841
FXUS63 KICT 211131
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
631 AM CDT Fri Aug 21 2026

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Periodic thunderstorm chances through next week, mainly during
  the evening, night, morning hours. A handful of strong to
  severe thunderstorms possible.

- Near to above average temperatures through next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 202 AM CDT Fri Aug 21 2026

THUNDERSTORM CHANCES:

Model consensus keeps a stout upper ridge anchored across the
southern to southwest CONUS the next several days. This will keep
the Kansas region within a northwest flow aloft pattern favorable
for periodic thunderstorm chances, underneath a persistent mid-level
thermal gradient. Unfortunately, predicting exactly when/where
thunderstorms will form and track is extremely difficult in patterns
like this, making for a low confidence forecast. Seasonable
instability combined with modest deep layer shear (with a decent
directional component given the NW flow aloft) will support periodic
strong to severe storm chances.

Thinking isolated to scattered thunderstorm chances will exist
overnight into early this morning generally along/west of the Flint
Hills. While a marginally severe storm capable of dime-quarter size
hail can`t be ruled out given the decent deep layer effective shear,
widespread severe weather looks unlikely.

Another signal for scattered elevated thunderstorms exists from
early this evening through tonight, as 800-600mb warm advection
commences once again ahead of shortwave energy dropping southeast
across the upper Midwest. Instability and directional shear combo
will favor a few strong to severe thunderstorms. This activity could
linger into early Saturday morning.

Much of Saturday and Saturday evening look dry, with additional
storm chances arriving from the northwest late Saturday night and
Sunday. As mentioned earlier, these off-and-on thunderstorm chances
look to continue much of next week.

TEMPERATURES:

With the stout upper ridge remaining anchored within fairly close
proximity of the Kansas region, near to above average temperatures
are expected through at least the next 7-10 days. Afternoon through
early evening heat indices look to be in the 95 to 105 degree range,
highest over south-central and southeast KS. Not anticipating any
heat headline issuances on this shift.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 628 AM CDT Fri Aug 21 2026

Hit-or-miss showers and thunderstorms will persist across
portions of the southeast quarter of Kansas through about mid-
morning today. Small hail, gusty winds, and brief heavy rain may
accompany the strongest activity.

Another round of showers and thunderstorms is possible later
today through tonight. Uncertainty is high surrounding the
timing and location of these showers/thunderstorms, so only
included PROB30 groups for now.

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...ADK
AVIATION...ADK