991
FXUS63 KICT 231130
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
530 AM CST Sun Nov 23 2025

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Dense fog along and east of the Kansas Turnpike this morning.

- Off-and-on showers this evening through Monday evening.
  Rainfall totals likely remaining under half of an inch.

- A cooler air mass to settle in beginning on Tuesday, and the
  region`s next rain chances forecast to arrive next weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 322 AM CST Sun Nov 23 2025

Water vapor satellite imagery and 500mb upper-air analysis this
morning clearly shows the much advertised vigorous shortwave
trough progressing eastward across the southwestern CONUS.
Closer to home, light winds, damp grounds, and mostly clear
skies are supporting the development of areas of dense fog
mainly along and southeast of the Kansas Turnpike this morning.
Visibilities around a quarter to a half-mile are being reported
at many locations. A dense fog advisory had been issued for
locations along and southeast of the Kansas Turnpike, but
conditions will need to be monitored for the potential of
westward expansion. HREF probs of vis under 1/4 mile later this
morning are around 30-50% along the I-135 corridor. Surface
winds should increase subtly later this morning and will allow
for fog to mix out before noon.

Meanwhile, the aforementioned shortwave trough will eject into the
central plains this evening, and widespread synoptic ascent will
overspread the forecast area and support a swath of showers that
sweeps across the area from west to east. That being said, rainfall
tonight is expected to be light with many locations likely seeing
totals under a tenth of an inch through Monday morning. The primary
shortwave trough will push across the area midday Monday, and a
second round of showers is likely (50-80%) particularly along and
east of the I-135 corridor. Rainfall from this round of showers will
be a tad heavier with HREF probabilities around 30-60% for totals
exceeding A quarter-inch east of the Kansas Turnpike.
Subsidence on the back side of this system will serve to end
rain chances from west to east Monday afternoon and evening.

As fairly stout surface ridge is forecast to slide southward out of
northern plains and will help to tighten the pressure gradient
across the forecast area which will support gusty northwest
winds on Tuesday. Global model soundings continue to show a
deeply mixed boundary layer with 35 to 40 knots at the top of
the boundary layer Tuesday afternoon. Therefore, there is the
potential for wind gusts around 40-45 mph; however, NBM
probabilities only show around a 10% chance for wind gusts
exceeding 40 mph Tuesday afternoon. Regardless, this will
support low-level cold air advection, and a drier and cooler
air mass is expected to settle in across the central plains on
Tuesday and Wednesday and likely lingering through next weekend.

Additionally, there is a growing signal from mid-to-long range
deterministic and ensemble global models of the region`s next
system arriving next weekend bringing another round of rain
chances, and maybe even an outside chance of some snow? This is
still about 6-7 days out, so details will need to be ironed out
over the coming days. Looking beyond the forecast period
(around 8-10 days out), there is a strong signal of arctic air
plunging into the central portions of the CONUS. Again, this is
still quite a ways out, but trends will be monitored as we
approach the beginning of December.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 523 AM CST Sun Nov 23 2025

Widespread dense fog continues along and southeast of the Kansas
Turnpike with vis at or under 1/4 of a mile being reported at
KCNU and surrounding sites. Fog is beginning to spread westward,
but there`s still some uncertainty about how widespread and
dense the fog will be as it continues to spread closer to the
I-135 corridor. Amendments to the current TAFs may be necessary
if low visibility becomes more widespread.

Between 15-18Z later today, conditions should improve as fog
mixes out, and a period of VFR conditions are expected until low
clouds and showers move in from the west after 00Z this evening.
Widespread MVFR to IFR cigs are expected tonight as a swath of
showers moves across the area from west to east. Some areas of
LIFR cigs are possible towards the end of the TAF period Monday
morning.

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM CST this morning for KSZ053-
069>072-093>096-098>100.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...JC
AVIATION...JC