126
FXUS63 KICT 252316
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
616 PM CDT Fri Sep 25 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- On-and-off showers and storms persist into Saturday morning.
  Some strong to severe wind gusts are possible later this
  afternoon and evening across south central KS, though the
  severe threat is low at this time.

- Storm chances return on Saturday, with strong to marginally
  severe activity possible in the afternoon and early evening
  across portions of central and south central KS.

- Mostly dry Sunday and Monday before rain chances return
  perhaps as early as Tuesday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 218 PM CDT Fri Sep 25 2026

Water vapor imagery and RAP analysis this afternoon depict a
mid/upper wave ejecting out of the Rockies into the Plains. An
anomalous fetch of moisture characterized by PWs ranging from 150-
200% of normal for this time of year accompanies this feature and
spans from Baja California to the Central Plains and beyond.
Additionally, a region of showers and weak storms is seen across the
TX/OK Panhandles and southwest KS amidst strong 850-700 mb moisture
transport. These will continue shifting northeast and increase in
coverage across the forecast area later this afternoon and evening
as the wave continues its northeast track. Similar to Thursday, the
overall severe threat appears low at this time considering
pseudoadiabatic lapse rates, though effective shear around
25-35 kts could result in some storm organization leading to
strong to marginally severe wind gusts mainly west of I-135.
Heavy rainfall may also lead to localized flooding concerns due
to the persistent tropical airmass and moist antecedent soil
conditions.

Activity will continue into Saturday morning across eastern KS as
the mid/upper impulse shifts toward the Upper Mississippi Valley. By
late afternoon, warming surface temperatures within the moist
airmass will yield MLCAPE in the 1000-2000 J/kg range across
portions of central and south central KS ahead of an approaching
weak surface trough. This may lead to isolated strong to severe
storms capable of strong winds and marginally severe hail through
the evening hours, thought effective shear around 20-25 kts should
preclude widespread severe weather. As has been the case for the
last several days, the primary hazard will remain heavy rainfall
leading to localized flooding.

Rain chances will push eastward heading into Sunday morning with
perhaps a handful of showers lingering across southeast KS by
sunrise. Besides this, most of the area should remain dry Sunday
into Monday with mid/upper ridging overhead. This break in rain
chances will be short-lived, however, as global models carry a
potent wave into the southwest CONUS by late Monday night.
Strengthening low-level moisture transport over the region should
promote the development of showers and storms by Tuesday as the
upper low slides eastward, and by the middle of the week, this upper
system looks to absorb a tropical disturbance coming out of Baja
California. This will allow for continued showers and storms through
Thursday within another anomalously-moist airmass. This solution
will likely be dependent on how progressive the upper wave is,
however, and with little run-to-run consensus among long-range
deterministic solutions, confidence in the details (such as rainfall
totals and duration) remains low at this time. Stay tuned.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 613 PM CDT Fri Sep 25 2026

Scattered showers and thunderstorms will expand in coverage this
evening, including near RSL/GBD/SLN/HUT/ICT. Adjusted the TEMPO
mentions are those times to account for the slightly later
arrival times. This round of -SHRA/-TSRA should clear the
terminals near 06Z. Additional -SHRA/-TSRA are possible after
12Z Saturday across portions of central/south-central KS and
addressed this potential with a PROB30 at HUT/ICT. Otherwise,
southerly winds will increase after sunrise to 10-15 kt with
gusts up to 25 kt.

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...JWK
AVIATION...BRF