159
FXUS63 KICT 181013
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
513 AM CDT Sat Jul 18 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Isolated showers and thunderstorms late this morning through
  the afternoon and again Sunday; no severe weather expected

- Temperatures near 100 degrees are possible Monday-Tuesday
  with heat index values up to 110 degrees, especially across
  southern KS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 146 AM CDT Sat Jul 18 2026

As of 2 AM Saturday morning, an expansive midlevel ridge axis
remains across the central and northern Rockies. This ridge axis
will gradually deamplify and progress eastward today as a shortwave
trough traverses the Pacific Northwest. The overall airmass remains
unchanged from Saturday and should result in another afternoon with
high temperatures in the low to mid 90s. The tropical-like
airmass will result in little, if any mixed-layer inhibition by
late morning/midday. This should allow for isolated shower and
thunderstorm development across eastern KS. The PW axis (up to
2") will remain generally southeast of the KS Turnpike and
should be the location of greatest shower/storm coverage this
afternoon. Showers and thunderstorms will quickly dissipate with
sunset this evening.

The ridge axis will re-amplify across the central/northern
Rockies into the central/southern Plains Sunday-Tuesday. The
overall tropical-like airmass will remain in place through
Sunday afternoon with additional isolated showers and
thunderstorms possible area-wide. SREF/EPS/GEFS mean 850 mb
temperature anomalies are forecast to range from 4-8 C Monday-
Tuesday. This will result in afternoon temperatures approaching
100 degrees. Dew points will remain in the 60s to near 70,
resulting in heat index values around 105 degrees Monday
afternoon with the warmest across southeast KS. A shortwave
trough is progged to dive southeast from the northern Plains
late Monday into Tuesday, shunting a cold front into the area
Tuesday. The exact timing of the front will prove critical to
temperatures Tuesday afternoon. Areas south of the front will
see temperatures approach 100 (heat index values up to 110
degrees), whereas post-frontal areas will see temperatures
remain in the low 90s. The front will clear the entire area by
Wednesday with highs in the low 90s area- wide.

Mid to long range guidance is suggesting northwest
midlevel flow may remain across the central Plains through the
mid to latter portions of next week. This may allow for more-
widespread rain chances to return to the area. Stay tuned.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 509 AM CDT Sat Jul 18 2026

VFR conditions are expected throughout the TAF period. Southerly
winds will remain generally near or below 10 kt. Isolated
showers and thunderstorms are expected from late this morning
through the early evening. Due to the sparse coverage of
showers and thunderstorms, no SHRA or TSRA mention has been
introduced at this time.

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...BRF
AVIATION...BRF