661
FXUS63 KICT 170730
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
230 AM CDT Thu Jul 17 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Scattered showers and storms with cooler conditions today.

- Hot and humid conditions return Friday persisting into next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 225 AM CDT Thu Jul 17 2025

Elevated showers and more widely scattered storms were situated
north of the slow moving cold front early this morning. This
activity will continue to propagate slowly south and east as we
move through the morning hours today becoming more numerous
across southern KS as we move toward the predawn hours.
Meanwhile, the slow moving cold front is progged to become
stationary in northern OK near the state line with plenty of
residual low level moisture lingering. This will result in a
weak cap with showers and storms redeveloping this afternoon
with any attempt at heating. Poor mid-lvl lapse rates/weak deep
layer shear will preclude widespread strong or severe storms
today but we continue to see some support for efficient rainfall
with PWATs over 2 inches and some potential for training cells
across southern KS. Limited insolation and scattered afternoon
showers will result in below normal temperatures today with
highs in the upper 70s to upper 80s in most areas.

There is some support for storms this evening and tonight as
moisture pools along the frontal boundary and a subtle LLJ ramps up.
Some modest pops were maintained in the forecast. As we move into
Friday, the warm front will return north allowing drier air to
advect over the area. With plenty of insolation and breezy south
winds, afternoon highs are expected to climb into the mid 90s,
although parts of south central KS may see upper 90s.

Sat-Wed...The subtropical ridge is progged to amplify and the H7
thermal ridge will overspread eastern KS through the period. This is
expected to result in hot and mostly dry weather conditions through
the period. Flow around the mid/upper ridge may steer subtle
shortwave troughs over the Central High Plains where scattered
storms will be possible through much of the period. Some of this
activity could drift into our central KS counties but most locations
are expected to remain hot and dry through the period.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1233 AM CDT Thu Jul 17 2025

A cold front continues to move slowly southward across south
central and southeast Kansas early this morning. Showers and
more isolated storms were developing north of the boundary. We
are also starting to see more widespread post-frontal stratus
leading to MVFR cigs. South winds around 10-12 knots will become
northeast in the wake of the front in the 10-15 knot range.
Scattered showers and isolated storms are expected to gradually
build southward becoming most numerous prior to 15Z across
southern Kansas while IFR and MVFR cigs linger through much of
the day. Low ceilings may return across the area tonight with
scattered showers and storms also possible.

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...MWM
AVIATION...MWM