116
FXUS63 KICT 221918
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
218 PM CDT Wed Jul 22 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- There are chances for showers/storms to affect some of the
  region over the next 48hrs, severe weather potential is low

- Hotter temperatures and dry weather conditions expected to
  return for the weekend and persist through middle of next week
  along with dangerous heat indices

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 213 PM CDT Wed Jul 22 2026

Low level upslope flow will spark off storms over eastern
Colorado later this afternoon and evening. The activity will
slowly spread east tonight as low level jet increases the
moisture transport leading/feeding the complex of storms.
Limited amount of instability/shear will keep storms below
severe levels for central/eastern Kansas. There is some
potential for heavy rainfall with high precipitable water
values. The activity looks to linger through the morning hours
on Thursday, mainly for locations along and east of the Kansas
Turnpike. Meanwhile, current satellite water vapor imagery shows
embedded upper level wave with-in deep tropical plume over Utah
moving northward. Models show this system being picked up by
the west/northwest flow regime aloft and steered eastward across
Nebraska/Kansas for Thursday night into Friday. This will bring
more showers/storms to the region along with an uptick for
coverage. Severe weather chances will remain low given limited
wind shear/instability combination, some areas could see locally
heavy rainfall.

Heading into the weekend models show upper level ridge shifting
eastward into the central plains which will cause the heat dome to
expand over Kansas. This pattern will persist into next week with
hotter temperatures and dry weather conditions likely to persist.
Heat indices look to climb into the dangerous range with heat
advisories needed, and the longer duration of expected heat could
potentially lead to a Extreme Heat Warning by Tuesday or Wednesday
if trends continue.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1216 PM CDT Wed Jul 22 2026

VFR conditions are expected throughout the TAF period. An area
of showers and thunderstorms may impact portions of central
Kansas by the early morning hours but should be fairly short
lived as they move southeastward. Thinking KHUT should be just
west of this activity and KICT may even miss out as this area
may stay just east. Winds will overall remain easterly with the
exception of TS activity disrupting the easterly flow
temporarily.

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...CDJ
AVIATION...SGS