639
FXUS63 KICT 140725
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
225 AM CDT Sat Jun 14 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Storms likely this morning, especially across south-central KS --
  some may become severe with wind gusts near 60 mph and heavy rain

- Additional storms are possible tonight although tremendous
  uncertainty remains

- Storm chances, especially at nighttime, continue into next
  week with the best chances late Tuesday into Wednesday morning

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 223 AM CDT Sat Jun 14 2025

As of 2 AM Saturday morning, broad quasi-zonal midlevel flow remains
across the Plains with the remnant low across the mid-MS
valley. At the surface, an ill-defined surface pattern is in
place with a weak frontal zone stretching from northeast CO
through eastern NE. A second boundary extends down the foothills
of the Rockies into eastern NM. A pseudo-warm front extends
from southwest KS into central OK. A plume of rich moisture
continues to advect northward into southern KS with dew points
in the low to mid 70s. Three areas of convection may impact the
forecast area later this morning. The first is located across
northwest KS and attached to the weak front from northeast CO
into NE. A subtle shortwave trough axis appears to be providing
maintenance for this cluster at this point. A second area is
located across west-central KS and developed along the N/S
boundary. The third and final area is WAA driven convective
development from west- central KS into portions of south-central
KS.

The 00Z HREF seems to have a good handle on the evolution of these 3
convective areas. The west-central KS cluster will continue to
progress eastward with scattered development on the nose of the 850
mb jet. As we approach 7 AM, these two areas of convection may merge
and develop a more-estabilshed cold pool and move southeast. An
overall weakly sheared environment (20-25 kt) will preclude a more-
significant severe weather event. That being said, daily max
PWs (1.8-1.9") and DCAPE values exceeding 1000 J/kg will support
damaging winds near 60 mph and very heavy rainfall. The most
likely zone for receiving damaging wind gusts near 60 mph
extends south of a line from Russell to McPherson to Eureka.
This convection will likely exit the area into OK by early
afternoon. Residual cloud debris will likely hold temperatures
in the low to mid 80s.

The midlevel ridge axis will remain across the southwest US tonight
through Monday with perturbations rounding the ridge and ejecting
into the Plains. There remains a signal for afternoon storm
development across the High Plains Saturday afternoon with upscale
growth and an MCS moving across a portion of the region tonight into
Sunday morning. Given the widespread convection expected through at
least midday, the overnight MCS may remain north of I-70. Short
range trends will need to be monitored throughout the day to
reevaluate this potential.

These challenging forecast scenarios with WAA driven convection will
continue into early next week before a more-synopically driven MCS
progresses across the area late Tuesday into Wednesday. The midlevel
trough responsible for this MCS will move east of the area by
midweek with increasing midlevel heights thereafter. This should
support a drier and warmer pattern for the latter half of next
week.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1222 AM CDT Sat Jun 14 2025

VFR conditions are expected to prevail at all sites through the end
of the period. Primary concern continues to be the potential for
showers and thunderstorms beginning around 04Z this morning and
lasting through the mid/late morning hours before moving into Oklahoma.
Highest confidence is in impacts in central and south central
KS, though some of the latest guidance hints at low chances for
impacts as far east as CNU. As such, decided to introduce a
PROB30 for -TSRA there, with prevailing thunder mentions at all
other sites.

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...BRF
AVIATION...JWK