast by midday.

LATE TUESDAY--TUESDAY NIGHT...A weak cold front approaching from the
northwest should support increasing chances for isolated to
scattered thunderstorms late Tuesday afternoon through Tuesday
night. A seasonable buoyancy/shear combination along with decent
downdraft CAPE may support a few strong to severe thunderstorms,
especially along/northwest of the KS Turnpike.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...Additional shortwave energy dropping south across
the Upper Mississippi Valley may support low thunderstorm chances
getting into central KS Wednesday night, but thinking most of this
activity should remain west-northwest of the forecast area.

FRIDAY NIGHT--SUNDAY NIGHT...The upper ridge should finally start
shifting east from the southwest to the south-central CONUS toward
the weekend, as shortwave energy tracks across the northern CONUS
and southern Canada. This should allow a cold front to slowly
approach from the north, with low thunderstorms chances over mainly
the northern half of KS this weekend.

TEMPERATURES:

With northwest flow aloft persisting across the region, near to
slightly above average temperatures are expected through late week,
with forecast highs mostly in the upper 80s through mid-90s, warmest
over southern Kansas. As we head toward late this week and the
weekend, the stout upper ridge should shift east from the southwest
CONUS to the south-central CONUS, supporting a warming trend over
the weekend into at least early next week. Could be looking at
another round of widespread 100s, although at least dewpoints should
be lower and south-southwest winds on the breezy side.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1207 AM CDT Mon Aug 24 2026

VFR conditions are expected to prevail at all sites through the end
of the period. East/southeast winds are forecast to persist over the
next 24 hours with speeds generally around/below 10 kts.

We continue to see the potential for elevated showers and storms
early this morning, particularly along/east of the Flint Hills.
While a few showers can`t be ruled out at ICT, confidence was too
low for a mention at this time. Confidence in timing of impacts at
CNU remains high, with minimal adjustments to the -TSRA mention from
the 00Z cycle. Rain chances should depart southeast KS by mid
morning.

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...ADK
AVIATION...JWK