825
FXUS63 KICT 170953
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
353 AM CST Mon Nov 17 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Continued above normal temperatures through much of this week

- Shower and thunderstorm chances return for the latter portions of
  this week

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 351 AM CST Mon Nov 17 2025

As of 330 AM Monday morning, shortwave midlevel ridging was sliding
across the central Plains in-advance of a compact shortwave trough
across central Rockies. A lee surface trough across the high Plains
continues to deepen with the pressure gradient at 5-7 mb across the
eastern half of KS. Modest WAA is ongoing across much of eastern KS
in response to a 30-35 kt LLJ. Observations across eastern OK reveal
the moisture advection is quite shallow with clouds between 4-
5kft. This is likely to continue to be the trend with very
shallow moisture, likely insufficient for widespread shower
activity. As we transition into the daytime hours today, the
surface pressure gradient is forecast to increase to an
additional mb or 2 this afternoon, resulting in southerly wind
gusts up to 30 mph. The axis of shallow moisture and associated
cloud cover will progress northeast of the forecast area this
afternoon as temperatures surge into the low to mid 70s. Record
highs across the area remain in the upper 70s to near 80,
therefore it seems unlikely any record highs will be broken.

The surface trough axis will slide across the forecast area late
tonight into Tuesday morning, shifting winds from the northwest at
10-20 mph. A decrease in afternoon temperatures is expected as well
with Tuesday`s highs ranging from the low 60s across central KS to
the mid 70s across southeast KS.

Transitioning into the mid and latter portions of next week,
widespread shower and thunderstorm chances continue to increase for
Wednesday through Friday as a slow moving midlevel trough advances
from the southwest US. Latest GFS and ECMWF runs suggest strong low-
level WAA will ensue late Wednesday night into Thursday morning with
dew points approaching 60 and PW values ranging from 1-1.5" with the
highest values across southeast KS. Midlevel lapse rates will
steepen with the approaching southwest US trough. Confidence is
increasing for any substantial instability to remain south of our
forecast area and across OK and TX. Strong midlevel height falls
will overspread the central Plains Thursday into Thursday night,
resulting in widespread rainfall, especially across south-central
and southeast KS. Additional deformation precipitation is likely
Friday into Friday evening as the midlevel level trough slowly
progresses into the MS valley. Temperatures will return to near-
normal late this week with highs in the 50s.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1037 PM CST Sun Nov 16 2025

Some impacts to aviation interests are possible over the next 24
hours.

Currently, VFR conditions are dominating the region, and these
conditions should continue over the next few hours. However,
a band of lower ceilings is forecast to move from south to north
across the area in a few hours, and some TAF sites could
experience a brief period of MVFR cigs later this morning. Low
clouds should exit the area by early this afternoon. There`s a
slight chance of some isolated showers along and east of the
Flint Hills this morning as well, but coverage should be
sparse.

Currently, winds are light and out of the east or southeast and
will slightly shift to southerly or southwesterly over the next
24 hours. Winds should increase this afternoon with gusts
potentially around 20 to 25 knots at times across the area.
Additionally, some marginal low-level wind shear is possible
this morning across portions of central Kansas.

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...BRF
AVIATION...JC