318
FXUS63 KICT 011900
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
200 PM CDT Thu Oct 1 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Showers and storms will linger into the evening hours with
  heavy rain and flooding possible.

- If we see some clearing in parts of south central KS near the
  OK state line this afternoon, there may be a brief window
  where we could see a strong storm or two, including a low
  tornado potential.

- Dry week ahead with seasonably mild temperatures.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 147 PM CDT Thu Oct 1 2026

A mid/upper trough was situated over the Oklahoma Panhandle area
early this afternoon and it is progged to shear eastward while
filling as we move into the evening hours. Meanwhile, a cold front
bisecting central KS will gradually move south and east across
the area this evening and tonight. Widespread showers and
thunderstorms are expected to develop ahead of the mid/upper
trough targeting south central KS this afternoon and evening. We
continue to see a very moist airmass with PWATs at or above
1.75 inches which is roughly 200% of normal for early Oct.
REFS/HREF neighborhood probabilities of exceeding 2 inches of
rain in 6 hours have increased considerably (>80%) for those
along and south of Hwy 56, across much of south central KS and
the flood watch was expanded for much of the area along and west
of the Flint Hills through midnight. Some breaks in the clouds
on the eastern periphery of weak sfc low could allow for some
local heating leading to a strong storm or two near the OK state
line. Considerable cloud cover remains, so confidence remains
fairly low but a locally strong storm or two could be possible.
A stable post-frontal airmass will gradually build southward
across the region tonight with rain chances diminishing as we
move through the overnight hours.

Friday--Thursday...a stable post-frontal regime will be in place Fri-
Sat with breezy winds gradually subsiding as we move through the day
on Friday. The mid/upper flow will transition to a NW flow regime as
we move through the week with mild and dry weather anticipated.
An extended period of dry and warm conditions are anticipated
with above normal temperatures returning to the area Tuesday-
Thursday.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1234 PM CDT Thu Oct 1 2026

The main aviation concern continues to be shower and
thunderstorm chances this afternoon and evening.

Showers were ongoing across much of central Kansas early this
afternoon and more activity is expected to develop ahead of an
approaching upper level storm system. Widespread shower and
thunderstorm activity, some with heavy rain, is expected to
impact much of south central Kansas this afternoon and early
evening. Heavy rainfall may result in IFR at times before the
activity gradually diminishes during the mid evening hours. Low
cigs (MVFR or perhaps IFR) may follow the shower and storm
activity, however a more stable post-frontal airmass will
gradually build southward allowing VFR to return from north to
south as we move through the overnight hours. Gusty northerly
winds will also develop in the wake of the front with some gusts
of 25-30 mph possible at times through the overnight hours.

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flood Watch until midnight CDT tonight for KSZ032-033-047>053-
067>070-082-083-091-092.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...MWM
AVIATION...MWM