085
FXUS63 KICT 112331
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
531 PM CST Tue Nov 11 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Warm and dry conditions persisting through Saturday.

- Precipitation chances will begin to increase Sunday night into
  Monday as a storm system emerges from the Southern Rockies.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 245 PM CST Tue Nov 11 2025

Currently, a deep trough is exiting the U.S. off the East Coast
while ridging is building in from the southwest. Northwesterly flow
aloft has been reestablished over the region. A weak surface trough
is passing over the area this afternoon leading to light and
variable winds along with a few mid-level clouds. As heights
dramatically increase today, temperatures have warmed significantly
compared to the past couple of days. Afternoon highs in the 60s to
even around 70 degrees are being realized.

Going forward through the end of the week and into Saturday,
afternoon highs will continue to run about 10-15 degrees above
normal with temperatures generally ranging from the middle 60s to
middle 70s. Overnight lows will remain in the 40s and 50s through
the week. With high pressure dominating the weather pattern this
week, mostly sunny and dry conditions are expected.

The next feature to impact the forecast area will arrive on Sunday
as a trough ejecting out of the Rockies. There is still some
discrepancy as to when and where this system will track exactly.
Newest model guidance slows down the surface low and tracks it
overhead the forecast area. This trend, compared to the further
south solution from yesterday, results in later and lower rain
chances. We`re currently looking at 20-30 POPs for Sunday, then
slightly better chances (30-40%) on Monday. If this system shifts a
little further south again, our rain chances could increase
slightly. Along with rain chances, this system will also bring a
cold front to the area. This will bring cooler, near normal
temperatures to the region for early next week with highs only
reaching into the upper 50s to lower 60s.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 520 PM CST Tue Nov 11 2025

Aviation concerns are expected to remain on the low side through
the next 24 hours.

Weak high pressure will keep light winds and most clear skies in
place through the next 24 hours. Light northwest and north winds
will be in place tonight and will come around to the east by Wed
afternoon and will remain on the light side.

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...AMD
AVIATION...RBL