724
FXUS63 KICT 220643
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
143 AM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Periodic chances for off-and-on thunderstorms early this
  morning through next week, especially during the evening,
  night, and morning hours.

- Mostly near to above normal temperatures through at least the
  next 7-10 days.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 140 AM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026

THUNDERSTORM CHANCES:

Per deterministic and ensemble consensus, anomalous high pressure is
expected to remain anchored over the southern to southwest CONUS
through at least next week, sending periodic shortwaves over Mid-
America in a NW flow aloft regime. This type of pattern will support
periodic off-and-on thunderstorm chances through next week, mainly
during the evening-night-morning hours. However, confidence is low
on finer details, namely exactly when/where thunderstorm activity
will track and how widespread it`ll be.

For overnight through this morning, one of those previously
mentioned ripples in the upper flow is expected to approach the
region from the northwest, which should support a gradual uptick in
showers/thunderstorms across central and eastern Kansas, as 800-
600mb warm advection increases. Modest instability combined with
decent directional shear may yield a few strong to severe
thunderstorms capable of dime-quarter size hail and 60 mph winds,
along with locally heavy rainfall. Activity should exit southern to
southeast KS by around early afternoon.

The next chance of showers/thunderstorms looks to arrive later
tonight (Saturday night) through Sunday morning, mainly northwest of
the KS Turnpike, as another ripple in the upper flow approaches from
the northwest. While widespread severe weather isn`t expected, a few
strong to marginally severe storms can`t be ruled out. Additional
thunderstorm chances look to arrive Sunday night through early
Monday, mainly along and east of I-135.

As previously mentioned, these periodic thunderstorm chances look to
persist just about every day through next week, mainly during the
evening-night-morning hours. Seasonable instability combined with
decent directional shear should yield a continued strong to severe
thunderstorm threat, with wind/hail being the primary threats, along
with locally heavy rain.

TEMPERATURES:

With the stout upper ridge remaining anchored within fairly close
proximity to the Kansas region, near to above average temperatures
are expected through at least the next 7-10 days, possibly longer.
Afternoon through early evening heat indices look to be in the 95 to
105 degree range, highest over south-central and southeast KS. The
"coolest" day looks to be Sunday, with highs possibly as cool as the
mid 80s over east-central KS, with 90s further west/south across
central and southern KS.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1233 AM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026

Main aviation concern will be storm chances early this morning.

Area remains in northwest flow aloft with a broad area of upper
diffluence along with mid level warm advection remaining in
place. Storms have developed over northern Nebraska and will
continue to push south overnight with some additional
development also possible ahead of it. This activity should get
into our forecast area in the 10-14z time frame with low
confidence on how widespread they will be or what exact track
they will take. So for now, just ran with Prob30s at all sites
around or shortly after sunrise. Outside of storms, VFR
conditions are anticipated.

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...ADK
AVIATION...RBL