084
FXUS63 KICT 211725
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
1125 AM CST Fri Nov 21 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Rain chances gradually waning from south to north today.

- Additional rain chances Sunday night through Monday afternoon.

- Temperatures remaining mild through Monday, then a cold front brings
  cooler weather Tuesday onwards.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 300 AM CST Fri Nov 21 2025

Water vapor satellite imagery and upper air analysis show deep
longwave troughing across much of the western and central CONUS.
This morning, an embedded lobe of vorticity is progressing
across the central plains while the main system remains located
over southern California. Across Kansas, broad synoptic lift
from the approaching shortwave continues to support the
development and persistence of widespread showers generally
along and north of US-54 this morning. As this system slowly
lifts northward today, rain chances will gradually end from
south to north. Lingering low rain chances may persist into this
evening along the I-70 corridor as a result of weak deformation
band; however, any rainfall from this should be relatively
light. At the low levels, northerly winds on the back side of
the surface low will usher in cooler air today with many areas
across central Kansas struggling to rise above the 40s this
afternoon.

With clearer skies and westerly winds on Saturday, temperatures
should have an easy time recovering back into the 60s area wide
during the afternoon hours. However, this break in active
weather will be short-lived as the next system is forecast to
arrive on Sunday. Similar to Thursday`s rainfall event, broad
synoptic lift from height falls and vorticity advection aloft
will support a large swath of rainfall that sweeps across the
forecast area Sunday night through Monday afternoon with rain
chances ending from southwest to northeast. On the back side of
another surface low that will traverse across the forecast area,
low-level cold air advection on Tuesday, supported by breezy
northwesterly winds, will establish a cooler and drier air mass
across the region that is expected to persist through the
remainder of next week. Afternoon temperatures Tuesday through
Friday will be in the 40s and 50s with overnight lows in the 20s
and low 30s.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1114 AM CST Fri Nov 21 2025

Main aviation concern will be low cigs and pockets of lower vis
into the early evening.

What is left of the upper impulse is tracking across northeast
KS with widespread light rain remaining across northern KS.
Widespread IFR/LIFR remains in place at all sites with the
exception of KCNU and the current conditions at all sites will
likely persist through the remainder of the afternoon into the
early evening hours. Will also see some BR/-RA mixed-in across
mainly central KS through around 00z as the wrap around area of
this system pivots around. We will start to see ceilings start
to improve across central KS around 03z with the improved cigs
working south overnight.

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...JC
AVIATION...RBL