560
FXUS63 KICT 291108
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
608 AM CDT Thu Oct 29 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A few showers and thunderstorms possible this afternoon into
  tonight across central KS

- Widespread rainfall possible Friday into Saturday and again
  early next week

- Near to above normal temperatures expected through early next
  week; cooler temperatures beyond

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 159 AM CDT Thu Oct 29 2026

As of 2 AM Thursday morning, quasi-zonal midlevel flow remains
across the central Plains. Further north, a shortwave trough was was
advancing through southern Ontario with an attendant surface trough
stalled from the OK Panhandle through central KS and northeast from
there. The forecast area has remained storm free so far with the
strongest forcing for ascent remaining across far northeast KS and
northern MO. Midlevel heights will gradually increase through the
daytime hours today as shortwave ridging amplifies ahead of a
western CONUS trough. Despite the increasing midlevel heights, a
weak perturbation currently over northern NM is progged to lift
across the post-frontal region of west-central into central KS this
afternoon and evening. This could support a few showers or
thunderstorms. Steepening lapse rates may yield up to 1000 J/kg of
elevated instability across central KS. Effective shear less than 30
kt should keep any convective disorganized. Otherwise, a notable
temperature gradient is expected to reside on the stalled surface
front this afternoon with highs across central KS in the upper 60s
or lower 70s and areas of south-central and southeast KS near
80.

The next shortwave trough is posed to lift from the Baja region late
tonight into Friday. This should result in widespread rain showers
Friday and even Saturday. SREF/EPS mean rainfall amounts Friday into
Saturday are generally 0.50" or less with the highest amounts along
and west of I-135.

Transitioning into the late Sunday into next timeframe, a strong
midlevel trough is progged to eject into the Plains Monday into
Monday night. Confidence continues to increase for widespread
rainfall beginning late Sunday night or Monday morning and
continuing, at least intermittently, through Tuesday. Additionally,
the pattern, especially Monday afternoon and evening, may support a
severe storm potential and needs to be monitored over the coming
days. Stay tuned.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 604 AM CDT Thu Oct 29 2026

CIGS will gradually lower this morning across central KS with
MVFR conditions expected by mid to late morning. It`s likely the
low clouds will remain at GBD and RSL through the end of the
period. SLN and HUT may have a brief period of MVFR CIGS this
morning, otherwise VFR conditions are expected. A few showers
and thunderstorms are possible across central KS this afternoon
and evening but confidence in coverage remains much too low for
any inclusion at this time. Patchy fog is possible across
central KS near the end of the period and later outlooks will
have to reevaluate that potential.

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...BRB
AVIATION...BRB