802
FXUS63 KICT 110811
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
311 AM CDT Tue Aug 11 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Very hot temperatures will continue through at least Thursday
  with confidence increasing that Friday will also be hot.

- Increased storm chances for Thu and Fri evening, with central
  and especially western KS having the highest chances.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 311 AM CDT Tue Aug 11 2026

Currently have a broad area of upper ridging spanning from the
Four Corners region down through the Lower Mississippi Valley.
At the surface, a diffuse stationary front extends from
northwest KS into eastern Nebraska. Some scattered showers
developed a few hours ago in an area of 850-700mb moisture
transport that maybe aided by what looks to be an MCV tracking
along the KS/NE border.

Scattered showers will continue slowly pushing east early this
morning and should be exiting central KS by around 12z. With
850mb temps warmer and 1000-850mb thicknesses greater than
yesterday, highs today will be similar or even a couple degrees
warmer than they were on Monday. This would bring highs in the
102-106 degree range with heat indices close to or a couple
degrees above these temps. There is decent model agreement in
the cold front stalling out near or just north of I-70 by Wed
afternoon. This may provide enough convergence is get a storm or
two do develop after 21z. The bad news is the front will still
be too far north to provide any relief from hot temps.

Still looking for shortwave troughing to take place Wed into
Wed night from the Pacific Northwest down into Southern CA. This
will deepen lee troughing and increase low level jet Wed night,
aiding in the development of an MCS across Nebraska that will
likely last through Thu morning. There is decent agreement now
between most of the models in outflow pushing through most of
western and north central KS on Thu. This may bring some heat
relief to parts of central KS along with increased chances for
showers and storms, mainly across central KS. Troughing out west
will allow a series of monsoonal impulses to lift across the
Rockies and out into the Plains for Thu night through Fri night
and will result in continued high storm chances from northwest
KS through Nebraska, especially during the overnight hours.
Unfortunately, most of this activity will stay north of the
forecast area. In addition, confidence is increasing that the
very hot temps will remain through Fri and possibly into Sat.
Upper ridging is forecast to push slightly southeast for Sat
night into Sun and may allow some slightly cooler air to work
south for the end of the weekend into the start of the work
week.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1048 PM CDT Mon Aug 10 2026

Breezy southerly winds remain the main aviation concern over the
forecast period. Winds between 10-15 knots are expected
overnight, with winds increasing between 12-15Z with gusts
between 22-26 knots expected for all sites through the daytime
period out of the south-southwest.

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Heat Advisory from noon today to 8 PM CDT this evening for
KSZ032-033-047>053-067>072-082-083-091>096-098>100.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...RBL
AVIATION...AMD