689
FXUS63 KICT 281939
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
239 PM CDT Mon Sep 28 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Widespread rainfall expected late Tuesday afternoon through
  Thursday; highest rainfall amounts expected across portions of
  central KS and southeast KS - Flood Watch for Lincoln/Russell
  counties

- A few severe storms cannot be ruled out Tuesday and Wednesday
  afternoons across portions of central and south-central KS

- Seasonable temperatures over the next week (upper 70s to lower
  80s)

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 221 PM CDT Mon Sep 28 2026

As of 2 PM Monday afternoon, midlevel ridging extends from the
southern Plains through the upper MS valley. A strong midlevel
trough was coming ashore across southern CA with Hurricane Polo
nearing landfall in the central Baja of California. At the surface,
a trough axis continues to deepen across the high Plains with the
approaching western trough. Transitioning into tonight, a 30-40 kt
LLJ will begin to transport a tropical airmass, due in part to
Hurricane Polo, across the entire forecast area as PW near 1.75" by
Tuesday morning. PW values will only increase further (up to 2.1")
by Tuesday afternoon. Increasing diffluence aloft along with the
passage of a speed max across northeast CO/NE will produce
widespread shower and thunderstorm activity by late afternoon with
the greatest chances across central and south-central KS. Forecast
sounding depict MLCAPE up to 1000-1500 J/kg with modestly veered
hodographs yielding around 30 kt of effective shear. As a result, a
few strong or severe thunderstorms cannot be entirely ruled out. The
strongest storms may produce hail up to quarter size and heavy
rainfall.

Showers and thunderstorms will continue into the nighttime hours
Tuesday night into Wednesday morning as strong low/midlevel WAA
overlap with increasing midlevel height falls. The abnormally moist
airmass will continue to support heavy rainfall, especially across
central KS. The main midlevel low will eject into the central Plains
Wednesday afternoon with continued rounds of heavy rainfall as
chances spread eastwards into southeast KS. In fact, the
potential for a few severe storms will increase Wednesday
afternoon across central, south-central, and possibly southeast
KS. A Pacific front/dryline will progress across the area during
the afternoon hours. The prefrontal environment will remain very
moist with near moist adiabatic lapse rates throughout the
column resulting in low instability values (a few hundred J/kg
at most). Shear, on the other hand, will be quite impressive
with long, veering hodographs throughout the profile (~40 kt of
effective shear). Trends will need to be monitored as a low
CAPE/high shear setup may emerge with the potential for low-
topped supercells.

As the midlevel low/trough slides through the area late Thursday
into Thursday night, deformation precipitation will progress through
the entire area. The greatest rain totals are expected to remain
across portions of central and southeast KS. Opted to hoist a Flood
Watch for Lincoln and Russell counties from 7 PM Tuesday through 7
PM Thursday. This particular area was included in the Flood
Watch due to recent rainfall (1-2" over the past week)
overlapping with the greatest potential for additional rainfall
up to 3+". Considered a Flood Watch for southeast KS but a lack
of recent rainfall (generally less than 1" over the last 7
days) decreased confidence in flooding concerns. That being
said, an expansion of the watch is certainly possible with later
forecast issuances.

For Friday and beyond, midlevel heights will increase as western
CONUS ridge axis builds into the Plains. This should yield drier
conditions but seasonable temperatures in the 70s.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1243 PM CDT Mon Sep 28 2026

Low clouds in MVFR category will continue to linger over central
Kansas through mid afternoon otherwise VFR conditions are
expected for all areas over the next 24hrs. Mid-level clouds
will begin to stream overhead beginning late Tuesday afternoon.
Winds will remain light and from the southeast throughout the
24hr period.

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flood Watch from Tuesday evening through Thursday evening for
KSZ032-033.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...BRF
AVIATION...CDJ